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Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live
(35 minutes later)
8.00pm GMT
20:00
HOUR 13: drought from sea to sea
As Jonathan Watts reported earlier, the end of the world is looking not just warm but dry, from the mountainous lakes of South America up to the disappearing snowpacks of California. Later on we’ll hear how this increasing aridity is going to affect your meal: – breakfast, lunch, dinner and dessert.
We’re also going to hear about Nasa’s future under Trump and the growing range of wildfires
Fifteen things you can do to make a difference
Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms
George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’
The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China
The ever-popular climate quiz
And the climate clock, still ticking away
Sea levels could rise by six to nine metres over time, new study warns https://t.co/MjFXqJ9J59
7.56pm GMT
19:56
Adam Gabbatt
Michael Ingui, an architect at Baxt Ingui Architects, specializes in creating passive houses – “super-insulated houses that use a fraction of the energy” of a traditional home.
Passive houses use much less energy than a traditional home due to a by using superior insulation, special triple-glazed windows and an energy recovery ventilator which filters in fresh air and releases stale air. The ventilator is used to heat the house, which means no radiators and no boiler.
It also means significantly less energy costs: Ingui estimates his passive houses save “80-90%” on energy bills.
“The way I would really describe it is: a passive house is just a better building,” Ingui said. “It can also heat and cool itself passively, without any mechanical elements.”
The walls of a passive house are much thickerthan a normal home due to the extra insulation, which Ingui described as forming an “envelope” in which any gaps that may exist in a traditional home are completely sealed.
Ingui has designed and fitted out seven in the past four years, and is working on three more. Some of those homes – including the one I looked around in Brooklyn on Thursday – have solar panels on the roof, which means they can effectively be carbon zero.
Updated
at 7.57pm GMT
7.47pm GMT
19:47
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Updated
at 7.56pm GMT
7.40pm GMT
19:40
What happens in Antarctica does not stay there: the icy waters off the southernmost continent are an engine for life around the world, and they are warming faster than anywhere else – a threat to the global food supply.
For decades, scientists have been diving underneath the quickly melting ice in a race to learn the consequences of warming on the ecosystem.
7.25pm GMT7.25pm GMT
19:2519:25
For six years of increasingly withering heat, Californians have rationed resources, fought with celebrities and watched as precious reservoirs and snowpacks, so important to the state’s economy and daily lives of its residents, disappeared to historic lows. When it rained, it was never enough – though hope has partially returned with massive storms of the last three weeks.For six years of increasingly withering heat, Californians have rationed resources, fought with celebrities and watched as precious reservoirs and snowpacks, so important to the state’s economy and daily lives of its residents, disappeared to historic lows. When it rained, it was never enough – though hope has partially returned with massive storms of the last three weeks.
According to the US Drought Monitor, about 42% of the state is out of drought, thanks to a series of heavy rains around the Bay area and blizzards over part of the Sierra Nevada, where snowpack provides critical water for the state in the spring and summer. The heavy rains also replenished the state’s largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, back to 82%, and even Los Angeles saw flash flood warnings as storms stretched across the state.According to the US Drought Monitor, about 42% of the state is out of drought, thanks to a series of heavy rains around the Bay area and blizzards over part of the Sierra Nevada, where snowpack provides critical water for the state in the spring and summer. The heavy rains also replenished the state’s largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, back to 82%, and even Los Angeles saw flash flood warnings as storms stretched across the state.
But southern California has not enjoyed as much of a deluge as the north. Santa Barbara’s Lake Cachuma holds only about 8% of its capacity. New Melones Lake, in central California, holds only about 60% of its historical average, and some residents in the region need bottled water to drink and cook.But southern California has not enjoyed as much of a deluge as the north. Santa Barbara’s Lake Cachuma holds only about 8% of its capacity. New Melones Lake, in central California, holds only about 60% of its historical average, and some residents in the region need bottled water to drink and cook.
Jay Lund, a professor of environmental engineering at the University of California Davis, warned that the drought will leave scars that may last decades. The state may have to keep paying for expensive water pumping for years, and in the Central Valley some aquifers “might never recover to pre-drought levels”, he wrote in a blog post.Jay Lund, a professor of environmental engineering at the University of California Davis, warned that the drought will leave scars that may last decades. The state may have to keep paying for expensive water pumping for years, and in the Central Valley some aquifers “might never recover to pre-drought levels”, he wrote in a blog post.
