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Global warning: live from the climate-change frontline as Trump becomes president Global warning: reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic about humans tackling climate change
(35 minutes later)
11.22am GMT
11:22
Emily Wilson
Back to more positive actions that individuals can take. For obvious reasons most of these tips (again from Chris Goodall) focus on what wealthier citizens (which includes most westerners) can do. Here are three:
• The CO2 impact of goods and services is often strikingly different from what you’d expect. Mike Berners-Lee’s book How Bad Are Bananas? takes an entertaining and well-informed look at what really matters. Bananas, for example, are fine because they are shipped by sea. But organic asparagus flown in from Peru is much more of a problem.
• Invest in your own sources of renewable energy. Putting solar panels on the roof still usually makes financial sense, even after most countries have ceased to subsidise installation. Or buy shares in new cooperatively owned wind, solar or hydroelectric plants that are looking for finance. The financial returns won’t be huge – perhaps 5% a year in the UK, for example – but the income is far better than leaving your money in a bank.
• Buy from companies that support the switch to a low-carbon future. An increasing number of businesses are committed to 100% renewable energy. Unilever, the global consumer goods business, says its operations will be better than carbon-neutral by 2030. Those of us concerned about climate change should buy from businesses acting most aggressively to reduce their climate impact.
11.13am GMT
11:13
Emily Wilson
Over the next hour we’re going to try to focus on the positive. We’ll look more at what we can all do as individuals, and at inspirational work both locally and internationally to combat manmade climate change.
It’s really easy to feel despairing and overwhelmed about climate change. Personally I found this piece by Chris Goodall today to be both inspiring and cheering. He writes about how he used to believe that only massive government subsidies would make clean energy a success, which basically meant it would be a failure. Now he admits he was “completely wrong” about that, and argues that the end of the fossil-fuel era is already in sight:
In fact, optimism about successfully tackling climate change has never been more justified, because 2016 was the year in which it finally became obvious that the world had the technology to solve the problem. Even as the political environment has darkened, the reasons have strengthened for believing that a complete transition to low-carbon energy is practical and affordable within one generation.
The full article is here.
Updated
at 11.13am GMT
11.09am GMT
11:09
HOUR FOUR: Europe, from peak to coast. Plus the climate change symphony
Mark Rice-Oxley
So Europe might not be on the frontline of climate change but it’s already feeling the depradations of flooding, drought, and rising sea levels.
Over the past hour we’ve reported on:
In Italy, questions as to whether climate change might transform wine making.
Insurers reporting a sharp increase in weather-related payouts.
And we are still trying to draw climate change.
Finally, another fact for you:
Since you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ
Updated
at 11.10am GMT
10.57am GMT
10:57
Mark Rice-Oxley
Of course, different parts of Europe face different challenges.
In Spain, Sam Jones reports that some forecasters believe that southern Spain will be reduced to desert by 2100 if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked.
Researchers looked at the consequences for vegetation in the Mediterranean basin under a variety of possible temperature rises. In the worst case scenario – which would see global temperatures rising by nearly 5C by the end of the century – deserts would expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and deciduous forests would be replaced by Mediterranean vegetation. Roughly a third of Spain would find itself as arid by then as the Tabernas desert in Almería is today.
As one ecologist has pointed out, a rise of nearly 5C would be “like bringing Casablanca to Madrid”.
This warming has implications for the Alps too. The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner, says that in the Italian resort of Obereggen, sometimes it has not been cold enough to give the town much time to crank up its snow production.
Resident Thomas Ondertoller told her:
Last year we had one week to make the snow. We use a lot of water, and a lot of technical expertise, to make as much snow as possible, because usually after that there is a warm period.
For the passionate skier, the product is perfect. For the romantic skier, something is missing,” he says.
Further north, it is the sea, not the snow that is the problem, Jennifer Rankin reports from Belgium.
Authorities in Flanders, guardians of Belgium’s 73km strip of coastline, are spending €8m (£6.9m) to investigate whether they can build an island to keep the rising tide at bay. The newest bit of Belgium would be off the coast of Knokke, the genteel resort best known for its picturesque dunes and posh golf course. Under an early plan, the island would be 40 hectares big, but could be made 10 times larger over time.
