'Brexit: What happens now?' diff viewer (7/8)

This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on December 06, 2018 13:36 (UTC). It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

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Version 7	Version 8
Brexit vote: What could happen next?	Brexit vote: What could happen next?
2019-01-11 10:40:22 UTC	2019-01-14 03:45:13 UTC (3 days later)
~~MPs are to get their say ~~next~~ ~~week~~ on Theresa May's Brexit deal - five weeks after the vote was postponed because the government seemed likely to lose.~~	MPs are to get their say on Theresa May's Brexit deal on Tuesday - five weeks after the vote was postponed because the government seemed likely to lose.
One development is that ministers have announced proposals to give the Northern Ireland assembly in Stormont a say over new EU rules if the border backstop takes effect after Brexit. But the DUP has already rejected the proposals as meaningless, and it looks like Mrs May still does not have enough support in parliament for her deal.	One development is that ministers have announced proposals to give the Northern Ireland assembly in Stormont a say over new EU rules if the border backstop takes effect after Brexit. But the DUP has already rejected the proposals as meaningless, and it looks like Mrs May still does not have enough support in parliament for her deal.
So what would happen if the Brexit deal is rejected?	So what would happen if the Brexit deal is rejected?
Following a defeat on Wednesday (9 January), the government would now have to produce an alternative plan for Brexit within three parliamentary working days if the deal is voted down next week.	Following a defeat on Wednesday (9 January), the government would now have to produce an alternative plan for Brexit within three parliamentary working days if the deal is voted down next week.
An earlier government defeat in the Commons on 4 December means MPs do have more say in proposing alternatives to any plan of action - but these would still have to be put into law by the government.	An earlier government defeat in the Commons on 4 December means MPs do have more say in proposing alternatives to any plan of action - but these would still have to be put into law by the government.
There's also been a suggestion that MPs could express their views in a series of "indicative votes" on a variety of options. Again, though, these would not be binding.	There's also been a suggestion that MPs could express their views in a series of "indicative votes" on a variety of options. Again, though, these would not be binding.
The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries). With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.	The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries). With the government still committed to Brexit, it's very likely that a major event such as a further referendum or change of government would have to happen before such a move.
In the event that MPs do reject Mrs May's deal, one suggestion has been that the government will simply try to bring back their deal for another try, or even repeatedly. But on the assumption that MPs won't just change their minds, what other options would there be?	In the event that MPs do reject Mrs May's deal, one suggestion has been that the government will simply try to bring back their deal for another try, or even repeatedly. But on the assumption that MPs won't just change their minds, what other options would there be?
1. No deal	1. No deal
If nothing else happens, the default position would be a no-deal Brexit. The law is already in place which means the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. And, in any case, EU rules mean the UK would leave then.	If nothing else happens, the default position would be a no-deal Brexit. The law is already in place which means the UK will leave the EU on 29 March 2019. And, in any case, EU rules mean the UK would leave then.
The government would probably want to pass some legislation to prepare for no-deal but that's not strictly essential.	The government would probably want to pass some legislation to prepare for no-deal but that's not strictly essential.
MPs unhappy with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit defeated the government on 8 January - voting to limit the Treasury's ability to raise certain taxes. The move is being seen as symbolic - as the government could probably find another way to raise money - but it is an indication that MPs will try to stop no deal.	MPs unhappy with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit defeated the government on 8 January - voting to limit the Treasury's ability to raise certain taxes. The move is being seen as symbolic - as the government could probably find another way to raise money - but it is an indication that MPs will try to stop no deal.
Their ultimate sanction, if the government wouldn't budge, would be a vote of no confidence - see section four below.	Their ultimate sanction, if the government wouldn't budge, would be a vote of no confidence - see section four below.
2. Major renegotiation	2. Major renegotiation
If MPs vote against the deal, the government could propose to negotiate a new Brexit deal.	If MPs vote against the deal, the government could propose to negotiate a new Brexit deal.
This would not be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a second vote.	This would not be a question of carrying out minor tweaks and having a second vote.
Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time and might well require an extension of Article 50 to delay Brexit.	Instead, there could be a complete renegotiation that would take some time and might well require an extension of Article 50 to delay Brexit.
This would require two key steps. First, the UK would have to make a request to the EU for an extension. This could be granted but only if all EU countries agree at a vote of the EU Council.	This would require two key steps. First, the UK would have to make a request to the EU for an extension. This could be granted but only if all EU countries agree at a vote of the EU Council.
Alternative ways to break Brexit impasse	Alternative ways to break Brexit impasse
The withdrawal agreement - what it all means	The withdrawal agreement - what it all means
Number crunching: Where do MPs stand on Brexit deal?	Number crunching: Where do MPs stand on Brexit deal?