“Drought damage to California’s forests could require decades to recover, or, if higher temperatures persist, the ecology of many forests might shift to new normal condition,” he added. “Native fish also will likely need years to recover – with impediments from already depleted numbers and highly disrupted and altered ecosystems.”“Drought damage to California’s forests could require decades to recover, or, if higher temperatures persist, the ecology of many forests might shift to new normal condition,” he added. “Native fish also will likely need years to recover – with impediments from already depleted numbers and highly disrupted and altered ecosystems.”
Lund said that the state’s leaders need to accept that the drought is not permanent, but that California is “a dry place with permanent water shortages (except in unusual wet years)”.Lund said that the state’s leaders need to accept that the drought is not permanent, but that California is “a dry place with permanent water shortages (except in unusual wet years)”.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.34pm GMTat 7.34pm GMT
7.24pm GMT7.24pm GMT
19:2419:24
Over on Tumblr, we’ve been running a blog collecting young people’s experiences, hopes and fears on climate change. You can submit your own messages or artwork here. We’ll be highlighting some of the posts throughout the day.Over on Tumblr, we’ve been running a blog collecting young people’s experiences, hopes and fears on climate change. You can submit your own messages or artwork here. We’ll be highlighting some of the posts throughout the day.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.30pm GMTat 7.30pm GMT
7.14pm GMT7.14pm GMT
19:1419:14
Jonathan WattsJonathan Watts
The end of the world is dry. That is not a prophesy of doom, but an increasingly evident fact as I learned during a recent trip to Patagonia.The end of the world is dry. That is not a prophesy of doom, but an increasingly evident fact as I learned during a recent trip to Patagonia.
I visited in October, revelling in the immensity of the region (which is four times the area of the United Kingdom), zagging back and forth between its Chilean and Argentinian sides, delighting in spectacular mountain and grassland scenery, and taking a dark pleasure in the road signs telling me I was on the “Ruta del Fin del Mundo”, a geographic reference to this southernmost tip of the Americas rather than a reminder of imminent apocalypse.I visited in October, revelling in the immensity of the region (which is four times the area of the United Kingdom), zagging back and forth between its Chilean and Argentinian sides, delighting in spectacular mountain and grassland scenery, and taking a dark pleasure in the road signs telling me I was on the “Ruta del Fin del Mundo”, a geographic reference to this southernmost tip of the Americas rather than a reminder of imminent apocalypse.
I also spent a lot of time skimming stones across lakes - a childhood pastime given a fresh boost by the incredible scenery, the glasslike surface of tarns in the Torres del Paine, warm weather and the discovery of a slow-mo feature on my cellphone video camera.I also spent a lot of time skimming stones across lakes - a childhood pastime given a fresh boost by the incredible scenery, the glasslike surface of tarns in the Torres del Paine, warm weather and the discovery of a slow-mo feature on my cellphone video camera.
Much as I enjoyed this activity, it also reminded me of the damage being done by rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Lakes formed by glacier melt were full. Many others had dried up completely, destroying fish habitats and drinking sources for jaguars, guanacos and ema. This wasn’t restricted to Torres del Paine. Five hundred miles further further south, I saw pink flamingos flapping their way across a half empty body of water and, then, another 15 minutes along the road, a fox crossing through the dust of a white alkaline lake bed that had been completely exposed to the wind. Over the course of the weeklong trip, I lost count of the lakes that had evaporated.Much as I enjoyed this activity, it also reminded me of the damage being done by rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Lakes formed by glacier melt were full. Many others had dried up completely, destroying fish habitats and drinking sources for jaguars, guanacos and ema. This wasn’t restricted to Torres del Paine. Five hundred miles further further south, I saw pink flamingos flapping their way across a half empty body of water and, then, another 15 minutes along the road, a fox crossing through the dust of a white alkaline lake bed that had been completely exposed to the wind. Over the course of the weeklong trip, I lost count of the lakes that had evaporated.
After I returned home, I did a little research on whether this was merely seasonal or a sign of a longer-term climactic shift.After I returned home, I did a little research on whether this was merely seasonal or a sign of a longer-term climactic shift.