Across the border, the Dutch have built the world’s biggest storm barrier, near Rotterdam. The Maeslant barrier – two enormous steel gates almost as long as the Eiffel tower – is designed to protect the port city and the rest of southern Holland from a once in a 10,000-year storm.
Peter Persoon, an engineer-turned-tour guide, said:
What we tell the people here in the Netherlands is, if the country is flooded the damage will be at least €700bn.
If you instead spend every year one billion euros, you spread the bill over 700 years. That is, I think, the Dutch way.”
Updated
at 11.02am GMT
10.55am GMT
10:55
Stephanie Kirchgaessner
For years, the biggest problem facing vineyard owners in Tuscany’s Chianti region has been the prevalence of scavaging wild boars in the area, a relatively modern phenomenon in the ancient winemaking region.
But the threat of climate change could soon eclipse the havoc that has been wrought by the swine, according to a local climatologist who said changes in temperature are already having an effect on wine production in Italy.
Giampiero Maracchi, a professor at the University of Florence and expert in sustainability and agriculture, says rising temperatures have already increased the amount of sugar in wines from the north to the south of Italy, though the change might not yet be noticeable.
“For the time being, there has been no real negative effect on quality. For the future, it is yet to be seen,” he said.
There has been another change related to climate that is sure to have a bigger impact: harvests in Chianti are now happening earlier than in the past. The harvest period used to be around 1 October, he said, but now it is happening between 1-15 September, often because of heatwaves. These are occurring with greater frequency and intensity in the summer months, leading to a faster maturation of the grapes.
It means that in the future, in a decade to three decades from now, grapes in the Chianti region may require irrigation, which is not required now.
“If we look to the models, with the projected increases in temperature, there will be a water shortage and probably in the future – 10 or 20 or 30 years – we should require some irrigation for grapes. It means we should have some reservoirs of water,” he said.
Maracchi said the issue is not necessarily at the top of farmers’ minds, though it should be.
“You know, up until the time comes that they can see some effect from the economic point of view, they are not concerned,” he said. “They should be, in my opinion, because climate change is a general problem and we [will] have a lot of trouble.”
It is not just an Italian phenomenon. In its 2016 global wine output estimate, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine last year said it expected global wine production to drop by about 5% due to “climatic events”, causing steep drops in production in Chile and Argentina.
While the group did not point a finger of blame at climate change specifically, it suggested that global warming, coupled with natural climate variability, were causing a profound change in the wine business, and had made 2016 one of the worst wine production periods in the past two decades.
10.41am GMT10.41am GMT
10:4110:41
Jennifer RankinJennifer Rankin
The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect.The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect.
Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded.Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded.
Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia.Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia.
Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep.Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep.
This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian:This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian:
Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration.Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration.
He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes.He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes.
Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict.Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict.
British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else.British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else.
This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing.This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing.
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.42am GMTat 10.42am GMT
10.29am GMT10.29am GMT
10:2910:29
Emily WilsonEmily Wilson
The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today.The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today.
It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him:It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him:
There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy.There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy.
You can read the full leader here.You can read the full leader here.
10.21am GMT10.21am GMT
10:2110:21
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ...More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ...
But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here.But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here.
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.34am GMTat 10.34am GMT
10.20am GMT10.20am GMT
10:2010:20
Arthur NeslenArthur Neslen
If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit.If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit.
And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent.And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent.
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980.Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980.
Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world.Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world.
Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me:Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me:
In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980.In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980.
Here’s the full article.Here’s the full article.
10.06am GMT10.06am GMT
10:0610:06
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times.Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times.
The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.18am GMTat 10.18am GMT
10.04am GMT
10:04
HOUR THREE: the UK, flooding – and the carbon countdown clock
Mark Rice-Oxley
So the UK is by no means immune to climate change, and in the next hour, we’ll discover that that goes for Europe too.
Do keep your comments coming – there’s a really vibrant debate going on below the line. If you would prefer a Spanish version, have a look at what our partners Univision are doing here. And if you fancy contributing something more artistic or visual, then Tumblr is the place to go.
