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Global warning: live from the climate-change frontline as Trump becomes president Global warning: live from the climate-change frontline as Trump becomes president
(35 minutes later)
10.06am GMT
10:06
Mark Rice-Oxley
Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year ever, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times.
The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:
Updated
at 10.13am GMT
10.04am GMT
10:04
HOUR THREE: the UK, flooding – and the carbon countdown clock
Mark Rice-Oxley
So the UK is by no means immune to climate change, and in the next hour, we’ll discover that that goes for Europe too.
Do keep your comments coming – there’s a really vibrant debate going on below the line. If you would prefer a Spanish version, have a look at what our partners Univision are doing here. And if you fancy contributing something more artistic or visual, then Tumblr is the place to go.
Finally, our fact of the hour, on the hour, every hour. Well, five minutes late – sorry about that.
Updated
at 10.05am GMT
9.57am GMT
09:57
Severin Carrell
The UK’s attempts to cut its CO2 emissions are in real danger of being undermined unless ministers tackle the continuing erosion of peatlands, which store several billion tonnes of carbon, Scottish environment campaigners have warned.
Recent studies estimate that damaged peatlands – most frequently found in upland areas, already release about 16m tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year through erosion, burning for grouse shooting and overgrazing. Scientists expect that to worsen dramatically as rising temperatures dry out peatland in rain-starved areas, and extreme weather events increase, without concerted effort to protect and conserve them. That in turn will increase flash flooding of lowland towns and villages.
Scientists estimate that Scottish peatlands, which cover about a quarter of Scotland’s landmass, lock up about 1.7 gigatonnes of CO2.
Jonny Hughes, chief executive of the Scottish Wildlife Trust and chair of the UK’s International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) peatlands project said:
Peatlands are just not in good enough health to withstand the effects of climate change in the coming decades.
Watching peatland landscapes washed away due to climate change sounds like a dystopian nightmare. Yet climate modelling predicts it to be a very real threat, leading to the loss of millions of tonnes of carbon and the destruction of an entire living ecosystem.”
9.52am GMT
09:52
Emily Wilson
Here are three more tips on individual action you can take to help, courtesy of Chris Goodall:
LEDs (light-emitting diodes) have become cheap and effective. If you have any energy-guzzling halogen lights in your house – many people have them in kitchens and bathrooms – it makes good financial and carbon sense to replace as many as possible with their LED equivalents. They should last at least 10 years, meaning you avoid the hassle of buying new halogen bulbs every few months. Not only will your CO2 footprint fall, but because LEDs are so efficient, you will also help reduce the need for national grids to turn on the most expensive and polluting power stations at peak demand times on winter evenings.
Frequent use of a tumble dryer will add to your energy bill to an extent that may surprise you. But when buying a new appliance, don’t assume you will benefit financially from buying the one with the lowest level of energy consumption. There’s often a surprising premium to really efficient fridges or washing machines.
Consume less. Simply buying less stuff is a good route to lower emissions. A new woollen man’s suit may have a carbon impact equivalent to your home’s electricity use for a month. A single T-shirt may have caused emissions equal to two or three days’ typical power consumption. Buying fewer and better things has an important role to play.
Updated
at 9.54am GMT
9.49am GMT
09:49
Damian Carrington
Turning our attention to the UK, climate change is already affecting parts of Britain, principally by increasing the risk of extreme flooding and heatwaves, and on Wednesday the government accepted almost all of the current and future risks set out by its official advisors, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
The CCC’s report, published in July, concluded the UK was poorly prepared for global warming and set out six priority risk areas. The first two were rated as high risk now, with more action needed.
Flooding already causes £1bn of damage every year on average but the risks will rise yet further as climate change leads to more intense rainfall, bringing floods to places not currently in danger. The number of households at significant risk of flooding will more than double to 1.9m by 2050, if the global temperature rises by 4C.