Climate scientists believe the world’s extremities, the poles and mountains ranges, are warming faster than elsewhere, which means Patagonia is particularly vulnerable because both its latitude and altitude are high.Climate scientists believe the world’s extremities, the poles and mountains ranges, are warming faster than elsewhere, which means Patagonia is particularly vulnerable because both its latitude and altitude are high.
Shin Sugiyama, a researcher at the Institute of Low Temperature Science at Hokkaido University, confirmed the region’s glaciers were declining faster than those in other mountain ranges. Andrés Rivera, a Senior Researcher of the Glaciology Laboratory at the Centre for Scientific Studies in Valdivia in Chile, noted how the recent dry period in the region has contributed to rising snow-lines and a loss of lake volumes.Shin Sugiyama, a researcher at the Institute of Low Temperature Science at Hokkaido University, confirmed the region’s glaciers were declining faster than those in other mountain ranges. Andrés Rivera, a Senior Researcher of the Glaciology Laboratory at the Centre for Scientific Studies in Valdivia in Chile, noted how the recent dry period in the region has contributed to rising snow-lines and a loss of lake volumes.
Eric Rignot, Professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, said the glacier melt and lack of precipitation were likely to have been affected by the ebbing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a belt of Antarctic low pressure that normally brings snow and ice to Patagonia. Research from other scientists say SAM is at its weakest ebb in 1,000 years, due in part to to increasing greenhouse gas levels. Eric Rignot, professor of Earth System Science at the University of California, said the glacier melt and lack of precipitation were likely to have been affected by the ebbing of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a belt of Antarctic low pressure that normally brings snow and ice to Patagonia. Research from other scientists say SAM is at its weakest ebb in 1,000 years, due in part to to increasing greenhouse gas levels.
The consequences are not sudden. Rather they are of steadily increasing severity. Chilean newspapers have reported the worst drought in Patagonia since records began, after seven consecutive years of unusually low snowfall, short winters and hot summers. In Argentina, this is blamed for the deaths of 1.8m sheep, or 12% of the national flock.The consequences are not sudden. Rather they are of steadily increasing severity. Chilean newspapers have reported the worst drought in Patagonia since records began, after seven consecutive years of unusually low snowfall, short winters and hot summers. In Argentina, this is blamed for the deaths of 1.8m sheep, or 12% of the national flock.
The earlier stage of this prolonged drought has also left a black mark on the landscape in the form of thousands of charred stumps from the huge forest fire that tore through Torres del Paine In 2011. That was started by careless tourists and spread out of control because trees and brush were unusually dry.The earlier stage of this prolonged drought has also left a black mark on the landscape in the form of thousands of charred stumps from the huge forest fire that tore through Torres del Paine In 2011. That was started by careless tourists and spread out of control because trees and brush were unusually dry.
Despite it all, Patagonia is still one of the most beautiful places on earth. I would certainly love to go back, explore remote glaciers, marvel at the other worldly skyscapes and, of course, skim more stones. How many lakes, though, will be left?Despite it all, Patagonia is still one of the most beautiful places on earth. I would certainly love to go back, explore remote glaciers, marvel at the other worldly skyscapes and, of course, skim more stones. How many lakes, though, will be left?
Updated
at 7.37pm GMT
7.00pm GMT7.00pm GMT
19:0019:00
HOUR 12: who needs Washington?HOUR 12: who needs Washington?
As Lauren Gambino reported earlier, mayors in US cities are making plans to fight climate change themselves if they have to. Later on we’ll also hear how the financial rewards – the money that can be made in renewables – also holds out hope for the future even if our political leaders fail us.As Lauren Gambino reported earlier, mayors in US cities are making plans to fight climate change themselves if they have to. Later on we’ll also hear how the financial rewards – the money that can be made in renewables – also holds out hope for the future even if our political leaders fail us.
We’re also going to hear about how drought is impacting California and Latin America.We’re also going to hear about how drought is impacting California and Latin America.
