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Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live | Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live |
(35 minutes later) | |
6.24pm GMT | |
18:24 | |
Oliver Milman | |
Much of the international fretting over the ascendancy of Donald Trump to the US presidency is focused on the real estate magnate’s pledge to “cancel” the Paris climate deal. | |
Tearing up a central plank of Barack Obama’s climate legacy by removing America from the agreement would cause shockwaves that could badly damage the global climate effort. But will that actually happen? | |
Currently, every functioning government in the world is signed up the Paris goal of limiting global warming to a 2C increase on pre-industrial times. Chinese president Xi Jingping, in a veiled jab at Trump this week, warned that “we must ensure this endeavor is not derailed.” Similar diplomatic pressure is likely to come from other nations once Trump is in the White House. | |
Quitting the Paris accord would take a three-year notice period. A quicker way would be to exit the UN climate body itself, which would take just a year. Such a move would likely cause other countries to question why they should make the effort to cut emissions if the US, historically the world’s largest emitter, can’t be bothered. | |
The latter option appears unlikely, for now at least. Shortly after his election win, Trump said that he in fact has an “open mind” to the Paris deal. And then Rex Tillerson, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, played down the prospect of complete US withdrawal last week: | |
I think it’s important that the United States maintain its seat at the table in the conversation on how to address threats of climate change. They do require a global response. | |
Perhaps the most likely outcome is ostensible US involvement in the UN climate process but with little effort to provide the climate funding or emissions reduction goals demanded by the Paris deal. Whether the Trump administration will be openly disruptive or sullen during talks remains to be seen. | |
“It isn’t clear whether his ‘seat at the table’ will be a good dinner guest or the drunk uncle,” said Jake Schmidt, director of the international program at the Natural Resources Defense Council. | |
Updated | |
at 6.24pm GMT | |
6.03pm GMT | |
18:03 | |
In partnership with the Guardian, Univision Noticias is highlighting the urgency of climate action around the world. Join Univision and Fusion environmental correspondent Nicolás Ibargüen as he discusses on Facebook Live. | |
Updated | |
at 6.24pm GMT | |
6.00pm GMT | |
18:00 | |
HOUR 11: vulnerable communities hit worst | |
We’ve heard from Jonathan Watts how experts in Brazil are anxious at the indigenous territories and fears there around a government move to change how their land is demarcated. We’ll have more on this theme later. | |
15 things you can do to make a difference | |
Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms | |
George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’ | |
The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China | |
The ever-popular climate quiz | |
And the climate clock, still ticking away | |
Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: how much does the US invest in green tech? https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/p6bkJm3xqb | |
5.56pm GMT | |
17:56 | |
Alan Yuhas | |
Shortly we’ll have live video from our partners Univision in Miami. Before that, its worth reflecting that Trump has a home in Florida which he regularly spends time at. | |
Mar-a-Lago mansion began as a cereal heiress’ dream of a presidential retreat on a south Florida beach. | |
The children of its current occupant, President-elect Donald Trump, may live to see the ocean sweep over the tennis courts, up across the long, and up to the mansion’s front door. Whether the next president accepts science or not, climate change is on course to turn his beloved resort into something closer to Atlantis than the winter White House. By 2045, a relatively weak category-two hurricane would bring the ocean up to main building of the resort, a risk consulting firm found last year. Two other Trump properties, in Hollywood and Sunny Isles, could be cut off from roads and even made temporary islands by tidal floods. | |
Just over an hour the south, Miami is already at war with the ocean, as tides floods increasingly sweep floods into the streets and homes, swamping condo lobbies and cutting off islands and bridges. The rate of sea-level rise has tripled over the last 10 years, according to a University of Miami study. City leaders have budgeted $400m to install dozens of water pumps around the city and to raise the height of roads and seawalls, but the state remains divided: real estate developers continue to build expensive condos, and the governor insists on skepticism toward science. The tides, meanwhile, continue to seep up through Florida’s porous limestone ground, threatening to destroy homes and seeping sewage into drinking water. By some researchers’ predictions, parts of south Florida appear already lost, and swaths of the state will be underwater by 2025. | |
