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Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live Global warning: Australia and Asia predict climate cost of Trump's agenda – live
(35 minutes later)
1.55am GMT
01:55
Joshua Robertson
The business case for adapting to climate change has dawned on a growing number of organisations in Australia, including the stewards of the iconic Sydney Opera House.
The opera house is among the 10 best business cases in Australia to show how it could be done, according to a Griffith University report launched last month.
The climate change risks to the World Heritage-listed building range from underground water leaks from rising sea levels and water pressure, damage from more severe storms with high winds, and flooding from more intense rainfall and run-off.
The opera house has now factored in a 90cm sea level rise into its 10-yearly building renewal program. Managers told the Griffith researchers that assuming the need for climate change adaptation in its investments was a responsible “use of taxpayers’ money”.
Other cases include the insurer Suncorp, which sees a growing cost of natural disasters in northern Australia in the form of cyclones, floods and hail storms as “the game changer and catalyst for change and action”.
Over the last 7 years in Queensland alone, insurers paid out $1.44 in claims for every $1 they collected in premiums, the study said.
After Queensland’s costly 2011 floods, Suncorp assessed the cost of a levee to protect the flood-prone town of Roma at $11m – the same as it cost the government to provide emergency helicopter rescues for one flood.
“This presented a very strong business case for the [Queensland] government to fund the levee, which they did,” the study said.
Suncorp told the researchers that while the insurance industry has a “pretty good understanding of what the cost will look like”, this did not necessarily extend to the human costs, which are only apparent when disaster hits and insurers “turn up on the ground and start helping people rebuild their homes”.
“At that point, it becomes evident that there is a range of risks and damages that are not ‘carried on anyone’s balance sheet’, for instance, mental health issues,” the study said.
1.49am GMT
01:49
Elle Hunt
AlexMourinho raises an interesting point: could the way forward from our changing climate be posed by philosophy?
Philosophy in school.
Mandatory.
Thinking citizens is the only way out of this mess called civilisation.
On the subject of science intersecting with philosophy, on Wednesday I went scuba-diving off the north shore of Sydney with Peter Godfrey-Smith, an academic philosopher who’s written a book about the consciousness of cephalopods.
Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and the Deep Origins of Consciousness is currently available in the US and due for release in the UK and Australia in February; Godfrey-Smith’s New York Times column about octopuses and ageing is a taster.
1.45am GMT
01:45
Michael Safi
Hello from Delhi, India’s heaving capital, where, inside government ministries, plans are being devised for the largest electricity rollout in history. India will need to supply power to nearly 600m new consumers by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. How they choose to do so matters to the entire planet.
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, takes climate change seriously. Extreme weather across the country, including droughts, storms, and the severest heat wave on record killed nearly 1,600 Indians, it was reported this week. Food yields are already estimated to have fallen by 6% because of higher temperatures – a phenomenon that might claim 160,000 Indian lives each year by 2050.
But Modi is also emphatic that climate change “is not of [India’s] making”. Historically, the country accounts for just 3% of the world’s total carbon emissions since 1890. India is unapologetic about potentially tripling its coal use by 2030 if it means connecting every village to the grid and powering new schools, jobs and homes for hundreds of millions of its citizens.
Averting a catastrophic increase in carbon emissions will come down to how much of that energy can be generated cleanly. India’s renewable energy target is hugely ambitious: an installed capacity of 175GW by 2022. To put that into perspective, the current capacity of India’s entire grid is around 310GW.
So far, India doesn’t appear to be on track to hit the 175GW target – but that’s missing the point. In pursuit of such a bold aim, it has already added nearly 15GW in renewable capacity, and attracted billions of dollars in investment. The southern state of Tamil Nadu is now the site of the world’s largest solar power plant. India’s total renewable capacity could increase by more than 50% in the next year alone. It has already predicted it will exceed its Paris targets by nearly 60% – and do so three years early.
So, while the next posts will explore the threats posed by climate change to India, it’s worth remembering: there’s some cause for optimism, too.
1.42am GMT
01:42
Lock the Gate is a large group of farmers and other citizens concerned about coal mining and gas extraction. They’ve successfully fought coal seam gas extraction along the East Coast of Australia, and have emerged as a force to be reckoned with.