The deadly heatwave of 2003, which peaked at 38.5C in the UK, will be a normal summer by the 2040s, leading to heat-related deaths more than tripling. There are currently no policies to ensure homes, schools, hospitals and offices remain tolerable in high heat.
Severe water shortages are expected as summers get drier and, by the 2050s, will extend across the UK. If temperatures are driven up significantly, many places in the UK will have a demand for water 2.5 times greater than that available.
Climate change is likely to drive food prices up, with extreme weather leading to lost crops and price shocks. About 40% of UK food is imported, making the UK vulnerable to droughts and floods driven by climate change around the world.
The proportion of prime farmland is expected to fall from 38% to 9% with significant warming, and crop growing in eastern England and Scotland could be ended by degraded soil and water shortages. Warming seas are pushing key species northwards, which may affect the entire marine food chain.
New dangers may invade the UK as the climate gets warmer and requires urgent research. “The impacts are potentially high for otherwise healthy people, animals and plants,” the report states. “Higher temperatures will lead to an increased risk of the Asian tiger mosquito, the vector of Chikungunya virus, dengue fever and Zika virus. The current risk remains low, but may increase in the future.”
The CCC also warned that climate-stoked wars and migration around the world could have very significant consequences for the UK, through disrupted trade and more military intervention overseas.
On Wednesday, environment minister Lord Gardiner said
Our changing climate is one of the most serious environmental challenges that we face as a nation and that is why we are taking action, from improving flood defences across the country to securing our critical food and water supplies.
Professor Hugh Montgomery, at University College London added:
Acting on climate change can also boost people’s health. If we get it right, our efforts to tackle climate change avoid some of these risks, and directly benefit health: renewable power doesn’t generate health-damaging pollutants, for example, while walking or cycling improves health.”
And with that in mind, here come some more tips:
Updated
at 9.50am GMT
9.35am GMT9.35am GMT
09:3509:35
James WalshJames Walsh
We’ve had some great comments below the line this morning. If you have any questions for our head of environment, Damian Carrington, please post them there. We’ll hold an answer session at 1pm.We’ve had some great comments below the line this morning. If you have any questions for our head of environment, Damian Carrington, please post them there. We’ll hold an answer session at 1pm.
Herewith some intriguing comments.Herewith some intriguing comments.
Stefana Broadbent wonders about a “spiral of silence” caused by people fearing to speak out:Stefana Broadbent wonders about a “spiral of silence” caused by people fearing to speak out:
Thank you for this front page rolling update. The importance of your constant reminder of the topic is really crucial. In a recent series of studies we saw that people rarely talk about climate change at home or with friends even though they are extremely worried about it. https://medium.com/if-you-want-to/silence-about-climate-change-doesnt-mean-behaviours-aren-t-changing-56b1cbdbf440#.rs589m3my. This "spiral of silence" is brought about by the feeling that people around us don't share the concern and it could be embarrassing to raise the issue. Your articles therefore not only inform but reassure many of us that the topic is important and we are not alone in our concern. Interestingly we also found that people are silently changing their habits much more than they publicly discuss. This at least is encouraging.Thank you for this front page rolling update. The importance of your constant reminder of the topic is really crucial. In a recent series of studies we saw that people rarely talk about climate change at home or with friends even though they are extremely worried about it. https://medium.com/if-you-want-to/silence-about-climate-change-doesnt-mean-behaviours-aren-t-changing-56b1cbdbf440#.rs589m3my. This "spiral of silence" is brought about by the feeling that people around us don't share the concern and it could be embarrassing to raise the issue. Your articles therefore not only inform but reassure many of us that the topic is important and we are not alone in our concern. Interestingly we also found that people are silently changing their habits much more than they publicly discuss. This at least is encouraging.
Another Guardian commenter discusses the importance of finding common ground, regardless of wider political stances:Another Guardian commenter discusses the importance of finding common ground, regardless of wider political stances:
Thanks Guardian for putting climate change so prominently centre stage for this troubling regime change.Thanks Guardian for putting climate change so prominently centre stage for this troubling regime change.