Fifteen things you can do to make a differenceFifteen things you can do to make a difference
Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farmsAdam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms
George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’
The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in ChinaThe world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China
The ever-popular climate quizThe ever-popular climate quiz
And the climate clock, still ticking awayAnd the climate clock, still ticking away
"Where the hell is global warming?" asked @realDonaldTrump in 2014. Well... #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5g9E3e pic.twitter.com/NeeZKnhodc"Where the hell is global warming?" asked @realDonaldTrump in 2014. Well... #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5g9E3e pic.twitter.com/NeeZKnhodc
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.15pm GMTat 7.15pm GMT
6.44pm GMT6.44pm GMT
18:4418:44
Adam GabbattAdam Gabbatt
New York City and the wider state are embracing renewable energy as the state’s leaders take steps to resist Donald Trump’s rollback of green initiatives.New York City and the wider state are embracing renewable energy as the state’s leaders take steps to resist Donald Trump’s rollback of green initiatives.
The Atelier Condo, a 47-story, 478-unit residential building in Hell’s Kitchen, for instance, installed about 3,000-square-feet of solar panelling in 2011. Daniel Neiditch, president of the Atelier and of real estate company River 2 River Realty, said that after rebates from the city and state, the investment cost $70,000. Nieditch said he earned that much back in savings after a year-and-a-half. He estimates currently provide almost 10% of the building’s energy.The Atelier Condo, a 47-story, 478-unit residential building in Hell’s Kitchen, for instance, installed about 3,000-square-feet of solar panelling in 2011. Daniel Neiditch, president of the Atelier and of real estate company River 2 River Realty, said that after rebates from the city and state, the investment cost $70,000. Nieditch said he earned that much back in savings after a year-and-a-half. He estimates currently provide almost 10% of the building’s energy.
“There’s no way you can do solar and not save money over time,” Neiditch said. “It’s a no brainer.”“There’s no way you can do solar and not save money over time,” Neiditch said. “It’s a no brainer.”
New York City mayor Bill de Blasio has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the city by 80% by 2050 and both local and state incentives can cut the cost of solar panel installation by 50%.New York City mayor Bill de Blasio has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the city by 80% by 2050 and both local and state incentives can cut the cost of solar panel installation by 50%.
Neiditch said some developers don’t realise how quickly they will make their money back, or what kind of rebates are available in their state.Neiditch said some developers don’t realise how quickly they will make their money back, or what kind of rebates are available in their state.
“There’s so much more that can be done,” Neiditch said. He said developers “need to be educated” on the benefits – possibly by the city or state.“There’s so much more that can be done,” Neiditch said. He said developers “need to be educated” on the benefits – possibly by the city or state.
The Atelier will be fitted with another 6,000 sq-ft of solar panels this summer, Neiditch said, which could mean solar accounts for 25% of the buildings electricity, saving $200,000 a year.The Atelier will be fitted with another 6,000 sq-ft of solar panels this summer, Neiditch said, which could mean solar accounts for 25% of the buildings electricity, saving $200,000 a year.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.26pm GMTat 7.26pm GMT
6.27pm GMT6.27pm GMT
18:2718:27
Lauren GambinoLauren Gambino
This morning the Guardian caught up with a couple of big city mayors to discuss their concerns about the incoming administration’s climate change agenda.This morning the Guardian caught up with a couple of big city mayors to discuss their concerns about the incoming administration’s climate change agenda.
The takeaway: who needs Washington?The takeaway: who needs Washington?
Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti and Boston mayor Marty Walsh said the real change is happening at the local level and federal action, er inaction, won’t change that.Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti and Boston mayor Marty Walsh said the real change is happening at the local level and federal action, er inaction, won’t change that.
“Don’t get in our way,” Garcetti said, describing his message to an administration that is hostile to efforts to curb climate change at the federal level.“Don’t get in our way,” Garcetti said, describing his message to an administration that is hostile to efforts to curb climate change at the federal level.
Trump has threatened to pull out of the international Paris agreement and said he would dismantle Obama’s Clean Power Plan, as well as other initiatives taken by the Environmental Protection Agency. Trump has nominated Kansas attorney general Scott Pruitt to head up the EPA, the agency he is currently suing.Trump has threatened to pull out of the international Paris agreement and said he would dismantle Obama’s Clean Power Plan, as well as other initiatives taken by the Environmental Protection Agency. Trump has nominated Kansas attorney general Scott Pruitt to head up the EPA, the agency he is currently suing.