The group has just released an analysis suggesting coal mining is responsible for about half the dangerous particulate pollution in New South Wales.
Georgina Woods is the NSW campaign coordinator at Lock the Gate and has sent this in:
As well as dealing with more extreme droughts as global warming worsens, regional communities in Australia are suffering localised impacts of coal mining.
Lock the Gate Alliance, a network of community groups protecting their land and water from coal and gas mining, has today released analysis showing coal mining is responsible for the majority of dangerous particulate air pollution in New South Wales.
Roughly half of this is created by five of the biggest mines. They’re all in the Hunter Valley – an important agricultural region, which is home to renowned wineries and horse studs.
The state’s most-polluting coal mines are choking the Hunter Valley’s skies, damaging the health of local people and their children, contributing to the hundreds of deaths in NSW that are caused every year by particulate pollution.
This analysis is part of Lock the Gate’s submission to the NSW’s Government’s Clean Air Plan, which closes for consultation today.
1.35am GMT
01:35
Elle Hunt
A big-picture question posed by CassandrasVoice in the comments: how long have we got?
This is a question I'd love answered by any expert who wants to weigh in:
Since a friend who works in sustainable agriculture said to me that she thought we had a 50:50 chance of becoming grandparents (i.e., that we had perhaps another 25 years before the world stops supporting human populations) I've been trying to find anything at all that quantifies the impending disaster. And it's hard to find! I read about increasing temperatures, rising seas, the sixth extinction, but it's still hard to find anybody willing to say: according to this model, if nothing changes, we have X years left before Specific Bad Things affect our daily lives.
Do you think that climate scientists should team up with communications experts and find a way to paint a stark picture of how things will (may) be, day to day, in the next generation? Just like putting faces to things like the refugee crisis helps move along the appetite for political change, it might help to have snapshots of different populations and how they'll suffer? Including and especially in the west?
It’s a tough one, but if you’ve got thoughts or ideas, we’d love to hear them.
1.31am GMT
01:31
We’ve heard about the impact of rising sea levels in Kiribati, and Guardian Australia’s Mike Bowers’ personal recollection of his visit there – now David Tong, now a campaigner at WWF in New Zealand, has written about his time in South Tarawa, an atoll of only 16 sq km of land, last September.
Love to Choi, Kiribati's #climate change officer, but he's wrong to say there are no deniers there. There are two. https://t.co/vK0mIgJakP
It’s quite a chilling account of living on the front line of rising sea waters.
“Climate change impacts are real and obvious. On my first day in Bairiki, I walked along the beach behind the President’s house. The sea wall was broken in several places, and the beach was littered with rubbish. I couldn’t understand where all the rubbish came from – were the broken TVs from passing cruise ships or something?
“My I-Kiribati colleagues explained that the rubbish on the beaches had mostly come from people’s houses. With the highest point on Tarawa only 3m above sea level, storm surges and king tides flood homes, pulling people’s property back with them. Over the following weeks and months, the sea dumps its takings back on the beaches.”
David Tong said that a storm surge following Cyclone Pam flooded South Tarawa’s maternity hospital, with flooding reaching hundreds of metres inland, killing pandanus trees and destroying taro pits.
“I heard talk of people putting sugar in their water, to counteract the salty taste. ... Already on Abiang, the nearest outlying island to Tarawa, salt water is bubbling up from the soil at king tides.”
I-Kiribati are working to develop salt-resistant crops, and President Mamau has pledged to make a plan for every community and every island. “Our choices in the rich world will decide whether that’s possible,” said David Tong, who’s returning to Kiribati in February: “The place gets under your skin.”
1.23am GMT1.23am GMT
01:2301:23
Calla WahlquistCalla Wahlquist
Victoria, the most fire-prone state in Australia, overhauled its emergency management model following the devastating Black Saturday bushfires of 9 February 2009, which killed 173 people and destroyed two small alpine towns.Victoria, the most fire-prone state in Australia, overhauled its emergency management model following the devastating Black Saturday bushfires of 9 February 2009, which killed 173 people and destroyed two small alpine towns.
The result was a new control structure, Emergency Management Victoria, which operates out of the State Control Centre in Melbourne.The result was a new control structure, Emergency Management Victoria, which operates out of the State Control Centre in Melbourne.