I've been banging on in comment for a while now, that while this transition is extremely depressing there is also are also valuable opportunities.I've been banging on in comment for a while now, that while this transition is extremely depressing there is also are also valuable opportunities.
First , Rex Tillerson is an advocate of revenue neutral carbon taxation. This is exactly the kind of policy that many climate activists have been pressing for while without getting any traction with mainstream politicians.First , Rex Tillerson is an advocate of revenue neutral carbon taxation. This is exactly the kind of policy that many climate activists have been pressing for while without getting any traction with mainstream politicians.
It's an attractive policy because it fits all political persuasions including the ideology of the kind of folks that have just voted for Trump. Lets face it , we weren't doing enough anyway, this kind of radical tax overhaul to reflect the external costs of fossil fuels is the only way forward.It's an attractive policy because it fits all political persuasions including the ideology of the kind of folks that have just voted for Trump. Lets face it , we weren't doing enough anyway, this kind of radical tax overhaul to reflect the external costs of fossil fuels is the only way forward.
Let's exploit this apparent common ground with a key member of this incoming administration and hold him to his own words.Let's exploit this apparent common ground with a key member of this incoming administration and hold him to his own words.
And this commenter wonders about personal responsibility.And this commenter wonders about personal responsibility.
I haven't flown anywhere for some years for personal or financial reasons. My last trip was to Paris on Eurostar. Most people fly because its cheaper. I would travel everywhere by train if fares were more reasonable. My partner is Norwegian and we did the trip there on the ferry from Newcastle but it no longer runs and he can fly cheaper to Oslo than we can travel from Yorkshire to London. I know several people who have relatives In Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They have to fly. Maybe if alternatives were as cheap as flying we could cut down short haul significantly.I haven't eaten meat since 1979. I don't miss it. Many people I know have cut down on meat but more for health reasons.My problem is my house built in 1916. Its been a financial struggle to maintain let alone insulate it or put in double glazing which seems very poor in the UK. People I know who have it are always complaining that it fails and often needs fixing. I have no cavity walls. I have thick or insulated curtains in most rooms and I don't have heating all day. In the winter I often sit in bed if I'm reading or on the laptop to keep warm. I don't actually like central heating. It bungs up my nose and makes my eyes dry.I haven't flown anywhere for some years for personal or financial reasons. My last trip was to Paris on Eurostar. Most people fly because its cheaper. I would travel everywhere by train if fares were more reasonable. My partner is Norwegian and we did the trip there on the ferry from Newcastle but it no longer runs and he can fly cheaper to Oslo than we can travel from Yorkshire to London. I know several people who have relatives In Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They have to fly. Maybe if alternatives were as cheap as flying we could cut down short haul significantly.I haven't eaten meat since 1979. I don't miss it. Many people I know have cut down on meat but more for health reasons.My problem is my house built in 1916. Its been a financial struggle to maintain let alone insulate it or put in double glazing which seems very poor in the UK. People I know who have it are always complaining that it fails and often needs fixing. I have no cavity walls. I have thick or insulated curtains in most rooms and I don't have heating all day. In the winter I often sit in bed if I'm reading or on the laptop to keep warm. I don't actually like central heating. It bungs up my nose and makes my eyes dry.
And finally LordInsect asked for a graphic on carbon emissions. I’m happy to say we have two:And finally LordInsect asked for a graphic on carbon emissions. I’m happy to say we have two:
And this:And this:
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.38am GMT at 9.43am GMT
9.18am GMT9.18am GMT
09:1809:18
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
Before we move on to Europe and the UK, this is a neat piece of work from my colleague Nick Evershed, the Guardian’s head of data and interactives in Australia. It shows how much carbon we are emitting right now – and how much we have “left to burn” if we want to keep global warming within the 2C band considered crucial by scientists to prevent serious damage to the planet.Before we move on to Europe and the UK, this is a neat piece of work from my colleague Nick Evershed, the Guardian’s head of data and interactives in Australia. It shows how much carbon we are emitting right now – and how much we have “left to burn” if we want to keep global warming within the 2C band considered crucial by scientists to prevent serious damage to the planet.
