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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2017/jan/19/global-warning-live-from-the-climate-change-frontline-as-trump-becomes-president

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Version 29 Version 30
Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live
(35 minutes later)
12.47am GMT
00:47
Elle Hunt
Below the line, Erik Frederiksen has responded to a quote from Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst from the Otago Regional Council, in Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from Dunedin, New Zealand.
From the article:
Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst for the Otago Regional Council.
“With the issue of sea-level rise we are looking at big storms increasing in frequency and severity...so people that would ordinarily have a fairly low risk of being flooded by the sea may now expect that adverse event to happen every ten years rather than every 100 years.”
Notice how far CO2 has blown off the graph, and hence how far temperature and sea level have to rise to equilibrate with just our current forcing.
We could blow much further off that chart.
(The graph of 400,000 years of data Erik meant to link to is here.)
Eleanor noted that 2016 was the hottest year on record for New Zealand, with droughts in the North Island and 11m of rain on the west coast of the South Island.
Eleanor is based in Dunedin and says the southern university town is being seen as a litmus test for how the rest of the country may fare in the coming years, with numerous flat, low-lying beach side communities built on marshy land mere metres above the sea.
“It all comes down to the fact that New Zealanders love to live by the ocean,” Dr Hornblow told Eleanor. “But if we were planning those homes with the wisdom we have today, we would not have people living there at all, or be building on those flat areas so close to the sea.”
12.38am GMT
00:38
I don’t normally write about personal things, but recently I’ve been thinking about people’s emotional responses to the devastation that climate change has been causing – and will cause in the future.
For years I’ve understood the crisis we’re facing, but I’ve managed to maintain a kind of professional distance from it – not feeling enormously strong emotions about it.
But recently that’s change. Here are my thoughts about why.
12.31am GMT
00:31
A question from Twitter this time, about a reported increase of ice and snow in Antarctica.
@MikeySlezak Hello. A question for Jason Roberts in Antarctica: Is there actually an increase of ice/snow there or was that just a 'blip'?
Jason Roberts responds:
Like anything involving such a big area as Antarctica, things vary a lot across the continent. From an Australian context, just think about floods and bushfires happening at the same time.
In general Antarctica as a whole is losing some ice, with this mainly happening in West Antarctica (the bit on the South American side of the Trans Antarctic Mountains). On the larger East Antarctic side, things are a bit more in balance, with some areas losing ice, and some currently gaining ice through extra snowfall.
Of course getting detailed measurements is difficult in Antarctica (there are only a few weather stations) so we rely a lot on satellites to make these measurements, so there is some uncertainty about just how large some of the changes are.
To make things harder, things are changing with time as well – again, just think in an Australian context, some years are wetter than others.
12.26am GMT
00:26
In Sydney Australia, there is going to be a march on the first full day after Trump is inaugurated. Greenpeace and other NGOs will be there marching to demonstrate on both climate change, and women’s rights.
Updated
at 12.29am GMT
12.25am GMT
00:25
Another missive from the Casey Station on Antarctica.
I have another set for Jason!
Also in the news, there appears to be more sea ice around Antarctica. Can you please explain how a warming climate can cause "more" sea ice to be present? What does this mean to the ice on the continent?
Jason Roberts:
That’s an interesting question about the sea ice, and one that keeps coming up.
While the air temperature and temperature at the surface of the ocean is important in forming sea ice, probably the biggest factor controlling how much sea ice is around Antarctica is the ocean currents (and the wind patterns over the water). These move the sea ice around, and can cause it to build up in certain areas as it all gets pushed together. Once this happens, it can influence the ocean, for example waves get damped out by the sea ice, which stop them breaking up the sea ice. So it is more to do with the changes in ocean and wind patterns than temperature.
There isn’t much direct coupling between the changes in the sea ice and ice on the continent. Most Antarctic sea is only one year old (although there are areas of so-called “multi-year sea ice”), while the ice on the continent is much older, tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The things that affect the ice on the continent are the amount of snow that falls to replenish it, the air temperature over summer for melting it, and how stable the ice shelves are that help hold back the glaciers.
Keep your questions coming below the line.
12.21am GMT
00:21
WWF Australia has jumped on the penguin awareness day bandwagon too, and included a some punny jokes in their Facebook post.
12.18am GMT
00:18
Elle Hunt
Jason Roberts of the Australian Antarctic Division has replied to CgGc13’s question below the line on the impact of the breaking up of the Lambert ice sheet.