Finally, our fact of the hour, on the hour, every hour. Well, five minutes late – sorry about that.
Updated
at 10.05am GMT
9.57am GMT
09:57
Severin Carrell
The UK’s attempts to cut its CO2 emissions are in real danger of being undermined unless ministers tackle the continuing erosion of peatlands, which store several billion tonnes of carbon, Scottish environment campaigners have warned.
Recent studies estimate that damaged peatlands – most frequently found in upland areas, already release about 16m tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year through erosion, burning for grouse shooting and overgrazing. Scientists expect that to worsen dramatically as rising temperatures dry out peatland in rain-starved areas, and extreme weather events increase, without concerted effort to protect and conserve them. That in turn will increase flash flooding of lowland towns and villages.
Scientists estimate that Scottish peatlands, which cover about a quarter of Scotland’s landmass, lock up about 1.7 gigatonnes of CO2.
Jonny Hughes, chief executive of the Scottish Wildlife Trust and chair of the UK’s International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) peatlands project said:
Peatlands are just not in good enough health to withstand the effects of climate change in the coming decades.
Watching peatland landscapes washed away due to climate change sounds like a dystopian nightmare. Yet climate modelling predicts it to be a very real threat, leading to the loss of millions of tonnes of carbon and the destruction of an entire living ecosystem.”
Updated
at 10.22am GMT
9.52am GMT
09:52
Emily Wilson
Here are three more tips on individual action you can take to help, courtesy of Chris Goodall:
LEDs (light-emitting diodes) have become cheap and effective. If you have any energy-guzzling halogen lights in your house – many people have them in kitchens and bathrooms – it makes good financial and carbon sense to replace as many as possible with their LED equivalents. They should last at least 10 years, meaning you avoid the hassle of buying new halogen bulbs every few months. Not only will your CO2 footprint fall, but because LEDs are so efficient, you will also help reduce the need for national grids to turn on the most expensive and polluting power stations at peak demand times on winter evenings.
Frequent use of a tumble dryer will add to your energy bill to an extent that may surprise you. But when buying a new appliance, don’t assume you will benefit financially from buying the one with the lowest level of energy consumption. There’s often a surprising premium to really efficient fridges or washing machines.
Consume less. Simply buying less stuff is a good route to lower emissions. A new woollen man’s suit may have a carbon impact equivalent to your home’s electricity use for a month. A single T-shirt may have caused emissions equal to two or three days’ typical power consumption. Buying fewer and better things has an important role to play.
Updated
at 9.54am GMT
9.49am GMT
09:49
Damian Carrington
Turning our attention to the UK, climate change is already affecting parts of Britain, principally by increasing the risk of extreme flooding and heatwaves, and on Wednesday the government accepted almost all of the current and future risks set out by its official advisors, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
The CCC’s report, published in July, concluded the UK was poorly prepared for global warming and set out six priority risk areas. The first two were rated as high risk now, with more action needed.
Flooding already causes £1bn of damage every year on average but the risks will rise yet further as climate change leads to more intense rainfall, bringing floods to places not currently in danger. The number of households at significant risk of flooding will more than double to 1.9m by 2050, if the global temperature rises by 4C.
The deadly heatwave of 2003, which peaked at 38.5C in the UK, will be a normal summer by the 2040s, leading to heat-related deaths more than tripling. There are currently no policies to ensure homes, schools, hospitals and offices remain tolerable in high heat.
Severe water shortages are expected as summers get drier and, by the 2050s, will extend across the UK. If temperatures are driven up significantly, many places in the UK will have a demand for water 2.5 times greater than that available.
Climate change is likely to drive food prices up, with extreme weather leading to lost crops and price shocks. About 40% of UK food is imported, making the UK vulnerable to droughts and floods driven by climate change around the world.
The proportion of prime farmland is expected to fall from 38% to 9% with significant warming, and crop growing in eastern England and Scotland could be ended by degraded soil and water shortages. Warming seas are pushing key species northwards, which may affect the entire marine food chain.