On a day with a fire danger rating of extreme or above, or in the event of a natural disaster, the room fills up with the heads of Victoria’s fire and flood agencies.On a day with a fire danger rating of extreme or above, or in the event of a natural disaster, the room fills up with the heads of Victoria’s fire and flood agencies.
Steve Riley, manager of the centre, talked us through it. Here’s the interview:Steve Riley, manager of the centre, talked us through it. Here’s the interview:
1.16am GMT1.16am GMT
01:1601:16
We’re going to wrap up our Q&A with Jason Roberts in Antarctica now. Thanks to everyone for all the excellent questions. And thanks especially to Jason for taking the time out of his research down there to engage with us all. Apologies to those answers we didn’t get to.We’re going to wrap up our Q&A with Jason Roberts in Antarctica now. Thanks to everyone for all the excellent questions. And thanks especially to Jason for taking the time out of his research down there to engage with us all. Apologies to those answers we didn’t get to.
To close it off, here’s one last question and answer.To close it off, here’s one last question and answer.
@MikeySlezak Is Antarctic volume being affected by climate change. The deniers all say ant ice is increasing.@MikeySlezak Is Antarctic volume being affected by climate change. The deniers all say ant ice is increasing.
And Jason’s answer:And Jason’s answer:
This is a question that we hear often, and it’s great that people are still asking it, and want to know the answer. There is some confusion around this due to the changing amount of sea ice, and confusion between it and grounded ice.This is a question that we hear often, and it’s great that people are still asking it, and want to know the answer. There is some confusion around this due to the changing amount of sea ice, and confusion between it and grounded ice.
The area of sea ice is changing, due mainly to changes in the ocean currents and wind, moving the sea ice around and packing it together in areas. The ice on Antarctica (the so called grounded ice) is decreasing.The area of sea ice is changing, due mainly to changes in the ocean currents and wind, moving the sea ice around and packing it together in areas. The ice on Antarctica (the so called grounded ice) is decreasing.
Like any big land mass, things vary from area to area, but overall Antarctica is losing ice. We have several independent lines of evidence to support that. The most direct way is that satellites and aircraft (including the project I’m currently in Antarctica working on) measure the height of the surface of the ice sheet using lasers and radars. They show that many of the outlet glaciers and surrounding ice catchments are lowering, which can only happen if they are losing ice. The second way is that the gravitational field of the ice can be measured from space, we can “weigh the ice sheet” and it is weighing less over time.Like any big land mass, things vary from area to area, but overall Antarctica is losing ice. We have several independent lines of evidence to support that. The most direct way is that satellites and aircraft (including the project I’m currently in Antarctica working on) measure the height of the surface of the ice sheet using lasers and radars. They show that many of the outlet glaciers and surrounding ice catchments are lowering, which can only happen if they are losing ice. The second way is that the gravitational field of the ice can be measured from space, we can “weigh the ice sheet” and it is weighing less over time.
Again like any big area, things can change from year to year, but overall the pattern is that Antarctica is losing grounded ice, and especially the smaller (and therefore quicker to respond to any changes) West Antarctic region.Again like any big area, things can change from year to year, but overall the pattern is that Antarctica is losing grounded ice, and especially the smaller (and therefore quicker to respond to any changes) West Antarctic region.
1.04am GMT1.04am GMT
01:0401:04
Mike BowersMike Bowers
Kiribati has a permanent population of around 100,000, over half live on the densely populated South Tarawa. Fresh water is drawn from wells that tap into a “water lens” which is a convex layer of fresh water that lays on top of the denser salt water. Kiribati: The 33 atolls and reef islands straddle the equator and are spread across an area of over 3 million square miles. The eastern Line Islands are the first place in the world to greet the sun everyday as the international date line has to bend around them so that they are on the same day as the rest of the group.
It is usually the only source of fresh water. But as sea level has been rising, the salinity of the water lens on some of the outer atolls has made it unusable for human consumption. For the population of 100,000 the issues facing them are complex and urgent. Extreme weather events, storm surges and tides are eroding and threatening the precious land space.
More than half the population live on the main island of Tarawa. The delicate fresh water supplies that sit underneath most of the islands in what is called a water “lens” which is basically fresh water that floats on the denser salt water that surrounds the islands.