Miami, the great world city, is drowning while the powers that be look away | |
5.45pm GMT | 5.45pm GMT |
17:45 | 17:45 |
Oliver Milman | Oliver Milman |
2016 was the warmest year, globally, on record and the second warmest year on record in the US, following the long-term warming trend. As Trump assumes the presidency, there are signs that these numbers are starting to translate into tangible consequences for Americans: | |
There are now Americans displaced due to climate change, from Louisiana to Alaska. Several Alaskan towns are set to be relocated – last year warmer than normal days outnumbered cooler than normal days in the state by a ratio of nine to one. | There are now Americans displaced due to climate change, from Louisiana to Alaska. Several Alaskan towns are set to be relocated – last year warmer than normal days outnumbered cooler than normal days in the state by a ratio of nine to one. |
Of the 10 global cities deemed by the World Bank at most risk from sea level rise, five are in the US – New York, Boston, New Orleans, Tampa and Miami. | Of the 10 global cities deemed by the World Bank at most risk from sea level rise, five are in the US – New York, Boston, New Orleans, Tampa and Miami. |
The north-east of the US is warming faster than the global average and the sea level is rising more quickly too. | |
New research, published in Nature, shows that crop harvests in the US are likely to shrink by as much as a half due to rising temperatures. States such as California, already stricken by drought, are likely to face huge “megadroughts” in the future. | |
Last year there were 15 climate-related disasters in the US that cost more than $1bn in damages. A total of 138 lives were lost. The severity of hurricanes and floods is likely to increase in parts of the US. | Last year there were 15 climate-related disasters in the US that cost more than $1bn in damages. A total of 138 lives were lost. The severity of hurricanes and floods is likely to increase in parts of the US. |
There has been a four-fold increase in the number of large, lengthy forest fires in the American west over the past 30 years. | There has been a four-fold increase in the number of large, lengthy forest fires in the American west over the past 30 years. |
While Trump may be unconcerned over the impact of climate change, the period of his presidency is likely to involve further signs that Americans are at risk. In response, Trump has so far promised to gut climate and clean energy spending, withdraw the US from the Paris climate deal and attempt to kickstart the ailing coal industry. | While Trump may be unconcerned over the impact of climate change, the period of his presidency is likely to involve further signs that Americans are at risk. In response, Trump has so far promised to gut climate and clean energy spending, withdraw the US from the Paris climate deal and attempt to kickstart the ailing coal industry. |
Public realization of scientists’ warnings has been illustrated by the latest polling by Yale University. In November, Yale found that one in five Americans are “very worried” about climate change – the highest proportion yet recorded. | Public realization of scientists’ warnings has been illustrated by the latest polling by Yale University. In November, Yale found that one in five Americans are “very worried” about climate change – the highest proportion yet recorded. |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.53pm GMT | |
5.33pm GMT | 5.33pm GMT |
17:33 | 17:33 |
Jonathan Watts | Jonathan Watts |
4) Where are the public on this issue? Is there is an ideological dividing line as in the US, or is there a broad consensus about the science? | 4) Where are the public on this issue? Is there is an ideological dividing line as in the US, or is there a broad consensus about the science? |
In 2015, 28% of Brazilian municipalities entered into emergency or calamity due to extreme weather – droughts, floods, storms, landslides. This affected millions of people so that are aware things are changing. | In 2015, 28% of Brazilian municipalities entered into emergency or calamity due to extreme weather – droughts, floods, storms, landslides. This affected millions of people so that are aware things are changing. |
We don’t face the same debate as the US about whether climate change is related to human activities. Last year, the Paris climate treaty was ratified easily despite our political crisis. Even the most conservative members on the political spectrum, the debate is more about what we do about climate change. Some say Brazil has already made the biggest contribution through deforestation reduction and renewables, which account for a little more than 70% of electricity generation and 40% of the total energy mix. The question is whether to do more. But unfortunately, climate change is not a priority for this government, as it wasn’t for the previous one. It is seen as an environmental issue, not a development issue. | We don’t face the same debate as the US about whether climate change is related to human activities. Last year, the Paris climate treaty was ratified easily despite our political crisis. Even the most conservative members on the political spectrum, the debate is more about what we do about climate change. Some say Brazil has already made the biggest contribution through deforestation reduction and renewables, which account for a little more than 70% of electricity generation and 40% of the total energy mix. The question is whether to do more. But unfortunately, climate change is not a priority for this government, as it wasn’t for the previous one. It is seen as an environmental issue, not a development issue. |