Questions for Jason Roberts when he comes on. In recent news, the Lambert ice sheet (shelf) is setting up to break apart again. When this goes, what will the result be for West Antarctica? Do you see this having any impact on the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet?
Jason says:
The ice shelf that has a major rift in it is the Larsen ice shelf. Parts of this ice shelf collapsed around 10 years ago, that time is just disintegrated, while this time in looks like calving a big iceberg. The previous collapse reduced the forces holding back the glaciers that feed this ice shelf, and the speed up (more than doubling their speed) in the following years, although I think the most recent studies are showing that they are starting to slow back down. We can probably expect similar behaviour when this shelf calves this time.
On a global scale, the glaciers feeding the Larsen are fairly small and don’t contain a huge amount of ice. But their significance is more that they are the canary in the coal mine, showing us how vulnerable these ice shelves are to changes in the surrounding ocean.
12.03am GMT12.03am GMT
00:0300:03
HOUR 17: Answers from AntarcticaHOUR 17: Answers from Antarctica
Elle HuntElle Hunt
Another hour has passed – here’s what we’ve covered:Another hour has passed – here’s what we’ve covered:
20 January being Penguin Awareness Day, we’ve duly raised your awareness of penguins (let us know below the line if you’d like to be made more... aware)20 January being Penguin Awareness Day, we’ve duly raised your awareness of penguins (let us know below the line if you’d like to be made more... aware)
We heard how residents of the Solomon islands are working to strengthen forests, mangroves, reefs and other natural ecosystems that provide natural barriers to climate changeWe heard how residents of the Solomon islands are working to strengthen forests, mangroves, reefs and other natural ecosystems that provide natural barriers to climate change
How a seawall constructed in 1880 in Dunedin, in New Zealand’s South Island, has proved an inadequate barrier given contemporary challengesHow a seawall constructed in 1880 in Dunedin, in New Zealand’s South Island, has proved an inadequate barrier given contemporary challenges
The Australian Antarctic Division’s Jason Roberts on his daily flights out over Antarctica – and what he seesThe Australian Antarctic Division’s Jason Roberts on his daily flights out over Antarctica – and what he sees
And a selection of your thoughtful, interesting comments – please keep them coming!And a selection of your thoughtful, interesting comments – please keep them coming!
As Mikey mentioned, we’re about to hear from Jason for a real-time interview conducted – hopefully not-at-all haphazardly – between the Casey Station on Antarctica and the Guardian offices in Sydney.As Mikey mentioned, we’re about to hear from Jason for a real-time interview conducted – hopefully not-at-all haphazardly – between the Casey Station on Antarctica and the Guardian offices in Sydney.
We’ve passed a selection of questions you’ve already left for him in the comments, but do send on some more.We’ve passed a selection of questions you’ve already left for him in the comments, but do send on some more.
11.50pm GMT11.50pm GMT
23:5023:50
As mentioned below, we have Jason Roberts on standby at Casey Station in Antarctica ready to answer your questions about his work (see previous post), about Antarctica, or anything else!As mentioned below, we have Jason Roberts on standby at Casey Station in Antarctica ready to answer your questions about his work (see previous post), about Antarctica, or anything else!
Fire your questions at us in the comments below or tweet them to me at @mikeyslezak. We’ll get them to Roberts and post the answers shortly.Fire your questions at us in the comments below or tweet them to me at @mikeyslezak. We’ll get them to Roberts and post the answers shortly.
11.47pm GMT11.47pm GMT
23:4723:47
Jason Roberts is currently living and working at the Australian Antarctic Division’s Casey Station on Antarctica.Jason Roberts is currently living and working at the Australian Antarctic Division’s Casey Station on Antarctica.
Speaking exclusively with the Guardian this week, Roberts explained why he takes a plane out over Antarctica each day, measuring what’s underneath the ice.Speaking exclusively with the Guardian this week, Roberts explained why he takes a plane out over Antarctica each day, measuring what’s underneath the ice.
The work is trying to understand what controls changes in the ice, as the climate warms.The work is trying to understand what controls changes in the ice, as the climate warms.
“The last time we were in what’s called an interglacial - when we didn’t have the big ice sheets in the northern hemisphere – that was about 120,000 years ago when the climate was about what it’s like now,” Roberts says.“The last time we were in what’s called an interglacial - when we didn’t have the big ice sheets in the northern hemisphere – that was about 120,000 years ago when the climate was about what it’s like now,” Roberts says.