“We’re prepared, if we withdraw from Paris, to enact Paris at the local level,” Garcetti told a handful of journalists at the Hilton Continental Hotel in Washington.“We’re prepared, if we withdraw from Paris, to enact Paris at the local level,” Garcetti told a handful of journalists at the Hilton Continental Hotel in Washington.
“Worst-case scenario, the federal government can probably take away 20% or 30% of our progress, and I’d rather have 100% than 70% or 80%, but I feel like that 70 to 80% of further progress is inevitable based on the leadership that we’ve already shown.”“Worst-case scenario, the federal government can probably take away 20% or 30% of our progress, and I’d rather have 100% than 70% or 80%, but I feel like that 70 to 80% of further progress is inevitable based on the leadership that we’ve already shown.”
6.24pm GMT
18:24
Oliver Milman
Much of the international fretting over the ascendancy of Donald Trump to the US presidency is focused on the real estate magnate’s pledge to “cancel” the Paris climate deal.
Tearing up a central plank of Barack Obama’s climate legacy by removing America from the agreement would cause shockwaves that could badly damage the global climate effort. But will that actually happen?
Currently, every functioning government in the world is signed up the Paris goal of limiting global warming to a 2C increase on pre-industrial times. Chinese president Xi Jingping, in a veiled jab at Trump this week, warned that “we must ensure this endeavor is not derailed.” Similar diplomatic pressure is likely to come from other nations once Trump is in the White House.
Quitting the Paris accord would take a three-year notice period. A quicker way would be to exit the UN climate body itself, which would take just a year. Such a move would likely cause other countries to question why they should make the effort to cut emissions if the US, historically the world’s largest emitter, can’t be bothered.
The latter option appears unlikely, for now at least. Shortly after his election win, Trump said that he in fact has an “open mind” to the Paris deal. And then Rex Tillerson, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, played down the prospect of complete US withdrawal last week:
I think it’s important that the United States maintain its seat at the table in the conversation on how to address threats of climate change. They do require a global response.
Perhaps the most likely outcome is ostensible US involvement in the UN climate process but with little effort to provide the climate funding or emissions reduction goals demanded by the Paris deal. Whether the Trump administration will be openly disruptive or sullen during talks remains to be seen.
“It isn’t clear whether his ‘seat at the table’ will be a good dinner guest or the drunk uncle,” said Jake Schmidt, director of the international program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
Updated
at 6.24pm GMT
6.03pm GMT
18:03
In partnership with the Guardian, Univision Noticias is highlighting the urgency of climate action around the world. Join Univision and Fusion environmental correspondent Nicolás Ibargüen as he discusses on Facebook Live.
Updated
at 6.24pm GMT
6.00pm GMT
18:00
HOUR 11: vulnerable communities hit worst
We’ve heard from Jonathan Watts how experts in Brazil are anxious at the indigenous territories and fears there around a government move to change how their land is demarcated. We’ll have more on this theme later.
15 things you can do to make a difference
Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms
George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’
The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China
The ever-popular climate quiz
And the climate clock, still ticking away
Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: how much does the US invest in green tech? https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/p6bkJm3xqb
5.56pm GMT
17:56
Alan Yuhas
Shortly we’ll have live video from our partners Univision in Miami. Before that, its worth reflecting that Trump has a home in Florida which he regularly spends time at.
Mar-a-Lago mansion began as a cereal heiress’ dream of a presidential retreat on a south Florida beach.
The children of its current occupant, President-elect Donald Trump, may live to see the ocean sweep over the tennis courts, up across the long, and up to the mansion’s front door. Whether the next president accepts science or not, climate change is on course to turn his beloved resort into something closer to Atlantis than the winter White House. By 2045, a relatively weak category-two hurricane would bring the ocean up to main building of the resort, a risk consulting firm found last year. Two other Trump properties, in Hollywood and Sunny Isles, could be cut off from roads and even made temporary islands by tidal floods.
Just over an hour the south, Miami is already at war with the ocean, as tides floods increasingly sweep floods into the streets and homes, swamping condo lobbies and cutting off islands and bridges. The rate of sea-level rise has tripled over the last 10 years, according to a University of Miami study. City leaders have budgeted $400m to install dozens of water pumps around the city and to raise the height of roads and seawalls, but the state remains divided: real estate developers continue to build expensive condos, and the governor insists on skepticism toward science. The tides, meanwhile, continue to seep up through Florida’s porous limestone ground, threatening to destroy homes and seeping sewage into drinking water. By some researchers’ predictions, parts of south Florida appear already lost, and swaths of the state will be underwater by 2025.