5) What does this mean in concrete terms? | 5) What does this mean in concrete terms? |
The past two years have seen a 60% rise in deforestation. Considering what is going on now in congress, we could see a new era of deforestation in Brazil. It is very alarming. We could be returning to the bad days of more than 10,000 square km of clearance each year. | The past two years have seen a 60% rise in deforestation. Considering what is going on now in congress, we could see a new era of deforestation in Brazil. It is very alarming. We could be returning to the bad days of more than 10,000 square km of clearance each year. |
6) How might climate policy be affected by the 2018 presidential election? | 6) How might climate policy be affected by the 2018 presidential election? |
I don’t think Brazil can elect someone like Trump who denies climate change, but we could have someone with very conservative ideas who sees the environment as an obstacle for development. They might argue that if US is doing nothing on climate, why should we? But one of the candidates will be former environment minister Marina Silva, who will ensure that sustainable development and climate policy are part of the debate. It’s too early though to say who might win. We don’t know who will run and what will be the impact of the ongoing corruption investigation (intro bribery at the state oil firm Petrobras). But the result will be important. The next president is the one who will have to deliver results because after 2020 Brazil’s commitments become obligations. | I don’t think Brazil can elect someone like Trump who denies climate change, but we could have someone with very conservative ideas who sees the environment as an obstacle for development. They might argue that if US is doing nothing on climate, why should we? But one of the candidates will be former environment minister Marina Silva, who will ensure that sustainable development and climate policy are part of the debate. It’s too early though to say who might win. We don’t know who will run and what will be the impact of the ongoing corruption investigation (intro bribery at the state oil firm Petrobras). But the result will be important. The next president is the one who will have to deliver results because after 2020 Brazil’s commitments become obligations. |
7) Given the current trends, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future? | 7) Given the current trends, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future? |
I’m not too gloomy, but Brazil is a country of lost opportunities. Every year, there are more groups who see forests and the environment as obstacles to development. But there are good signs too. There is room in the private sector for discussing climate change as an opportunity for Brazil to benefit from our natural capital. We need a more efficient agriculture and more renewable energy – biofuels, bio energy, wind, solar and hydro. Why not make the most of these competitive advantages? The economic benefits of climate action are huge. We are trying to make this a priority for the next president. But it won’t be easy. | I’m not too gloomy, but Brazil is a country of lost opportunities. Every year, there are more groups who see forests and the environment as obstacles to development. But there are good signs too. There is room in the private sector for discussing climate change as an opportunity for Brazil to benefit from our natural capital. We need a more efficient agriculture and more renewable energy – biofuels, bio energy, wind, solar and hydro. Why not make the most of these competitive advantages? The economic benefits of climate action are huge. We are trying to make this a priority for the next president. But it won’t be easy. |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.45pm GMT | at 5.45pm GMT |
5.19pm GMT | 5.19pm GMT |
17:19 | 17:19 |
Jonathan Watts | Jonathan Watts |
If the world is to get emissions under control, Brazil will be a key player. Over the past decade, it has played a mostly positive role, both in taking domestic action to reduce the rate of deforestation of the Amazon, and also in constructive diplomacy in international climate talks. But economic recession and political turmoil have led many to fear this might change in the future. For an insight into what might come next, I approached Carlos Rittl, executive secretary of the Brazilian Climate Observator, an umbrella organisation that represents more than 40 environment NGOs. Here’s our Q&A: | If the world is to get emissions under control, Brazil will be a key player. Over the past decade, it has played a mostly positive role, both in taking domestic action to reduce the rate of deforestation of the Amazon, and also in constructive diplomacy in international climate talks. But economic recession and political turmoil have led many to fear this might change in the future. For an insight into what might come next, I approached Carlos Rittl, executive secretary of the Brazilian Climate Observator, an umbrella organisation that represents more than 40 environment NGOs. Here’s our Q&A: |