A guide to where we are with Brexit	A guide to where we are with Brexit
Second, the government would have to table a statutory instrument to change the definition of "exit day" in the EU Withdrawal Act. MPs would get a chance to vote on this change.	Second, the government would have to table a statutory instrument to change the definition of "exit day" in the EU Withdrawal Act. MPs would get a chance to vote on this change.
If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead.	If the EU refused to re-enter negotiations, the government would have to plump for one of the other options instead.
3. Call for a general election	3. Call for a general election
Theresa May could decide that the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election - in order to get a political mandate for her deal.	Theresa May could decide that the best way out of the deadlock would be to hold an early general election - in order to get a political mandate for her deal.
She doesn't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.	She doesn't have the power just to call an election. But, as in 2017, she could ask MPs to vote for an early election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.	Two-thirds of all MPs would need to support the move. The earliest date for the election would be 25 working days later but it could be after that - the prime minister would choose the precise date.
As with the "renegotiate" plan, this course of action could also involve a request to the EU to extend Article 50.	As with the "renegotiate" plan, this course of action could also involve a request to the EU to extend Article 50.
And it's not the only way an election could come about.	And it's not the only way an election could come about.
4. Vote of no confidence	4. Vote of no confidence
If the proposed deal is rejected, Labour have already indicated they would call for a formal vote of no confidence in the government. Mrs May could even call for a vote herself to try to reinforce her authority.	If the proposed deal is rejected, Labour have already indicated they would call for a formal vote of no confidence in the government. Mrs May could even call for a vote herself to try to reinforce her authority.
The rules, under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, mean there are several possible outcomes if the government loses a formal vote of no confidence.	The rules, under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, mean there are several possible outcomes if the government loses a formal vote of no confidence.
If no government is able to win a vote of confidence within 14 days - and that means neither the existing government nor any alternative - then there would be an early general election. The earliest possible date for the election would be 25 working days later.	If no government is able to win a vote of confidence within 14 days - and that means neither the existing government nor any alternative - then there would be an early general election. The earliest possible date for the election would be 25 working days later.
However, if the government wins a confidence motion within this 14-day period, perhaps by offering some new concession, it carries on.	However, if the government wins a confidence motion within this 14-day period, perhaps by offering some new concession, it carries on.
The final possibility is a change of government. That could mean another minority Conservative government with a different prime minister, a coalition government, or a minority government of a different party which had the agreement of others to back it in a confidence vote.	The final possibility is a change of government. That could mean another minority Conservative government with a different prime minister, a coalition government, or a minority government of a different party which had the agreement of others to back it in a confidence vote.
Clearly, any new government could have a different Brexit policy so the various options could be re-opened.	Clearly, any new government could have a different Brexit policy so the various options could be re-opened.
5. Another referendum	5. Another referendum
The government could instead choose to have another referendum.	The government could instead choose to have another referendum.
As with a renegotiation or early election, this might well require an extension to Article 50. It's already too late to hold a referendum before 29 March.	As with a renegotiation or early election, this might well require an extension to Article 50. It's already too late to hold a referendum before 29 March.
And it can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.	And it can't just happen automatically. The rules for referendums are set out in a law called the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.
There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.	There would have to be a new piece of legislation to make a referendum happen and to determine the rules, such as who would be allowed to vote.
It couldn't be rushed through because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.	It couldn't be rushed through because there has to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider and advise on the referendum question.
The question is then defined in the legislation.	The question is then defined in the legislation.
Once the legislation has been passed the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.	Once the legislation has been passed the referendum couldn't happen immediately either. There would have to be a statutory "referendum period" before the vote takes place.
Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.	Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks.
Even if that could be shortened a little, it would still take us well beyond the end of March.	Even if that could be shortened a little, it would still take us well beyond the end of March.
6. Other consequences	6. Other consequences
As well as the various options for what could happen with Brexit, there could be a lot of other political events going on as well.	As well as the various options for what could happen with Brexit, there could be a lot of other political events going on as well.
After Theresa May survived a challenge to her leadership, the Conservative Party's rules mean she won't face another for 12 months. But she could always decide to resign anyway if she can't get her deal through and she's not prepared to change course.	After Theresa May survived a challenge to her leadership, the Conservative Party's rules mean she won't face another for 12 months. But she could always decide to resign anyway if she can't get her deal through and she's not prepared to change course.
That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister.	That would trigger a Conservative leadership campaign which would result in the appointment of a new prime minister.
She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a "censure motion" - that would be a bit like a no confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government.	She might also come under pressure to resign if MPs pass a "censure motion" - that would be a bit like a no confidence vote but without the same automatic consequences. Again this could lead to a change in prime minister or even a change in government.
Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though.	Whoever ended up in charge would still face the same basic range of Brexit options though.