New dangers may invade the UK as the climate gets warmer and requires urgent research. “The impacts are potentially high for otherwise healthy people, animals and plants,” the report states. “Higher temperatures will lead to an increased risk of the Asian tiger mosquito, the vector of Chikungunya virus, dengue fever and Zika virus. The current risk remains low, but may increase in the future.”
The CCC also warned that climate-stoked wars and migration around the world could have very significant consequences for the UK, through disrupted trade and more military intervention overseas.
On Wednesday, environment minister Lord Gardiner said
Our changing climate is one of the most serious environmental challenges that we face as a nation and that is why we are taking action, from improving flood defences across the country to securing our critical food and water supplies.
Professor Hugh Montgomery, at University College London added:
Acting on climate change can also boost people’s health. If we get it right, our efforts to tackle climate change avoid some of these risks, and directly benefit health: renewable power doesn’t generate health-damaging pollutants, for example, while walking or cycling improves health.”
And with that in mind, here come some more tips:
Updated
at 9.50am GMT
9.35am GMT
09:35
James Walsh
We’ve had some great comments below the line this morning. If you have any questions for our head of environment, Damian Carrington, please post them there. We’ll hold an answer session at 1pm.
Herewith some intriguing comments.
Stefana Broadbent wonders about a “spiral of silence” caused by people fearing to speak out:
Thank you for this front page rolling update. The importance of your constant reminder of the topic is really crucial. In a recent series of studies we saw that people rarely talk about climate change at home or with friends even though they are extremely worried about it. https://medium.com/if-you-want-to/silence-about-climate-change-doesnt-mean-behaviours-aren-t-changing-56b1cbdbf440#.rs589m3my. This "spiral of silence" is brought about by the feeling that people around us don't share the concern and it could be embarrassing to raise the issue. Your articles therefore not only inform but reassure many of us that the topic is important and we are not alone in our concern. Interestingly we also found that people are silently changing their habits much more than they publicly discuss. This at least is encouraging.
Another Guardian commenter discusses the importance of finding common ground, regardless of wider political stances:
Thanks Guardian for putting climate change so prominently centre stage for this troubling regime change.
I've been banging on in comment for a while now, that while this transition is extremely depressing there is also are also valuable opportunities.
First , Rex Tillerson is an advocate of revenue neutral carbon taxation. This is exactly the kind of policy that many climate activists have been pressing for while without getting any traction with mainstream politicians.
It's an attractive policy because it fits all political persuasions including the ideology of the kind of folks that have just voted for Trump. Lets face it , we weren't doing enough anyway, this kind of radical tax overhaul to reflect the external costs of fossil fuels is the only way forward.
Let's exploit this apparent common ground with a key member of this incoming administration and hold him to his own words.
And this commenter wonders about personal responsibility.
I haven't flown anywhere for some years for personal or financial reasons. My last trip was to Paris on Eurostar. Most people fly because its cheaper. I would travel everywhere by train if fares were more reasonable. My partner is Norwegian and we did the trip there on the ferry from Newcastle but it no longer runs and he can fly cheaper to Oslo than we can travel from Yorkshire to London. I know several people who have relatives In Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They have to fly. Maybe if alternatives were as cheap as flying we could cut down short haul significantly.I haven't eaten meat since 1979. I don't miss it. Many people I know have cut down on meat but more for health reasons.My problem is my house built in 1916. Its been a financial struggle to maintain let alone insulate it or put in double glazing which seems very poor in the UK. People I know who have it are always complaining that it fails and often needs fixing. I have no cavity walls. I have thick or insulated curtains in most rooms and I don't have heating all day. In the winter I often sit in bed if I'm reading or on the laptop to keep warm. I don't actually like central heating. It bungs up my nose and makes my eyes dry.
And finally LordInsect asked for a graphic on carbon emissions. I’m happy to say we have two:
And this:
Updated
at 9.43am GMT
9.18am GMT
09:18
Mark Rice-Oxley
Before we move on to Europe and the UK, this is a neat piece of work from my colleague Nick Evershed, the Guardian’s head of data and interactives in Australia. It shows how much carbon we are emitting right now – and how much we have “left to burn” if we want to keep global warming within the 2C band considered crucial by scientists to prevent serious damage to the planet.