Nick’s calculated that in just the 24 hour lifespan of this blog, the world will pump out more than 112m tons. Hard to visualise? Well let’s let the doomsday clock do the work:Nick’s calculated that in just the 24 hour lifespan of this blog, the world will pump out more than 112m tons. Hard to visualise? Well let’s let the doomsday clock do the work:
9.08am GMT9.08am GMT
09:0809:08
HOUR TWO: Africa – droughts, ice melt and rising tidesHOUR TWO: Africa – droughts, ice melt and rising tides
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
So in summary, we’ve been focussed on Africa over the past hour:So in summary, we’ve been focussed on Africa over the past hour:
rising sea levels in Alexandriarising sea levels in Alexandria
disappearing glaciers in Mt Kenyadisappearing glaciers in Mt Kenya
an insurgency partially caused by climate change in west Africaan insurgency partially caused by climate change in west Africa
and hungry people in the southand hungry people in the south
And here’s another fact for our post-truth world:And here’s another fact for our post-truth world:
Since you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQSince you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ
9.01am GMT9.01am GMT
09:0109:01
Jason BurkeJason Burke
In South Africa meanwhile, an interesting distinction: while you might find plenty of climate change denial in western countries or oil powers, or even in the White House (from tomorrow), it’s not a common feature of local conversation here.In South Africa meanwhile, an interesting distinction: while you might find plenty of climate change denial in western countries or oil powers, or even in the White House (from tomorrow), it’s not a common feature of local conversation here.
Melissa Fourie, executive director of the Centre for Environmental Rights, told me:Melissa Fourie, executive director of the Centre for Environmental Rights, told me:
In South Africa, there has been very little of the climate denialist narrative you still see in the US and elsewhere. The South African government has been vocal in its commitment to the fight against climate change for many years, and there is a genuine popular understanding of the problem and consequences of climate change.In South Africa, there has been very little of the climate denialist narrative you still see in the US and elsewhere. The South African government has been vocal in its commitment to the fight against climate change for many years, and there is a genuine popular understanding of the problem and consequences of climate change.
One reason for that is that ordinary people can already see the effects of climate change very clearly. The devastating drought that has plagued South Africa for the past two years, with ruinous knock-on effects on the rural economy and food prices, is a very real and tangible reminder of our vulnerability to climate change. We really are at the coalface of climate change, so to speak.One reason for that is that ordinary people can already see the effects of climate change very clearly. The devastating drought that has plagued South Africa for the past two years, with ruinous knock-on effects on the rural economy and food prices, is a very real and tangible reminder of our vulnerability to climate change. We really are at the coalface of climate change, so to speak.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.01am GMTat 9.01am GMT
8.54am GMT8.54am GMT
08:5408:54
Jason BurkeJason Burke
I’ve been talking to Johannes Wedenig, country representative for Unicef in Malawi about the situation there.I’ve been talking to Johannes Wedenig, country representative for Unicef in Malawi about the situation there.
He says climate change is making the weather hotter and more variable.He says climate change is making the weather hotter and more variable.
From 2000 to 2009 droughts effected 8.5 million people in Malawi, and floods affected 1.2 million. From 2010 to 2016 we have already reached 8.4 million people affected by drought and 875,000 by flooding. So we will see at least a third more over the decade if the trend continues.From 2000 to 2009 droughts effected 8.5 million people in Malawi, and floods affected 1.2 million. From 2010 to 2016 we have already reached 8.4 million people affected by drought and 875,000 by flooding. So we will see at least a third more over the decade if the trend continues.