The encroaching sea is making much of this supply brackish and in some cases unusable, it is also affecting the soils and in some villages the former growing areas have become a saline desert which will not support any life.
Garbage and leaching from heavy metals which lie all over the islands also contaminate the precious water supplies. The infant and under 5 mortality rate sits at a shocking 56 deaths per 1000 live births (2015 UN Inter agency group) In 2014 the Kiribati Government purchased about 20 square kilometres on the island of Vanua Levu in Fiji to for Agricultural projects and fish farming.
For the people of Kiribati climate change is not an argument, they live with the changes every day in complex ways that make their lives difficult and their future uncertain. They seem genuinely surprised when you tell them that there are people in Australia who don’t believe that anything is happening to the climate of the world.
As I photographed Toani Benson standing in water on the ruins of a shop on Abaiang Island where he used to fill his scooter as a school child in the mid nineties remarked “perhaps you should bring those people here.”
This photograph shows children bathing in one of these shallow wells in South Tarawa.This photograph shows children bathing in one of these shallow wells in South Tarawa.
Updated
at 1.36am GMT
1.04am GMT1.04am GMT
01:0401:04
HOUR 18: Rounded out with a jellyfishHOUR 18: Rounded out with a jellyfish
Elle HuntElle Hunt
Over the last 60 minutes –Over the last 60 minutes –
Readers have had their sometimes fairly technical questions about Antarctica answered by Jason Roberts via email, direct from Casey Station – thanks to Jason and the Australian Antarctic Division for their contributionReaders have had their sometimes fairly technical questions about Antarctica answered by Jason Roberts via email, direct from Casey Station – thanks to Jason and the Australian Antarctic Division for their contribution
Roberts commented on the seasonal closure of the British Antarctic Survey’s Halley VI research station on the Brunt Ice Shelf, announced earlier this week as a result of uncertainty over cracks in the iceRoberts commented on the seasonal closure of the British Antarctic Survey’s Halley VI research station on the Brunt Ice Shelf, announced earlier this week as a result of uncertainty over cracks in the ice
We flagged a march in Sydney on Saturday, organised by Greenpeace Australia to coincide with Donald Trump’s inaugurationWe flagged a march in Sydney on Saturday, organised by Greenpeace Australia to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration
Mikey Slezak and WWF Australia together made you even more aware of penguins on Penguin Awareness Day (let us know when you’d like us to stop)Mikey Slezak and WWF Australia together made you even more aware of penguins on Penguin Awareness Day (let us know when you’d like us to stop)
Mikey let his professionalism give way to panic (and let me just say, if Mikey’s panicking – so should the rest of us)Mikey let his professionalism give way to panic (and let me just say, if Mikey’s panicking – so should the rest of us)
Responding to Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from New Zealand, a reader shared a graph of 400,000 years’ data to show that the worst may be yet to comeResponding to Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from New Zealand, a reader shared a graph of 400,000 years’ data to show that the worst may be yet to come
And we heard from Lisa Gershwin about how climate change may affect jellyfishAnd we heard from Lisa Gershwin about how climate change may affect jellyfish
To come: reporting from Australia and we’ll venture into Asia.To come: reporting from Australia and we’ll venture into Asia.
12.57am GMT
00:57
Elle Hunt
I see we are being offered access to some poor scientist stuck out in Antarctica.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/giant-iceberg-poised-to-break-off-from-antarctic-shelf-larsen-c
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/british-antarctic-station-halley-vi-to-shut-down-winter-crack-in-ice
I bet he is having a cracking time :(
As Matthew2012 references below the line, a British research station in Antarctica has decided to relocate its 16 staff who were due to stay there over winter due to uncertainty over growing cracks in the ice.
The British Antarctic Survey said in a statement on Monday that the Halley VI research station would shut down over winter due to concerns over changes to the Brunt ice shelf. A station relocation further inland away from the chasm is already underway.
Jason Roberts says:
Yeah, I saw in the news about Halley VI research station having to close down over winter. The biggest factors working in Antarctica are safety and looking after the environment. You are a long way/time away from any outside help, so you need to do things properly and in a safe manner.
