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Version 68 Version 69
Brexit: What happens now? Brexit: What happens now?
(about 8 hours later)
A new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and UK.A new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and UK.
For the first time this century, MPs sat in the House of Commons on a Saturday to debate it.For the first time this century, MPs sat in the House of Commons on a Saturday to debate it.
The new deal replaces the Northern Ireland backstop with special arrangements for Northern Ireland that will prevent a hard Irish border.The new deal replaces the Northern Ireland backstop with special arrangements for Northern Ireland that will prevent a hard Irish border.
There is also a new political declaration which sets out proposals for the long-term future relationship between the UK and the EU. There is also a new political declaration, which sets out proposals for the long-term future relationship between the UK and the EU.
A key amendment from MP Oliver Letwin has passed. It means that any support MPs give to the Brexit deal is withheld until legislation to implement the deal has been passed by MPs and Lords. A key amendment from MP Sir Oliver Letwin has passed. It means that any support MPs give to the Brexit deal is withheld until legislation to implement the deal has been passed by MPs and Lords.
Mr Johnson must now - under the so-called Benn Act - request a three-month delay to Brexit by the end of Saturday. Mr Johnson has now - compelled by the so-called Benn Act - sent a letter to the EU to request a three-month delay to Brexit.
Government sources had made clear that if Mr Letwin's amendment passed, any vote on the deal on Saturday would not be meaningful. Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg has said the government plans to hold a meaningful vote on Monday. It's not clear whether the Speaker will allow that to go ahead - he could rule it would be out of order.
Jacob Rees Mogg has said the government plans to hold a meaningful vote on Monday. It's not clear whether the Speaker will allow that to go ahead - he could rule it would be out of order.
Another option is for the government to press ahead with legislation to implement the deal next week. That could also remove the need for a separate meaningful vote.Another option is for the government to press ahead with legislation to implement the deal next week. That could also remove the need for a separate meaningful vote.
Extension requestExtension request
There has been much discussion about the scenarios where the government was forced to ask for an extension. The EU will now consider Mr Johnson's letter requesting an extension. He has made it clear that he does not want the extension but was forced legally to ask for it by sending the letter. Mr Johnson chose not to sign the letter and sent a second signed letter indicating that a delay would be a mistake.
Cabinet ministers have said the government will obey the law, but the prime minister has said he will not ask for an extension. There has been some speculation about finding a loophole in the law or using some other device to avoid Mr Johnson himself having to ask for the extension. All 27 EU nations must agree to an extension. The EU does not have to give an immediate answer.
For example, it's been suggested that he could request an extension but at the same time tell the EU to ignore his request.
If Mr Johnson refuses to write the letter asking for an extension then it's likely he will face a legal challenge. The Scottish Court of Session could rule as early as 21 October.
If the EU refuses to grant the UK a delay to Brexit then Parliament has until 31 October to pass a deal and the associated legislation.If the EU refuses to grant the UK a delay to Brexit then Parliament has until 31 October to pass a deal and the associated legislation.
No-deal Brexit on 31 OctoberNo-deal Brexit on 31 October
The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT.The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT.
Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no absolute guarantee that the other EU countries would agree.
And if MPs vote in favour of the deal, but the subsequent implementation legislation does not pass, the UK would leave without a deal on 31 October.And if MPs vote in favour of the deal, but the subsequent implementation legislation does not pass, the UK would leave without a deal on 31 October.
Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier.Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier.
Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated.Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated.
Early electionEarly election
An early election is widely expected after 31 October when Brexit is currently scheduled to happen. It's unclear, though, whether that would be later this year or early next year.An early election is widely expected after 31 October when Brexit is currently scheduled to happen. It's unclear, though, whether that would be later this year or early next year.
If Brexit is delayed, the House of Commons might be asked again by the government to back an early general election. That requires a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons and so far MPs have not been prepared to agree.If Brexit is delayed, the House of Commons might be asked again by the government to back an early general election. That requires a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons and so far MPs have not been prepared to agree.
An alternative route for the government would be a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs.An alternative route for the government would be a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs.
There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government.There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government.
Vote of no confidenceVote of no confidence
At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion.At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion.
If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence.If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence.
If no-one does then a general election would follow.If no-one does then a general election would follow.
Another referendumAnother referendum
There could also be another referendum although it would certainly require a Brexit delay and, most likely, a change of government first.There could also be another referendum although it would certainly require a Brexit delay and, most likely, a change of government first.
The referendum could have the same legal status as the one in 2016. It would be advisory, and the government would have to decide how to respond once the result was known.The referendum could have the same legal status as the one in 2016. It would be advisory, and the government would have to decide how to respond once the result was known.
An alternative would be to hold a so-called "confirmatory" referendum. That would be between a particular Brexit deal and remain - or possibly with no deal as an option. The result of this kind of referendum would be legally binding.An alternative would be to hold a so-called "confirmatory" referendum. That would be between a particular Brexit deal and remain - or possibly with no deal as an option. The result of this kind of referendum would be legally binding.
Either way, the new referendum would require legislation to be held. There would also have to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider the question wording - especially if it's a referendum with more than two options.Either way, the new referendum would require legislation to be held. There would also have to be time for the Electoral Commission to consider the question wording - especially if it's a referendum with more than two options.
Experts at the Constitution Unit at University College London say it would take a minimum of 22 weeks.Experts at the Constitution Unit at University College London say it would take a minimum of 22 weeks.
Cancel BrexitCancel Brexit
There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.
But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government.But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government.
The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.