“And all the evidence from around the world suggests that sea level was several meters higher than where it currently is.”“And all the evidence from around the world suggests that sea level was several meters higher than where it currently is.”
But where exactly all that sea level rise came from is a mystery Roberts is trying to solve. Check out the interview we prepared earlier.But where exactly all that sea level rise came from is a mystery Roberts is trying to solve. Check out the interview we prepared earlier.
NOTE: We have Roberts on standby, ready to answer your questions. Leave them in the comments below, or tweet them to @mikeyslezak and we’ll come back here with his responses.NOTE: We have Roberts on standby, ready to answer your questions. Leave them in the comments below, or tweet them to @mikeyslezak and we’ll come back here with his responses.
11.44pm GMT11.44pm GMT
23:4423:44
Elle HuntElle Hunt
This comment, from NoMoreMrNice, praises the live blog form as a means of capturing the complexity of climate change. (In the interests of balance, I’ll try single out some critical comments soon, don’t worry!)This comment, from NoMoreMrNice, praises the live blog form as a means of capturing the complexity of climate change. (In the interests of balance, I’ll try single out some critical comments soon, don’t worry!)
Thank you for this; I've had a full on day at work, so am only catching up on it now, but it's very worthwhile and has been well done.Thank you for this; I've had a full on day at work, so am only catching up on it now, but it's very worthwhile and has been well done.
One benefit of this approach is that it reflects the complexity of climate change. Stories on one aspect are often bedeviled by comments of the 'what about....' nature. It's very hard to keep seeing the issue in the round, as a political, personal, societal, scientific and economic risk and opportunity. But it's so important to see how the parts do fit into the whole. Thank you.One benefit of this approach is that it reflects the complexity of climate change. Stories on one aspect are often bedeviled by comments of the 'what about....' nature. It's very hard to keep seeing the issue in the round, as a political, personal, societal, scientific and economic risk and opportunity. But it's so important to see how the parts do fit into the whole. Thank you.
As NoMoreMrNice notes, one of the challenges of reporting on climate change is making it seem like an immediate issue that’s unfolding now, rather than something intangible, far away in the future. These real-time, around-the-world updates are giving – if you’ll excuse the buzzword – a holistic view of the problem.As NoMoreMrNice notes, one of the challenges of reporting on climate change is making it seem like an immediate issue that’s unfolding now, rather than something intangible, far away in the future. These real-time, around-the-world updates are giving – if you’ll excuse the buzzword – a holistic view of the problem.
A few commenters have suggested that we should run the blog for another 24 hours, or at least do so more regularly – though it’s dependant on resourcing of our offices in London, New York and Sydney, the warm response below the line is certainly an incentive to do so!A few commenters have suggested that we should run the blog for another 24 hours, or at least do so more regularly – though it’s dependant on resourcing of our offices in London, New York and Sydney, the warm response below the line is certainly an incentive to do so!
11.38pm GMT11.38pm GMT
23:3823:38
Eleanor Ainge RoyEleanor Ainge Roy
St Clair beach in Dunedin is threatened by sea level rise.St Clair beach in Dunedin is threatened by sea level rise.
The first seawall was constructed in 1880 to protect the homes and businesses of low-lying South Dunedin, land which experts say should never have been built upon.The first seawall was constructed in 1880 to protect the homes and businesses of low-lying South Dunedin, land which experts say should never have been built upon.
The original seawall is evident in this picture, and was made of loose rocks and debris. The current wall is made of concrete and is six metres high. It is a great place to eat fish and chips while watching the pacific ocean hurl itself against the man-made barrier.The original seawall is evident in this picture, and was made of loose rocks and debris. The current wall is made of concrete and is six metres high. It is a great place to eat fish and chips while watching the pacific ocean hurl itself against the man-made barrier.
“We have a duty and responsibility to inform people about what risks they face living in a coastal environment,” says Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst for the Otago Regional Council.“We have a duty and responsibility to inform people about what risks they face living in a coastal environment,” says Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst for the Otago Regional Council.
“With the issue of sea-level rise we are looking at big storms increasing in frequency and severity...so people that would ordinarily have a fairly low risk of being flooded by the sea may now expect that adverse event to happen every ten years rather than every 100 years.”“With the issue of sea-level rise we are looking at big storms increasing in frequency and severity...so people that would ordinarily have a fairly low risk of being flooded by the sea may now expect that adverse event to happen every ten years rather than every 100 years.”