I have never visited Halley, but imagine that it has been designed so that it can be closed down over winter and then brought back into operational order next summer, when conditions will be more favourable. The three Australian Antarctic research stations are built on rock, so luckily we don’t have to deal with this issue. I wish our British colleagues every luck with the relocation of Halley.
Do you remember when we couldn't get access to the Guardian journalists Alok Jha and Laurence Topham because they were stuck in ice while reporting on, er, the lack of ice and they had to be rescued from the ice whose absence they had gone to report?
Thanks to BettyLousGettinOut for bringing this story from 2014 to my attention. I feel quite grateful to be reporting in relative comfort from the office in Sydney (today: overcast, grey).
12.54am GMT
00:54
I’ve been in touch with Australian Jellyfish expert, Lisa-Ann Gershwin – Director of the Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Services.
I just got this excellent photo from Jellyfish expert @LisaGershwin: "Here's a photo of me working hard in my Jellyfish-bloom office." pic.twitter.com/1EmBxgir4q
She’s written this Facebbok post for us, discussing the threat of Jellyfish taking over as the climate warms. While there’s been a lot of talk of jellyfish doing well and filling the oceans, she says not all jellyfish will be winners.
12.50am GMT
00:50
Elle Hunt
Another answer from Antarctica.
@ Jason Roberts
“The last time we were in what’s called an interglacial - when we didn’t have the big ice sheets in the northern hemisphere – that was about 120,000 years ago when the climate was about what it’s like now,” Roberts says.
This is perhaps an opportunity to clear up a question I had which is the ice cores are of very different lengths with Epica Dome C being the most noted at 800,000 years.
Is the reason that we don't have ice cores longer than 123,000 years in Greenland because :
A) there is believed to be no permanent ice then?
or
B) simply that the ice sheets moved at this time breaking the usable cores?
or
C) pressure and geothermal energy has melted the ice from below?
Jason Roberts said:
That’s a very good question, and slightly outside my field of study, which is strictly Antarctica, but I’ll have a go at answering it. I think there is some evidence of older ice in Greenland than 123,000 years, but none that has been successfully recovered in an ice core, and more importantly dated. In general Greenland is much closer to the equator than Antarctica, and is more sensitive to warming air temperatures, so we think that during extended warm periods it would be a much smaller ice sheet and not extend to the coast like it currently does.
When you drill an ice core, because of the way the ice had flowed over tens of thousands of years, the layers of ice that fell in any year get thinner and thinner, making it much more difficult to date the bottom of an ice core. In addition, the ice slowly moves so it can get folded up (think of the patterns your can see in rocks in road cuttings), and this disturbance in the ice at the bottom can make it very hard to use the very bottom of an ice core.
Another factor for Greenland is that it is much smaller than Antarctica, so it just takes less time for the flowing ice to move to the edge and be lost to the ocean. So the ice gets replaced over much shorter timescales than in Antarctica.
The geothermal energy question is good. In fact there is liquid water found at the base of Greenland in places, including the NEEM core which reached the folded ice from the last interglacial period. So yes, this is also a factor – mostly it is just a question of how long it takes for new snow to completely move to the bottom of the ice and get discharged at the edges.
Trust that answered your question, Matthew2012. I must admit, I’m impressed by the level of technical knowledge being displayed below the line...
12.47am GMT
00:47
Elle Hunt
Below the line, Erik Frederiksen has responded to a quote from Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst from the Otago Regional Council, in Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from Dunedin, New Zealand.
From the article:
Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst for the Otago Regional Council.
“With the issue of sea-level rise we are looking at big storms increasing in frequency and severity...so people that would ordinarily have a fairly low risk of being flooded by the sea may now expect that adverse event to happen every ten years rather than every 100 years.”
Notice how far CO2 has blown off the graph, and hence how far temperature and sea level have to rise to equilibrate with just our current forcing.
We could blow much further off that chart.
(The graph of 400,000 years of data Erik meant to link to is here.)
Eleanor noted that 2016 was the hottest year on record for New Zealand, with droughts in the North Island and 11m of rain on the west coast of the South Island.
Eleanor is based in Dunedin and says the southern university town is being seen as a litmus test for how the rest of the country may fare in the coming years, with numerous flat, low-lying beach side communities built on marshy land mere metres above the sea.