Nick’s calculated that in just the 24 hour lifespan of this blog, the world will pump out more than 112m tons. Hard to visualise? Well let’s let the doomsday clock do the work:
9.08am GMT
09:08
HOUR TWO: Africa – droughts, ice melt and rising tides
Mark Rice-Oxley
So in summary, we’ve been focussed on Africa over the past hour:
rising sea levels in Alexandria
disappearing glaciers in Mt Kenya
an insurgency partially caused by climate change in west Africa
and hungry people in the south
And here’s another fact for our post-truth world:
Since you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ
9.01am GMT
09:01
Jason Burke
In South Africa meanwhile, an interesting distinction: while you might find plenty of climate change denial in western countries or oil powers, or even in the White House (from tomorrow), it’s not a common feature of local conversation here.
Melissa Fourie, executive director of the Centre for Environmental Rights, told me:
In South Africa, there has been very little of the climate denialist narrative you still see in the US and elsewhere. The South African government has been vocal in its commitment to the fight against climate change for many years, and there is a genuine popular understanding of the problem and consequences of climate change.
One reason for that is that ordinary people can already see the effects of climate change very clearly. The devastating drought that has plagued South Africa for the past two years, with ruinous knock-on effects on the rural economy and food prices, is a very real and tangible reminder of our vulnerability to climate change. We really are at the coalface of climate change, so to speak.
Updated
at 9.01am GMT
8.54am GMT
08:54
Jason Burke
I’ve been talking to Johannes Wedenig, country representative for Unicef in Malawi about the situation there.
He says climate change is making the weather hotter and more variable.
From 2000 to 2009 droughts effected 8.5 million people in Malawi, and floods affected 1.2 million. From 2010 to 2016 we have already reached 8.4 million people affected by drought and 875,000 by flooding. So we will see at least a third more over the decade if the trend continues.
But I’ve seen from my own experience that it’s the variability of weather phenomena that poses the greatest challenges to farmers in Malawi, especially when combined with an already fragile situation. People are selling their last assets and so are going into the next cycle even poorer, and unpredictability makes it very hard to plan and adapt.
Wedenig says these changes affect the poor disproportionately.
I’ve travelled widely in Africa but when I got here last year I was really shocked by the amount of acutely malnourished children. You wouldn’t necessarily expect to see such a severe impact here but Malawi shows the impact of climate change compounded by other factors such as soil degradation, population pressure and an over-reliance on a single crop (food source) as a result of past policy decisions.
My colleague John Vidal was in Malawi at the end of last year, and wrote movingly about the food shortages there. Here is his piece.
Updated
at 8.56am GMT
8.46am GMT
08:46
Murithi Mutiga
In east Africa, concerns are growing that the continent’s second highest peak, Mt Kenya, could be totally ice free within decades.
The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that 80% of East Africa’s glaciers have been lost since 1900. Mt Kenya has lost 92% of its glacial clover over the last century.
Scientists are divided over the precise causes of the steady retreat of the glaciers but many blame rising temperatures driven by climate change.
The consequences have been dire for locals. Glacial melt is one of the contributors to river flow in the region and many rivers have been drying up in recent years.
Seven million people depend on agriculture fed by the vital Mt Kenya water catchment area, which provides the bulk of the tea and coffee exports that are critical to Kenya’s economy. The area also hosts heavily visited national parks and reserves.
Although Africa has made a negligible contribution to the greenhouse emissions that cause climate change, many parts of the continent are expected to bear a great burden from the results of climate change.
Mathenge wa Iregi, who as a Gikuyu elder has spent many years offering prayers in the forests of Mt Kenya, says he does not need scientists to point out the dramatic changes upending people’s lives and considers the stance of climate-change skeptics like US president-elect Donald Trump baffling.
You just need to open your eyes. Mt Kenya was once a striking and impressive site and we even named it in reference to the glacial cover. Everything has changed within our lifetime. And that is simply because we human beings do not respect nature.