But I’ve seen from my own experience that it’s the variability of weather phenomena that poses the greatest challenges to farmers in Malawi, especially when combined with an already fragile situation. People are selling their last assets and so are going into the next cycle even poorer, and unpredictability makes it very hard to plan and adapt.But I’ve seen from my own experience that it’s the variability of weather phenomena that poses the greatest challenges to farmers in Malawi, especially when combined with an already fragile situation. People are selling their last assets and so are going into the next cycle even poorer, and unpredictability makes it very hard to plan and adapt.
Wedenig says these changes affect the poor disproportionately.Wedenig says these changes affect the poor disproportionately.
I’ve travelled widely in Africa but when I got here last year I was really shocked by the amount of acutely malnourished children. You wouldn’t necessarily expect to see such a severe impact here but Malawi shows the impact of climate change compounded by other factors such as soil degradation, population pressure and an over-reliance on a single crop (food source) as a result of past policy decisions.I’ve travelled widely in Africa but when I got here last year I was really shocked by the amount of acutely malnourished children. You wouldn’t necessarily expect to see such a severe impact here but Malawi shows the impact of climate change compounded by other factors such as soil degradation, population pressure and an over-reliance on a single crop (food source) as a result of past policy decisions.
My colleague John Vidal was in Malawi at the end of last year, and wrote movingly about the food shortages there. Here is his piece.My colleague John Vidal was in Malawi at the end of last year, and wrote movingly about the food shortages there. Here is his piece.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.56am GMTat 8.56am GMT
8.46am GMT8.46am GMT
08:4608:46
Murithi MutigaMurithi Mutiga
In east Africa, concerns are growing that the continent’s second highest peak, Mt Kenya, could be totally ice free within decades.In east Africa, concerns are growing that the continent’s second highest peak, Mt Kenya, could be totally ice free within decades.
The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that 80% of East Africa’s glaciers have been lost since 1900. Mt Kenya has lost 92% of its glacial clover over the last century.The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that 80% of East Africa’s glaciers have been lost since 1900. Mt Kenya has lost 92% of its glacial clover over the last century.
Scientists are divided over the precise causes of the steady retreat of the glaciers but many blame rising temperatures driven by climate change.Scientists are divided over the precise causes of the steady retreat of the glaciers but many blame rising temperatures driven by climate change.
The consequences have been dire for locals. Glacial melt is one of the contributors to river flow in the region and many rivers have been drying up in recent years.The consequences have been dire for locals. Glacial melt is one of the contributors to river flow in the region and many rivers have been drying up in recent years.
Seven million people depend on agriculture fed by the vital Mt Kenya water catchment area, which provides the bulk of the tea and coffee exports that are critical to Kenya’s economy. The area also hosts heavily visited national parks and reserves.Seven million people depend on agriculture fed by the vital Mt Kenya water catchment area, which provides the bulk of the tea and coffee exports that are critical to Kenya’s economy. The area also hosts heavily visited national parks and reserves.
Although Africa has made a negligible contribution to the greenhouse emissions that cause climate change, many parts of the continent are expected to bear a great burden from the results of climate change.Although Africa has made a negligible contribution to the greenhouse emissions that cause climate change, many parts of the continent are expected to bear a great burden from the results of climate change.
Mathenge wa Iregi, who as a Gikuyu elder has spent many years offering prayers in the forests of Mt Kenya, says he does not need scientists to point out the dramatic changes upending people’s lives and considers the stance of climate-change skeptics like US president-elect Donald Trump baffling.Mathenge wa Iregi, who as a Gikuyu elder has spent many years offering prayers in the forests of Mt Kenya, says he does not need scientists to point out the dramatic changes upending people’s lives and considers the stance of climate-change skeptics like US president-elect Donald Trump baffling.
You just need to open your eyes. Mt Kenya was once a striking and impressive site and we even named it in reference to the glacial cover. Everything has changed within our lifetime. And that is simply because we human beings do not respect nature.You just need to open your eyes. Mt Kenya was once a striking and impressive site and we even named it in reference to the glacial cover. Everything has changed within our lifetime. And that is simply because we human beings do not respect nature.