11.31pm GMT11.31pm GMT
23:3123:31
Elle HuntElle Hunt
Thanks for all your comments below the line – it’s great to see so lively a discussion. This, from Uli Nagelb, was interesting in light of earlier debate over reference to “climate deniers” in the US:Thanks for all your comments below the line – it’s great to see so lively a discussion. This, from Uli Nagelb, was interesting in light of earlier debate over reference to “climate deniers” in the US:
Very good initiative! I think the conversation here in the US is shifting - it seems that even previous climate deniers (Pruitt, Zinke, Perry) are now saying that climate change is real, however, they are not willing to say that it is entirely human induced and can be controlled by changing our behavior fast. We need to address that point more than just the fact that the climate is changing. And the idea of showing positive actions around the world is very good! Maybe another 24 hours! Thanks for all you do!Very good initiative! I think the conversation here in the US is shifting - it seems that even previous climate deniers (Pruitt, Zinke, Perry) are now saying that climate change is real, however, they are not willing to say that it is entirely human induced and can be controlled by changing our behavior fast. We need to address that point more than just the fact that the climate is changing. And the idea of showing positive actions around the world is very good! Maybe another 24 hours! Thanks for all you do!
Earlier in the blog, we referred to “climate sceptics (or doubters, if you prefer that word)”; challenged in the comments, my colleague Emily Wilson had this to say:Earlier in the blog, we referred to “climate sceptics (or doubters, if you prefer that word)”; challenged in the comments, my colleague Emily Wilson had this to say:
I'm told even the word 'sceptic' is extremely toxic in the USI'm told even the word 'sceptic' is extremely toxic in the US
It goes to show how loaded this debate continues to be in the face of apparently indisputable facts. The question of how to bridge the gaps between the two groups remains, as pointed out in this highlighted comment:It goes to show how loaded this debate continues to be in the face of apparently indisputable facts. The question of how to bridge the gaps between the two groups remains, as pointed out in this highlighted comment:
Great effort by the Guardian, but there's obviously a problem of preaching to the converted. What are the best ways to persuade the skeptics?Great effort by the Guardian, but there's obviously a problem of preaching to the converted. What are the best ways to persuade the skeptics?
That’s something that we aim to keep at the forefront of our minds in our coverage of climate change, far beyond singular initiatives such as these. (While it’s great to see the suggestions we keep the blog going for longer, I don’t think Mikey Slezak would be very happy with me for committing to another 24-hour stint – as passionate as he is about rising seawaters.)That’s something that we aim to keep at the forefront of our minds in our coverage of climate change, far beyond singular initiatives such as these. (While it’s great to see the suggestions we keep the blog going for longer, I don’t think Mikey Slezak would be very happy with me for committing to another 24-hour stint – as passionate as he is about rising seawaters.)
11.17pm GMT11.17pm GMT
23:1723:17
Eleanor Ainge RoyEleanor Ainge Roy
Last year five islands in the Solomon islands were consumed by rising oceans. The impoverished Oceanic nation, home to 640,000 people, has seen annual sea levels rise by as much as 10mm in the last 20 years; Choiseul Province, home to 20,000 people, was forced to relocate its provincial hub.Last year five islands in the Solomon islands were consumed by rising oceans. The impoverished Oceanic nation, home to 640,000 people, has seen annual sea levels rise by as much as 10mm in the last 20 years; Choiseul Province, home to 20,000 people, was forced to relocate its provincial hub.
Fred Patison, the country manager for the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, says residents of Choiseul were attempting to strengthen their ecosystems to reinforce their natural safeguards against climate change.Fred Patison, the country manager for the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, says residents of Choiseul were attempting to strengthen their ecosystems to reinforce their natural safeguards against climate change.
Speaking via Facebook messenger from his office in the capital Honiara, Patison says the Solomons have limited resources, so helping the local people preserve and care for their native forests, reefs and mangroves is the most straightforward action.Speaking via Facebook messenger from his office in the capital Honiara, Patison says the Solomons have limited resources, so helping the local people preserve and care for their native forests, reefs and mangroves is the most straightforward action.
“Ecosystem-based adaptation” is, for now, affordable and easily communicated – “although at some point relocation may become an option.”“Ecosystem-based adaptation” is, for now, affordable and easily communicated – “although at some point relocation may become an option.”
He adds that the Solomons were getting uncomfortably hot – a trend noted in other Pacific islands.He adds that the Solomons were getting uncomfortably hot – a trend noted in other Pacific islands.
