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Version 57 | Version 58 |
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Brexit: What happens now? | Brexit: What happens now? |
(1 day later) | |
A law designed to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October has been passed. | |
If a deal is not agreed between the UK and EU by 19 October, and MPs don't vote in favour of leaving with no deal, then the prime minister - currently Boris Johnson - will be legally obliged to ask the EU for a Brexit delay. | |
There are a number of scenarios that could now happen. | |
Get a new deal | |
Boris Johnson says he is trying to negotiate a new deal with the EU. If that happened and MPs backed it before 31 October there would be no need for an extension. | |
The existing deal negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May and her government has been defeated in the House of Commons several times - and Mr Johnson has said it is dead. | |
The government wants a deal with no backstop - a measure aimed at preventing any possibility of border posts and checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. | |
But while the EU has said it would consider any new UK proposals, it has repeatedly stated the backstop is a critical part of the deal. | |
Try to get round the law designed to block no-deal Brexit | |
If there is no new deal, and the prime minister refuses to seek an extension there is likely to be a legal battle. | |
Cabinet ministers have said the government will obey the law, but the prime minister has said he will not ask for an extension. There has been some speculation about finding a loophole in the law or using some other device to avoid Mr Johnson himself having to ask for the extension. The idea of a loophole has been played down by former Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption. | |
No-deal Brexit on 31 October | No-deal Brexit on 31 October |
The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT. | |
Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree. | Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree. |
Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier. | Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier. |
Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated. | Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated. |
Early election | |
Prime Minister Boris Johnson still wants to have an election soon. But any election will definitely happen after 31 October, when the UK is due to leave the EU. | |
That's because Parliament is suspended - or prorogued - until 14 October and from that point there must be at least 25 working days until a general election happens. That takes us right into the middle of November at least. | |
There are different ways it could be triggered. | |
The government has twice failed to get two-thirds of MPs to support an early election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. But the opposition could support an election in a third vote. | |
The alternative is a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs. | |
There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government. | |
Vote of no confidence | Vote of no confidence |
At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. | |
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion. There's also been a suggestion that Boris Johnson could call a no confidence vote in his own government. | Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion. There's also been a suggestion that Boris Johnson could call a no confidence vote in his own government. |
If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence. | If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence. |
If no-one does then a general election would follow. | |
Cancel Brexit | Cancel Brexit |
There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. | There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. |
But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. | But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. |
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