8.38am GMT
08:38
Emily Wilson
Guardian columnist George Monbiot is writing today on Trump and climate change.
This is his stark take on things:
Understandably, commentators have been seeking glimpses of light in Trump’s position. But there are none.
You can read his full piece here.
8.31am GMT
08:31
Emily Wilson
Here are three more tips on how to save the planet from author Chris Goodall of Carbon Commentary:
Old gas and oil boilers can be hugely wasteful. Even if your current boiler is working well, it’s worth thinking about a replacement if it is more than 15 years old. Your fuel use may fall by a third or more, repaying the cost in lower fuel bills.
The distance you drive matters. Reducing the mileage of the average new car from 15,000 to 10,000 miles a year will save more than a tonne of CO2, about 15% of the average person’s footprint. If car travel is vital, think about leasing an electric vehicle when your existing car comes to the end of its life. A battery car will save you money on fuel, particularly if you drive tens of thousands of miles a year. Even though the electricity to charge your car will be partly generated in a gas or coal power station, electric vehicles are so much more efficient that total CO2 emissions will fall.
But bear in mind that the manufacture of an electric car may produce more emissions than the vehicle produces in its lifetime. Rather than buying a new electric vehicle, it may be better to keep your old car on the road by maintaining it properly and using it sparingly. The same is true for many other desirable items; the energy needed to make a new computer or phone is many times the amount used to power it over its lifetime. Apple says 80% of the carbon footprint of a new laptop comes from manufacturing and distribution, not use in the home.
Updated
at 8.35am GMT
8.29am GMT
08:29
Mark Rice-Oxley
Further west, the contraction of Lake Chad over the past four decades has created a very different set of problems for surrounding countries, Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon and Chad. Some experts even blame the rise of Boko Haram on the disruption to traditional ways of life that the changing landscape has brought about.
These maps show just how the lake has diminished over the decades:
Patrick Kingsley visited the region for the Guardian at the end of last year, and found locals blaming the climate as much as the insurgents for the catastrophe that had befallen them.
If the Lake Chad water was normal all these problems [with Boko Haram] would be eliminated economically, because nobody would have time to do all these things,” said Modu Amsami, a displaced person from northeast Nigeria
You can read Patrick’s piece here.
8.18am GMT
08:18
Mark Rice-Oxley
Our Egypt correspondent Ruth Michaelson has been to Alexandria to investigate the impact of rising sea levels on the city.
Ruth writes:
On the southern tip of the Mediterranean, the coastal waters are inching closer to buildings and flooded ancient structures, including the Greco-Roman tombs at Anfushi. Seawater seeping into the groundwater has also made the fragile ground more unstable, resulting in the alarming collapse of some of the city’s buildings.
The UN estimates that global sea levels will rise between 13cm and 68cm by 2050, and say that the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable – by 2080, up to 120,000 people living near the sea could be affected by rising waters if no action is taken to protect them.
Rising sea levels and seawater temperatures will also increase the salinity of the Nile, Egypt’s primary water source, and increasingly salty water sources could destroy farmland across the Nile Delta. In 2007, the World Bank estimated that 10.5% of Egypt’s population could be displaced by rising waters caused by climate change.
She visited the small town of Rosetta – famous for the stone – and found locals struggling to adapt to the unignorable advances of the sea.
You have to do what you have to do, and don’t think about the bad weather – the good weather comes from God,” a local fisherman, Ahmed Mohamed Gowayed, told her. “Last year the storm destroyed palm trees, buildings, cars – older people in their seventies said they’d never seen anything like it in their lives. If the weather continues like this I will build a stronger kiosk.
You can read Ruth’s piece full piece here.
Updated
at 8.32am GMT
8.03am GMT
08:03
HOUR ONE: facts and welcomes
Mark Rice-Oxley
We’re delighted to be working with both Tumblr and Univision today. For a version of this blog in Spanish, check out Univision’s work here. And to contribute to Tumblr’s unique exercise in creating a sort of “climate change quilt”, follow this link.