11.07pm GMT11.07pm GMT
23:0723:07
According to Sydney Aquarium, today is penguin awareness day.According to Sydney Aquarium, today is penguin awareness day.
As they point out, penguins are threatened by climate change as ice melts and sea level rises.As they point out, penguins are threatened by climate change as ice melts and sea level rises.
#PenguinAwarenessDay, did you know that the curious birds are under threat from #GlobalWarning but also plastic pollution from humans?#PenguinAwarenessDay, did you know that the curious birds are under threat from #GlobalWarning but also plastic pollution from humans?
And for your enjoyment, the Australian Antarctic Division have posted this adorable video of penguins being, well, penguins. (And soon we’ll be heading to Antarctica, hearing from a scientist working there right now.)And for your enjoyment, the Australian Antarctic Division have posted this adorable video of penguins being, well, penguins. (And soon we’ll be heading to Antarctica, hearing from a scientist working there right now.)
Happy #penguinawarenessday! Adélie penguins are determined walkers averaging 2.5 km/h. Join our Q&A 1-2pm AEDT at https://t.co/WUlx7WwSnm pic.twitter.com/BDPpGKKrJlHappy #penguinawarenessday! Adélie penguins are determined walkers averaging 2.5 km/h. Join our Q&A 1-2pm AEDT at https://t.co/WUlx7WwSnm pic.twitter.com/BDPpGKKrJl
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.12pm GMTat 11.12pm GMT
11.06pm GMT11.06pm GMT
23:0623:06
HOUR 16: Into the Asia PacificHOUR 16: Into the Asia Pacific
Elle HuntElle Hunt
Good morning from Sydney, Australia – my name is Elle Hunt and I’m helping Mikey Slezak co-pilot the blog in its final eight-hour stretch.Good morning from Sydney, Australia – my name is Elle Hunt and I’m helping Mikey Slezak co-pilot the blog in its final eight-hour stretch.
In the past hour, we’ve learned about:In the past hour, we’ve learned about:
the impact of rising sea levels in the low-lying Pacific island of Kiribatithe impact of rising sea levels in the low-lying Pacific island of Kiribati
how much greenhouse gas the world is emitting right now (warning: this carbon countdown clock, updating in real time, may spike your anxiety)how much greenhouse gas the world is emitting right now (warning: this carbon countdown clock, updating in real time, may spike your anxiety)
the latest on the toxic debate about renewable energy in Australia. The good news: voters aren’t convinced that it’s forcing prices upthe latest on the toxic debate about renewable energy in Australia. The good news: voters aren’t convinced that it’s forcing prices up
Coming up, we’ll head to Antarctica with Jason Roberts of the Australian Antarctic Division, who will be joining us for a real-time Q&A from 11am AEDT.Coming up, we’ll head to Antarctica with Jason Roberts of the Australian Antarctic Division, who will be joining us for a real-time Q&A from 11am AEDT.
Watch his upcoming video interview and let us know what questions you have for him in the comments or on Twitter: I’m @mlle_elle, Mikey’s @MikeySlezak, and the hashtag we’re using is #GlobalWarning.Watch his upcoming video interview and let us know what questions you have for him in the comments or on Twitter: I’m @mlle_elle, Mikey’s @MikeySlezak, and the hashtag we’re using is #GlobalWarning.
Thanks for joining us.Thanks for joining us.
10.44pm GMT10.44pm GMT
22:4422:44
Here in Australia, there’s been a toxic debate about renewable energy. The fossil fuel industry, conservative media and the coalition government have been trying to link blackouts in South Australia, which have been caused by extreme weather, to the high proportion of renewables in that state.Here in Australia, there’s been a toxic debate about renewable energy. The fossil fuel industry, conservative media and the coalition government have been trying to link blackouts in South Australia, which have been caused by extreme weather, to the high proportion of renewables in that state.
They’ve also been arguing that rising power bills around the country are a result of increases in renewable energy in the grid.They’ve also been arguing that rising power bills around the country are a result of increases in renewable energy in the grid.
But today, just as another extreme storm causes a large blackout in South Australia, we have polling from GetUp showing Australians have not been swayed by these arguments.But today, just as another extreme storm causes a large blackout in South Australia, we have polling from GetUp showing Australians have not been swayed by these arguments.
Just over 17% of voters said they thought renewable energy was to blame for rising power prices.Just over 17% of voters said they thought renewable energy was to blame for rising power prices.
Read the full story here:Read the full story here: