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| Version 58 | Version 59 |
|---|---|
| Brexit: What happens now? | Brexit: What happens now? |
| (1 day later) | |
| A law designed to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October has been passed. Parliament is currently suspended until 14 October - although that is being challenged in the courts - so what will happen with Brexit in the coming weeks? | |
| If a deal is not agreed between the UK and EU by 19 October, and MPs don't vote in favour of leaving with no deal, then the prime minister - currently Boris Johnson - will be legally obliged to ask the EU for a Brexit delay. | If a deal is not agreed between the UK and EU by 19 October, and MPs don't vote in favour of leaving with no deal, then the prime minister - currently Boris Johnson - will be legally obliged to ask the EU for a Brexit delay. |
| There are a number of scenarios that could now happen. | There are a number of scenarios that could now happen. |
| Get a new deal | Get a new deal |
| Boris Johnson says he is trying to negotiate a new deal with the EU. If that happened and MPs backed it before 31 October there would be no need for an extension. | Boris Johnson says he is trying to negotiate a new deal with the EU. If that happened and MPs backed it before 31 October there would be no need for an extension. |
| David Frost, the prime minister's lead Brexit negotiator, is planning to be in Brussels for talks at least twice a week while Parliament is suspended (prorogued). | |
| The existing deal negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May and her government has been defeated in the House of Commons several times - and Mr Johnson has said it is dead. | The existing deal negotiated by former Prime Minister Theresa May and her government has been defeated in the House of Commons several times - and Mr Johnson has said it is dead. |
| The government wants a deal with the backstop removed. That's the measure aimed at preventing any possibility of border posts and checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. | |
| There has been some discussion that a possible option could be to go for a Northern Ireland-only backstop. In other words, Northern Ireland would remain more closely tied to the EU than the rest of the UK. | |
| Critics say that would effectively mean a border in the Irish Sea. When she was in office, Theresa May said that was something no British prime minister could accept. | |
| Try to get round the law designed to block no-deal Brexit | Try to get round the law designed to block no-deal Brexit |
| If there is no new deal, and the prime minister refuses to seek an extension there is likely to be a legal battle. | If there is no new deal, and the prime minister refuses to seek an extension there is likely to be a legal battle. |
| Cabinet ministers have said the government will obey the law, but the prime minister has said he will not ask for an extension. There has been some speculation about finding a loophole in the law or using some other device to avoid Mr Johnson himself having to ask for the extension. | |
| For example, it's been suggested that he could request an extension but at the same time tell the EU to ignore his request. | |
| The idea of a loophole has been played down by former Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption. | |
| No-deal Brexit on 31 October | No-deal Brexit on 31 October |
| The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT. | The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT. |
| Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree. | Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree. |
| Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier. | Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier. |
| Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated. | Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated. |
| Early election | Early election |
| Prime Minister Boris Johnson still wants to have an election soon. But any election will definitely happen after 31 October, when the UK is due to leave the EU. | Prime Minister Boris Johnson still wants to have an election soon. But any election will definitely happen after 31 October, when the UK is due to leave the EU. |
| That's because Parliament is suspended - or prorogued - until 14 October and from that point there must be at least 25 working days until a general election happens. That takes us right into the middle of November at least. | That's because Parliament is suspended - or prorogued - until 14 October and from that point there must be at least 25 working days until a general election happens. That takes us right into the middle of November at least. |
| There are different ways it could be triggered. | There are different ways it could be triggered. |
| The government has twice failed to get two-thirds of MPs to support an early election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. But the opposition could support an election in a third vote. | The government has twice failed to get two-thirds of MPs to support an early election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. But the opposition could support an election in a third vote. |
| The alternative is a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs. | The alternative is a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs. |
| There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government. | There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government. |
| Vote of no confidence | Vote of no confidence |
| At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. | At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. |
| Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion. There's also been a suggestion that Boris Johnson could call a no confidence vote in his own government. | Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion. There's also been a suggestion that Boris Johnson could call a no confidence vote in his own government. |
| If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence. | If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence. |
| If no-one does then a general election would follow. | If no-one does then a general election would follow. |
| Cancel Brexit | Cancel Brexit |
| There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. | There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50. |
| But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. | But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government. |
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