We’re also on Twitter, using #globalwarning as a hashtag ...
Right, that’s the introductions done. Later we’ll focus on climate change in the UK and Europe, but before that we’ll turn the focus to a part of the world where climate change is having one of the greatest impacts: Africa.
Updated
at 8.04am GMT
7.46am GMT
07:46
Eric Hilaire
Before we go any further, let’s look at how climate change is actually impacting parts of the world. Run the slider across to see how Arctic temperatures have changed over the past 40 years
This one shows the dramatic decline of Lake Chad in west Africa, which has been blamed for large scale migration.
And finally, the gradual melt of the ice sheet in Greenland.
7.39am GMT
07:39
Emily Wilson
Carbon expert Chris Goodall says individual actions DO make a difference. Here are three of his suggestions for individual action that will cumulatively make a real impact on humankind’s carbon emissions:
1 Air travel is usually the largest component of the carbon footprint of frequent flyers. A single return flight from London to New York – including the complicated effects on the high atmosphere – contributes to almost a quarter of the average person’s annual emissions. The easiest way to make a big difference is to go by train or not take as many flights.
2 The second most important lifestyle change is to eat less meat, with particular emphasis on meals containing beef and lamb. Cow and sheep emit large quantities of methane, a powerful global warming gas. A vegan diet might make as much as a 20% difference to your overall carbon impact but simply cutting out beef will deliver a significant benefit on its own.
3 Home heating is next. Poorly insulated housing requires large quantities of energy to heat. If you have properly insulated the loft and filled the cavity wall, the most important action you can take is to draft-proof the house, something you can do yourself. Those with solid brick or stone walls will also benefit from adding insulation, but the financial benefits are unlikely to cover the cost of doing the work, over time.
Updated
at 7.55am GMT
7.30am GMT
07:30
Mark Rice-Oxley
First things first – the facts. I know this is the post-fact era, and it’s become rather unfashionable to grub around looking for the truth. But here goes anyway:
1) Warming is happening fast. No doubt about it. For most of the 20th century, average global temperatures bimbled around the 13.5C mark. Now they are closer to 15C.
The UK’s Met Office has produced a nice visual of this which really brings home how static temperatures were for a long period, before the past 20 years or so:
2) Scientists agree we are doing this to ourselves. Often good journalism involves balancing arguments. If you quote a Democrat, you need a Republican for balance. If you quote someone in favour of chocolate biscuits, you want a counter view.
This has leached into climate journalism, but the vast majority of scientists support the hypothesis that manmade action is contributing to climate change.
As this chart makes clear, if we want to strike a fair balance of voices in reporting climate change, we need to speak to more than 30 people who believe in manmade climate change before we give a platform to a sceptic. So we will do that today. We will hear from 30 or so people in the former camp. And we will remind you of what the world’s most famous climate sceptic, Donald Trump, has said.
3) BUT … THERE IS HOPE. There are many great things going on. We’re going to hear lots about these too: what is happening right now, and what you can do to join the global movement.
Carbon emissions are flatlining (but need to start falling). Renewable capacity has increased exponentially around the world. In an article we have just published, climate expert Chris Goodall writes:
2016 was the year in which it finally became obvious that the world had the technology to solve the problem. Even as the political environment has darkened, the reasons have strengthened for believing that a complete transition to low-carbon energy is practical and affordable within one generation.
7.14am GMT
07:14
Damian Carrington
Humanity stands at a fork in the road, with one route descending towards disaster and the other climbing towards a brighter future. The route taken depends on whether the world can tame global warming, which threatens a violent end to the mild and stable climate the world has enjoyed since the start of civilisation.
Many fear the inauguration of Donald Trump as the US president on Friday threatens to push us down the dark path. That’s understandable: he has called global warming a hoax and appointed climate-change deniers and oil barons to key posts.
But the unpredictable Trump and his team have already stepped back from a threat to abandon the global climate deal agreed in Paris in 2015. Hope remains – just – that with the right advice and pressure, Trump may see the challenge of climate change as the great opportunity it also represents.