“It all comes down to the fact that New Zealanders love to live by the ocean,” Dr Hornblow told Eleanor. “But if we were planning those homes with the wisdom we have today, we would not have people living there at all, or be building on those flat areas so close to the sea.”
12.38am GMT
00:38
I don’t normally write about personal things, but recently I’ve been thinking about people’s emotional responses to the devastation that climate change has been causing – and will cause in the future.
For years I’ve understood the crisis we’re facing, but I’ve managed to maintain a kind of professional distance from it – not feeling enormously strong emotions about it.
But recently that’s change. Here are my thoughts about why.
12.31am GMT
00:31
A question from Twitter this time, about a reported increase of ice and snow in Antarctica.
@MikeySlezak Hello. A question for Jason Roberts in Antarctica: Is there actually an increase of ice/snow there or was that just a 'blip'?
Jason Roberts responds:
Like anything involving such a big area as Antarctica, things vary a lot across the continent. From an Australian context, just think about floods and bushfires happening at the same time.
In general Antarctica as a whole is losing some ice, with this mainly happening in West Antarctica (the bit on the South American side of the Trans Antarctic Mountains). On the larger East Antarctic side, things are a bit more in balance, with some areas losing ice, and some currently gaining ice through extra snowfall.
Of course getting detailed measurements is difficult in Antarctica (there are only a few weather stations) so we rely a lot on satellites to make these measurements, so there is some uncertainty about just how large some of the changes are.
To make things harder, things are changing with time as well – again, just think in an Australian context, some years are wetter than others.
12.26am GMT
00:26
In Sydney Australia, there is going to be a march on the first full day after Trump is inaugurated. Greenpeace and other NGOs will be there marching to demonstrate on both climate change, and women’s rights.
Updated
at 12.29am GMT
12.25am GMT
00:25
Another missive from the Casey Station on Antarctica.
I have another set for Jason!
Also in the news, there appears to be more sea ice around Antarctica. Can you please explain how a warming climate can cause "more" sea ice to be present? What does this mean to the ice on the continent?
Jason Roberts:
That’s an interesting question about the sea ice, and one that keeps coming up.
While the air temperature and temperature at the surface of the ocean is important in forming sea ice, probably the biggest factor controlling how much sea ice is around Antarctica is the ocean currents (and the wind patterns over the water). These move the sea ice around, and can cause it to build up in certain areas as it all gets pushed together. Once this happens, it can influence the ocean, for example waves get damped out by the sea ice, which stop them breaking up the sea ice. So it is more to do with the changes in ocean and wind patterns than temperature.
There isn’t much direct coupling between the changes in the sea ice and ice on the continent. Most Antarctic sea is only one year old (although there are areas of so-called “multi-year sea ice”), while the ice on the continent is much older, tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The things that affect the ice on the continent are the amount of snow that falls to replenish it, the air temperature over summer for melting it, and how stable the ice shelves are that help hold back the glaciers.
Keep your questions coming below the line.
12.21am GMT
00:21
WWF Australia has jumped on the penguin awareness day bandwagon too, and included a some punny jokes in their Facebook post.
12.18am GMT
00:18
Elle Hunt
Jason Roberts of the Australian Antarctic Division has replied to CgGc13’s question below the line on the impact of the breaking up of the Lambert ice sheet.
Questions for Jason Roberts when he comes on. In recent news, the Lambert ice sheet (shelf) is setting up to break apart again. When this goes, what will the result be for West Antarctica? Do you see this having any impact on the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet?
Jason says:
The ice shelf that has a major rift in it is the Larsen ice shelf. Parts of this ice shelf collapsed around 10 years ago, that time is just disintegrated, while this time in looks like calving a big iceberg. The previous collapse reduced the forces holding back the glaciers that feed this ice shelf, and the speed up (more than doubling their speed) in the following years, although I think the most recent studies are showing that they are starting to slow back down. We can probably expect similar behaviour when this shelf calves this time.
On a global scale, the glaciers feeding the Larsen are fairly small and don’t contain a huge amount of ice. But their significance is more that they are the canary in the coal mine, showing us how vulnerable these ice shelves are to changes in the surrounding ocean.