Miami, the great world city, is drowning while the powers that be look away
Updated
at 7.27pm GMT
5.45pm GMT
17:45
Oliver Milman
2016 was the warmest year, globally, on record and the second warmest year on record in the US, following the long-term warming trend. As Trump assumes the presidency, there are signs that these numbers are starting to translate into tangible consequences for Americans:
There are now Americans displaced due to climate change, from Louisiana to Alaska. Several Alaskan towns are set to be relocated – last year warmer than normal days outnumbered cooler than normal days in the state by a ratio of nine to one.
Of the 10 global cities deemed by the World Bank at most risk from sea level rise, five are in the US – New York, Boston, New Orleans, Tampa and Miami.
The north-east of the US is warming faster than the global average and the sea level is rising more quickly too.
New research, published in Nature, shows that crop harvests in the US are likely to shrink by as much as a half due to rising temperatures. States such as California, already stricken by drought, are likely to face huge “megadroughts” in the future.
Last year there were 15 climate-related disasters in the US that cost more than $1bn in damages. A total of 138 lives were lost. The severity of hurricanes and floods is likely to increase in parts of the US.
There has been a four-fold increase in the number of large, lengthy forest fires in the American west over the past 30 years.
While Trump may be unconcerned over the impact of climate change, the period of his presidency is likely to involve further signs that Americans are at risk. In response, Trump has so far promised to gut climate and clean energy spending, withdraw the US from the Paris climate deal and attempt to kickstart the ailing coal industry.
Public realization of scientists’ warnings has been illustrated by the latest polling by Yale University. In November, Yale found that one in five Americans are “very worried” about climate change – the highest proportion yet recorded.
Updated
at 7.27pm GMT
5.33pm GMT
17:33
Jonathan Watts
4) Where are the public on this issue? Is there is an ideological dividing line as in the US, or is there a broad consensus about the science?
In 2015, 28% of Brazilian municipalities entered into emergency or calamity due to extreme weather – droughts, floods, storms, landslides. This affected millions of people so that are aware things are changing.
We don’t face the same debate as the US about whether climate change is related to human activities. Last year, the Paris climate treaty was ratified easily despite our political crisis. Even the most conservative members on the political spectrum, the debate is more about what we do about climate change. Some say Brazil has already made the biggest contribution through deforestation reduction and renewables, which account for a little more than 70% of electricity generation and 40% of the total energy mix. The question is whether to do more. But unfortunately, climate change is not a priority for this government, as it wasn’t for the previous one. It is seen as an environmental issue, not a development issue.
5) What does this mean in concrete terms?
The past two years have seen a 60% rise in deforestation. Considering what is going on now in congress, we could see a new era of deforestation in Brazil. It is very alarming. We could be returning to the bad days of more than 10,000 square km of clearance each year.
6) How might climate policy be affected by the 2018 presidential election?
I don’t think Brazil can elect someone like Trump who denies climate change, but we could have someone with very conservative ideas who sees the environment as an obstacle for development. They might argue that if US is doing nothing on climate, why should we? But one of the candidates will be former environment minister Marina Silva, who will ensure that sustainable development and climate policy are part of the debate. It’s too early though to say who might win. We don’t know who will run and what will be the impact of the ongoing corruption investigation (intro bribery at the state oil firm Petrobras). But the result will be important. The next president is the one who will have to deliver results because after 2020 Brazil’s commitments become obligations.
7) Given the current trends, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
I’m not too gloomy, but Brazil is a country of lost opportunities. Every year, there are more groups who see forests and the environment as obstacles to development. But there are good signs too. There is room in the private sector for discussing climate change as an opportunity for Brazil to benefit from our natural capital. We need a more efficient agriculture and more renewable energy – biofuels, bio energy, wind, solar and hydro. Why not make the most of these competitive advantages? The economic benefits of climate action are huge. We are trying to make this a priority for the next president. But it won’t be easy.