1) Yesterday, the Brazilian justice ministry changed the rules for demarcating indigenous land. What is your take on this? | 1) Yesterday, the Brazilian justice ministry changed the rules for demarcating indigenous land. What is your take on this? |
This is really, really bad. It is the most negative change made in environmental and climate policy since the government of (Michel) Temer took power last year. Indigenous territories are critical for Brazil’s climate resilience. This new move threatens even already demarcated lands, yet the justice ministry moved ahead without any public debate, any discussion with the people affected. It shows what a myopic view the new government has when it comes to land use. | This is really, really bad. It is the most negative change made in environmental and climate policy since the government of (Michel) Temer took power last year. Indigenous territories are critical for Brazil’s climate resilience. This new move threatens even already demarcated lands, yet the justice ministry moved ahead without any public debate, any discussion with the people affected. It shows what a myopic view the new government has when it comes to land use. |
2) How else has climate policy changed since the switch of government from the centre-left administration of Dilma Rousseff to the centre-right administration of Michel Temer? | 2) How else has climate policy changed since the switch of government from the centre-left administration of Dilma Rousseff to the centre-right administration of Michel Temer? |
In terms of Brazil’s goals, there has been no change. But there has been a shift in attitude that could affect whether those targets are achieved. There are many proposals that are bad for the climate. The administration wants to soften environmental legislation and reduce protected areas. Before Temer came to power, he outlined his approach in a document called Bridge to the Future. It contained no reference to climate or renewables. The only reference to the environment was a promise to weaken the environmental licensing process. | In terms of Brazil’s goals, there has been no change. But there has been a shift in attitude that could affect whether those targets are achieved. There are many proposals that are bad for the climate. The administration wants to soften environmental legislation and reduce protected areas. Before Temer came to power, he outlined his approach in a document called Bridge to the Future. It contained no reference to climate or renewables. The only reference to the environment was a promise to weaken the environmental licensing process. |
3) One of the reasons for the political shift has been the rise of the agribusiness and evangelical lobbies in congress. What are their goals when it comes to climate policy? | 3) One of the reasons for the political shift has been the rise of the agribusiness and evangelical lobbies in congress. What are their goals when it comes to climate policy? |
There is a danger that Brazil’s climate policy could shift backwards. Agribusiness presents itself as the solution to current economic crisis. They say they need more investment and more support and changes to land policy. The decision made by the ministry of justice yesterday is connected to that. They also want to prevent agribusinesses from having to do annual environmental licensing renewals. They want approval for mining in indigenous territories and protected areas. They are also pushing for more infrastructure to make their business easier. For example on the Tapajos river, they don’t just want more dams, but also waterways so soy can be shipped from central Brazil to Europe. All this will make it more difficult for Brazil to deliver on its 2020 climate goals. They are also trying to remove the environment minister from his post because he is trying to do his job. | There is a danger that Brazil’s climate policy could shift backwards. Agribusiness presents itself as the solution to current economic crisis. They say they need more investment and more support and changes to land policy. The decision made by the ministry of justice yesterday is connected to that. They also want to prevent agribusinesses from having to do annual environmental licensing renewals. They want approval for mining in indigenous territories and protected areas. They are also pushing for more infrastructure to make their business easier. For example on the Tapajos river, they don’t just want more dams, but also waterways so soy can be shipped from central Brazil to Europe. All this will make it more difficult for Brazil to deliver on its 2020 climate goals. They are also trying to remove the environment minister from his post because he is trying to do his job. |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.24pm GMT | at 5.24pm GMT |
