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Brexit: What happens now? Brexit: What happens now?
(14 days later)
On 10 April the UK and the EU agreed a second delay to Brexit until 31 October. Theresa May is standing down as leader of the Conservative Party and soon there will be a new prime minister. What is going to happen with Brexit?
Cross-party talks between the government and Labour to try to find a compromise ended without an agreement. After the UK and the EU agreed a second delay to Brexit, it is due to happen on 31 October. Cross-party talks between the government and Labour to try to find a compromise ended without an agreement.
The government will now bring forward the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to the House of Commons in early June. Theresa May repeatedly lost votes in the House of Commons on her deal.
The UK will take part in European Parliament elections on 23 May. But the government still hopes that the elected MEPs will never have to take their seats. Now a new Conservative leader will be chosen and will become prime minister. The plan is that the process should be concluded before the summer recess - the moment in late July when Parliament takes a break. What happens next on Brexit will depend on who wins.
If the WAB passes - bringing the withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU into UK law - then Brexit could happen before the 31 October deadline. Some leadership candidates have suggested they're comfortable with a no-deal Brexit - leaving the European Union without a formal agreement in place.
The withdrawal agreement is the legally binding part of the Brexit deal that covers exit terms - including money, the transition period, citizens' rights and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Others have said they'll seek to renegotiate the deal or at least to agree amendments with the EU.
The government hopes to win over MPs by making legal commitments on workers rights and environmental protection after Brexit and by giving Northern Ireland a greater say. It has also been suggested that the only way out of the impasse could be a new public vote - either a general election or a referendum.
MPs will also be given the chance to vote on options for future customs arrangements at a later stage of the bill's passage through Parliament - and there will be a vote on whether to hold a confirmatory referendum on the deal. And there could yet be a further delay.
The decisions MPs take could lead to the government requesting changes to the political declaration - the part of the Brexit deal that outlines plans for the long-term future relationship between the UK and EU.
However, if MPs reject the WAB then we'll be back in the situation of there being a range of possible outcomes. And before any of the alternatives happens there could be a Conservative leadership election.
1. No deal1. No deal
No-deal Brexit is still the default outcome if MPs can't agree anything else and there are no further extensions. No-deal Brexit is still the default outcome if MPs can't agree anything else and there are no further extensions. The deadline is 31 October.
With the UK now taking part in European elections, the next deadline is 31 October. It would also be possible for MPs to back a no-deal Brexit although there has been a majority against that option when they have voted on it before.
It would also be possible for MPs to back a no-deal Brexit - although there has been a majority against that option when they have voted on it before. There's been considerable discussion about whether MPs would be able to stop no deal if the new prime minister were determined to press ahead.
2. Major renegotiation It's true that the new PM could try to avoid binding votes in the House of Commons but the Speaker, John Bercow, has made it clear that he will enable attempts by MPs to have their say.
The government could choose to negotiate a completely new Brexit deal - perhaps in accordance with votes of MPs. And ultimately the prime minister can be ousted if they lose a confidence vote.
This wouldn't be a question of making small additions to the political declaration. 2. Renegotiation
Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time - perhaps involving a rewrite of the withdrawal agreement which would take much longer. The new prime minister could choose to try to negotiate a new Brexit deal.
If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead. Some of the alternative proposals put forward by the leadership candidates would require changing the withdrawal agreement - the legally binding part of the Brexit deal that covers exit terms - including money, the transition period, citizens' rights and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
However, the EU has so far said it is not prepared to re-open this part of the deal.
The alternative would be changes to the political declaration - the part that outlines plans for the long-term future relationship between the UK and EU.
The potential difficulty with that approach is that it might not be enough to convert the critics who repeatedly voted against Theresa May's deal.
Also, there is very little time for renegotiation between now and 31 October. Parliament in the UK is away for the whole of August, not returning until September. Parliament again goes into recess in the middle of September for the party conference season.
Nothing much is usually done in Brussels during August and much attention will be focused on the picking of the new European Commission which takes office on 1 November.
3. Another referendum3. Another referendum
A further possibility is to hold another referendum.A further possibility is to hold another referendum.
It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which was legally non-binding and advisory. But some MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result would automatically take effect - like with the 2011 referendum on changing the voting system for UK general elections.It could have the same status as the 2016 referendum, which was legally non-binding and advisory. But some MPs want to hold a binding referendum where the result would automatically take effect - like with the 2011 referendum on changing the voting system for UK general elections.
One widely discussed option would be for a "confirmatory vote" on whatever deal is finally agreed where the public would be given the choice between accepting the deal or remaining in the EU. One widely discussed option would be for a "confirmatory vote" on whatever deal is finally agreed where the public would be given the choice between accepting the existing deal (or an alternative plan) and remaining in the EU.
MPs would get a chance to vote for this kind of referendum if the WAB gets through its second reading.
Others argue that any further referendum should have the option of leaving the EU without a deal.Others argue that any further referendum should have the option of leaving the EU without a deal.
Either way, a referendum can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.Either way, a referendum can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.
There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.
It couldn't be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.It couldn't be rushed through, because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.
The question is then defined in the legislation.The question is then defined in the legislation.
Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.Once the legislation has been passed, the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.
Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks. Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks. That already takes us beyond 31 October.
4. Call a general election4. Call a general election
Theresa May could decide the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election. The new prime minister could decide the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election.
She doesn't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. They won't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, they could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.
5. Another no-confidence vote5. Another no-confidence vote
The government survived a vote of no confidence on 16 January by 325 votes to 306. Labour could table another no confidence motion at any time. Theresa May's government survived a vote of no confidence on 16 January by 325 votes to 306. Labour could table a no confidence motion in the new government at any time.
Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, UK general elections are only supposed to happen every five years. The next one is due in 2022.Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, UK general elections are only supposed to happen every five years. The next one is due in 2022.
But a vote of no confidence lets MPs vote on whether they want the government to continue. The motion must be worded: "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government."But a vote of no confidence lets MPs vote on whether they want the government to continue. The motion must be worded: "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government."
If a majority of MPs vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown.If a majority of MPs vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown.
If during that time the current government or any other alternative government cannot win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.If during that time the current government or any other alternative government cannot win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election would be called.
That election cannot happen for at least 25 working days.That election cannot happen for at least 25 working days.
6. Cancel Brexit6. Cancel Brexit
The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries).The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries).
With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.
It's not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.It's not totally clear what the process would be. But an act of Parliament calling for Article 50 to be revoked would probably be sufficient.
Other possibilities None of the Conservative leadership contenders has suggested this would be their policy but it could still be the ultimate outcome - possibly after one of the other options has been tried.
Theresa May has said she will step down if her deal is passed. 7. Return of the existing deal
Having already survived a challenge to her leadership, there is no way she can be forced out by her party until December - under the Conservative Party rules. Although Theresa May will be out of Number 10, there's still a possibility that the deal she negotiated with the EU could end up being the blueprint for Brexit.
But she could still choose to resign if she can't get her deal through and she's not prepared to change course. If MPs can't agree on anything else some MPs who previously voted against the existing deal could switch sides to prevent no deal or no Brexit.
That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister. 8. Further delay
She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a "censure motion" - that would be a bit like a no-confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government. There's no legal obstacle to a further delay. The new government could ask for additional time - perhaps to hold another vote or to allow more preparations for a no-deal Brexit.
Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though. It's not clear whether the EU would agree. It would have to be approved unanimously by all the other member states.