Updated
at 5.45pm GMT
5.19pm GMT
17:19
Jonathan Watts
If the world is to get emissions under control, Brazil will be a key player. Over the past decade, it has played a mostly positive role, both in taking domestic action to reduce the rate of deforestation of the Amazon, and also in constructive diplomacy in international climate talks. But economic recession and political turmoil have led many to fear this might change in the future. For an insight into what might come next, I approached Carlos Rittl, associate researcher of the Brazilian Climate Observator, an umbrella organisation that represents more than 40 environment NGOs. Here’s our Q&A:
1) Yesterday, the Brazilian justice ministry changed the rules for demarcating indigenous land. What is your take on this?
This is really, really bad. It is the most negative change made in environmental and climate policy since the government of (Michel) Temer took power last year. Indigenous territories are critical for Brazil’s climate resilience. This new move threatens even already demarcated lands, yet the justice ministry moved ahead without any public debate, any discussion with the people affected. It shows what a myopic view the new government has when it comes to land use.
2) How else has climate policy changed since the switch of government from the centre-left administration of Dilma Rousseff to the centre-right administration of Michel Temer?
In terms of Brazil’s goals, there has been no change. But there has been a shift in attitude that could affect whether those targets are achieved. There are many proposals that are bad for the climate. The administration wants to soften environmental legislation and reduce protected areas. Before Temer came to power, he outlined his approach in a document called Bridge to the Future. It contained no reference to climate or renewables. The only reference to the environment was a promise to weaken the environmental licensing process.
3) One of the reasons for the political shift has been the rise of the agribusiness and evangelical lobbies in congress. What are their goals when it comes to climate policy?
There is a danger that Brazil’s climate policy could shift backwards. Agribusiness presents itself as the solution to current economic crisis. They say they need more investment and more support and changes to land policy. The decision made by the ministry of justice yesterday is connected to that. They also want to prevent agribusinesses from having to do annual environmental licensing renewals. They want approval for mining in indigenous territories and protected areas. They are also pushing for more infrastructure to make their business easier. For example on the Tapajos river, they don’t just want more dams, but also waterways so soy can be shipped from central Brazil to Europe. All this will make it more difficult for Brazil to deliver on its 2020 climate goals. They are also trying to remove the environment minister from his post because he is trying to do his job.
Updated
at 7.28pm GMT
5.17pm GMT
17:17
Mark Oliver
Over the next few hours we’ll also be hearing from our Latin American correspondent, Jonathan Watts. First up he’s been speaking to a key expert in Brazil, a key country.
Later we’ll hear about his trip to Patagonia, and how climate change is affecting something a lot of people hold dear: coffee.
5.07pm GMT
17:07
Alan Yuhas
Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, is the outgoing chief executive of ExxonMobil, the oil giant under investigation for possibly defrauding investors about what it knew and did about climate change.
Shortly after Barack Obama’s election in 2009, Tillerson announced his support for a carbon tax – if only because he considers it preferable to cap and trade policies – but environmental groups have denounced Tillerson’s nomination. Tillerson does not deny that climate change is real, but in a hearing with Congress last week refused to answer a question about whether ExxonMobil had tried to sow doubt about the science.
Tillerson told Senator Tim Kaine, “I’m in no position to speak” for his company’s executives, until the frustrated congressman asked, “Do you lack the knowledge to answer my question, or are you refusing to do so?”
“A little of both,” Tillerson answered.
Tillerson also rejected the Pentagon’s warning that climate change is a national security risk and would only say the US will “keep a seat at the table” in the international effort to curb global warming. Trump has previously promised to quit the Paris climate deal.
Updated
at 5.14pm GMT
5.00pm GMT
17:00
HOUR TEN: Obama’s legacy on climate not perfect either
Mark Oliver
As we’ve pointed out in the previous post, Obama’s legacy is far from perfect.
But it’s fair to say there are greater fears around the Trump administration’s key cabinet posts relating to climate change. Alan Yuhas is about to post on the pick for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. Also ahead we’ll have more video from New York’s rooftops.
Highlights:
15 things you can do to make a difference
Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms
George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’
The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China
The ever-popular climate quiz
And the climate clock, still ticking away
Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: he claimed the planet is freezing, but 2016 was the hottest yet #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/OTdZHWkrez
Updated
at 5.11pm GMT