5.17pm GMT | 5.17pm GMT |
17:17 | 17:17 |
Mark Oliver | Mark Oliver |
Over the next few hours we’ll also be hearing from our Latin American correspondent, Jonathan Watts. First up he’s been speaking to a key expert in Brazil, a key country. | Over the next few hours we’ll also be hearing from our Latin American correspondent, Jonathan Watts. First up he’s been speaking to a key expert in Brazil, a key country. |
Later we’ll hear about his trip to Patagonia, and how climate change is affecting something a lot of people hold dear: coffee. | Later we’ll hear about his trip to Patagonia, and how climate change is affecting something a lot of people hold dear: coffee. |
5.07pm GMT | 5.07pm GMT |
17:07 | 17:07 |
Alan Yuhas | Alan Yuhas |
Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, is the outgoing chief executive of ExxonMobil, the oil giant under investigation for possibly defrauding investors about what it knew and did about climate change. | Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, is the outgoing chief executive of ExxonMobil, the oil giant under investigation for possibly defrauding investors about what it knew and did about climate change. |
Shortly after Barack Obama’s election in 2009, Tillerson announced his support for a carbon tax – if only because he considers it preferable to cap and trade policies – but environmental groups have denounced Tillerson’s nomination. Tillerson does not deny that climate change is real, but in a hearing with Congress last week refused to answer a question about whether ExxonMobil had tried to sow doubt about the science. | Shortly after Barack Obama’s election in 2009, Tillerson announced his support for a carbon tax – if only because he considers it preferable to cap and trade policies – but environmental groups have denounced Tillerson’s nomination. Tillerson does not deny that climate change is real, but in a hearing with Congress last week refused to answer a question about whether ExxonMobil had tried to sow doubt about the science. |
Tillerson told Senator Tim Kaine, “I’m in no position to speak” for his company’s executives, until the frustrated congressman asked, “Do you lack the knowledge to answer my question, or are you refusing to do so?” | Tillerson told Senator Tim Kaine, “I’m in no position to speak” for his company’s executives, until the frustrated congressman asked, “Do you lack the knowledge to answer my question, or are you refusing to do so?” |
“A little of both,” Tillerson answered. | “A little of both,” Tillerson answered. |
Tillerson also rejected the Pentagon’s warning that climate change is a national security risk and would only say the US will “keep a seat at the table” in the international effort to curb global warming. Trump has previously promised to quit the Paris climate deal. | Tillerson also rejected the Pentagon’s warning that climate change is a national security risk and would only say the US will “keep a seat at the table” in the international effort to curb global warming. Trump has previously promised to quit the Paris climate deal. |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.14pm GMT | at 5.14pm GMT |
5.00pm GMT | 5.00pm GMT |
17:00 | 17:00 |
HOUR TEN: Obama’s legacy on climate not perfect either | HOUR TEN: Obama’s legacy on climate not perfect either |
Mark Oliver | Mark Oliver |
As we’ve pointed out in the previous post, Obama’s legacy is far from perfect. | As we’ve pointed out in the previous post, Obama’s legacy is far from perfect. |
But it’s fair to say there are greater fears around the Trump administration’s key cabinet posts relating to climate change. Alan Yuhas is about to post on the pick for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. Also ahead we’ll have more video from New York’s rooftops. | But it’s fair to say there are greater fears around the Trump administration’s key cabinet posts relating to climate change. Alan Yuhas is about to post on the pick for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. Also ahead we’ll have more video from New York’s rooftops. |
Highlights: | Highlights: |
15 things you can do to make a difference | 15 things you can do to make a difference |
Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms | Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms |
George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’ | George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’ |
The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China | The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China |
The ever-popular climate quiz | The ever-popular climate quiz |
And the climate clock, still ticking away | And the climate clock, still ticking away |
Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: he claimed the planet is freezing, but 2016 was the hottest yet #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/OTdZHWkrez | Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: he claimed the planet is freezing, but 2016 was the hottest yet #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/OTdZHWkrez |
Updated | Updated |
at 5.11pm GMT | at 5.11pm GMT |