Beating climate change requires nothing less than rewiring the global economy to run on zero-carbon energy – work that must start now but will take decades. As the climate economist Lord Nicholas Stern tells the Guardian: “The urgency and scale is not sufficiently understood.”
But this titanic challenge also offers extraordinary opportunities: trillion dollar markets for green technology and the prospect of a clean, sustainable and fair world. The US is the most vibrant crucible for new technology the world has seen and embracing the transformation to a green economy would deliver jobs and prosperity to many Americans.
Will Trump the dealmaker grasp the opportunity before Trump the climate-change denier throws it on a fossil fuel bonfire? Grabbing the chance would be a great way to “make America great again”, as many US cities, states and US businesses already realise.
In contrast, not doing so will help make China great again, as its extraordinary transformation into a climate leader accelerates.
Indeed the rest of the world’s nations have shown they remain resolute in pushing on, with or without the US. Even Saudi Arabia, which for years frustrated global climate talks, is now backing the renewables revolution with billions.
The prize of beating climate change is a glittering one and still just within reach. Global carbon emissions have levelled off. But that only means we are no longer accelerating towards the climate cliff edge – just speeding along at a steady 100mph towards the “severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts” projected by the world’s scientists.
A foretaste of those severe weather impacts has already arrived in many places, via scorching heatwaves and floods made far more likely by the overheating planet. To avoid climate breakdown, emissions must fall to zero in a few decades at most and that means ramping up action right now. Given the scale of the challenge, people can feel powerless to make a difference. But ask the key players around the world what individuals can do and one answer recurs more than cutting down on flying, giving up meat and saving energy: demand action from your elected representatives today.
Updated
at 7.18am GMT
7.03am GMT
07:03
What we're doing today
Mark Rice-Oxley
Hello and welcome to this live climate change special, in which we will be reporting from all seven continents on the climate change already underway – and the promise of solutions – in one 24-hour period.
The plan is this: starting in London, we will generally follow the sun as daybreak falls around the world. We’ll be in Europe, Africa and the Middle East for the next few hours before crossing the Atlantic to look at the Americas during their morning.
And finally we’ll move down to Sydney to hear about Asia-Pacific as that part of the world wakes up on Friday morning. All building towards Donald Trump’s big moment in Washington later in the day.
We’re teaming up with social network Tumblr and Spanish-language US broadcaster Univision to cast the conversational net far and wide.
Of course, Trump is on record as questioning the science behind climate change, and the link between the warming planet and the transformation of our weather patterns.
But we’ll hear from people who, unlike Trump, live on the front line of climate change –in Bangladesh, Egypt, Canada, Bolivia, Malawi, the South Pacific – parts of the world where climate sceptics (or doubters, if you prefer that word) are few and far between.
Already today we have heard from more than a dozen top global warming experts who pinpoint why Trump’s revisionism is not just dangerous but a self-inflicted wound. And we have heard Xi Jinping, China’s president, wax lyrical about the urgency of the moment:
There is only one Earth in the universe and we mankind have only one homeland ...
It’s not all gloom though. There’s a tremendous amount of work – science, innovation, activism and diplomacy – that should give readers hope. We’ll be highlighting the saviour technology that can yet make a big difference and the little things you can do in your life to join the climate movement.
Other highlights will include a quiz, a doomsday carbon countdown clock, a Facebook live attempt to sketch climate change, and a film from the bottom of the earth.
Our icons will indicate what each post is about, whether it’s drought, heat, oceans, flooding, food or ice melt – or just advice or commentary.
So drop in from time to time, and see how we’re getting on. After all, in the time it’s taken you to read this, we’ve churned out another 100,000 tons of carbon. Next up will be Damian Carrington our head of environment, on why this is such a critical juncture for our species, and indeed every species on this planet.
We’ll be reading all comments below the line, please do join the conversation.
Updated
at 7.28am GMT