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Global warning: reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic about humans tackling climate change | |
(35 minutes later) | |
11.22am GMT | |
11:22 | |
Emily Wilson | |
Back to more positive actions that individuals can take. For obvious reasons most of these tips (again from Chris Goodall) focus on what wealthier citizens (which includes most westerners) can do. Here are three: | |
• The CO2 impact of goods and services is often strikingly different from what you’d expect. Mike Berners-Lee’s book How Bad Are Bananas? takes an entertaining and well-informed look at what really matters. Bananas, for example, are fine because they are shipped by sea. But organic asparagus flown in from Peru is much more of a problem. | |
• Invest in your own sources of renewable energy. Putting solar panels on the roof still usually makes financial sense, even after most countries have ceased to subsidise installation. Or buy shares in new cooperatively owned wind, solar or hydroelectric plants that are looking for finance. The financial returns won’t be huge – perhaps 5% a year in the UK, for example – but the income is far better than leaving your money in a bank. | |
• Buy from companies that support the switch to a low-carbon future. An increasing number of businesses are committed to 100% renewable energy. Unilever, the global consumer goods business, says its operations will be better than carbon-neutral by 2030. Those of us concerned about climate change should buy from businesses acting most aggressively to reduce their climate impact. | |
11.13am GMT | |
11:13 | |
Emily Wilson | |
Over the next hour we’re going to try to focus on the positive. We’ll look more at what we can all do as individuals, and at inspirational work both locally and internationally to combat manmade climate change. | |
It’s really easy to feel despairing and overwhelmed about climate change. Personally I found this piece by Chris Goodall today to be both inspiring and cheering. He writes about how he used to believe that only massive government subsidies would make clean energy a success, which basically meant it would be a failure. Now he admits he was “completely wrong” about that, and argues that the end of the fossil-fuel era is already in sight: | |
In fact, optimism about successfully tackling climate change has never been more justified, because 2016 was the year in which it finally became obvious that the world had the technology to solve the problem. Even as the political environment has darkened, the reasons have strengthened for believing that a complete transition to low-carbon energy is practical and affordable within one generation. | |
The full article is here. | |
Updated | |
at 11.13am GMT | |
11.09am GMT | |
11:09 | |
HOUR FOUR: Europe, from peak to coast. Plus the climate change symphony | |
Mark Rice-Oxley | |
So Europe might not be on the frontline of climate change but it’s already feeling the depradations of flooding, drought, and rising sea levels. | |
Over the past hour we’ve reported on: | |
In Italy, questions as to whether climate change might transform wine making. | |
Insurers reporting a sharp increase in weather-related payouts. | |
And we are still trying to draw climate change. | |
Finally, another fact for you: | |
Since you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ | |
Updated | |
at 11.10am GMT | |
10.57am GMT | |
10:57 | |
Mark Rice-Oxley | |
Of course, different parts of Europe face different challenges. | |
In Spain, Sam Jones reports that some forecasters believe that southern Spain will be reduced to desert by 2100 if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked. | |
Researchers looked at the consequences for vegetation in the Mediterranean basin under a variety of possible temperature rises. In the worst case scenario – which would see global temperatures rising by nearly 5C by the end of the century – deserts would expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and deciduous forests would be replaced by Mediterranean vegetation. Roughly a third of Spain would find itself as arid by then as the Tabernas desert in Almería is today. | |
As one ecologist has pointed out, a rise of nearly 5C would be “like bringing Casablanca to Madrid”. | |
This warming has implications for the Alps too. The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner, says that in the Italian resort of Obereggen, sometimes it has not been cold enough to give the town much time to crank up its snow production. | |
Resident Thomas Ondertoller told her: | |
Last year we had one week to make the snow. We use a lot of water, and a lot of technical expertise, to make as much snow as possible, because usually after that there is a warm period. | |
For the passionate skier, the product is perfect. For the romantic skier, something is missing,” he says. | |
Further north, it is the sea, not the snow that is the problem, Jennifer Rankin reports from Belgium. | |
Authorities in Flanders, guardians of Belgium’s 73km strip of coastline, are spending €8m (£6.9m) to investigate whether they can build an island to keep the rising tide at bay. The newest bit of Belgium would be off the coast of Knokke, the genteel resort best known for its picturesque dunes and posh golf course. Under an early plan, the island would be 40 hectares big, but could be made 10 times larger over time. | |
Across the border, the Dutch have built the world’s biggest storm barrier, near Rotterdam. The Maeslant barrier – two enormous steel gates almost as long as the Eiffel tower – is designed to protect the port city and the rest of southern Holland from a once in a 10,000-year storm. | |
Peter Persoon, an engineer-turned-tour guide, said: | |
What we tell the people here in the Netherlands is, if the country is flooded the damage will be at least €700bn. | |
If you instead spend every year one billion euros, you spread the bill over 700 years. That is, I think, the Dutch way.” | |
Updated | |
at 11.02am GMT | |
10.55am GMT | |
10:55 | |
Stephanie Kirchgaessner | |
For years, the biggest problem facing vineyard owners in Tuscany’s Chianti region has been the prevalence of scavaging wild boars in the area, a relatively modern phenomenon in the ancient winemaking region. | |
But the threat of climate change could soon eclipse the havoc that has been wrought by the swine, according to a local climatologist who said changes in temperature are already having an effect on wine production in Italy. | |
Giampiero Maracchi, a professor at the University of Florence and expert in sustainability and agriculture, says rising temperatures have already increased the amount of sugar in wines from the north to the south of Italy, though the change might not yet be noticeable. | |
“For the time being, there has been no real negative effect on quality. For the future, it is yet to be seen,” he said. | |
There has been another change related to climate that is sure to have a bigger impact: harvests in Chianti are now happening earlier than in the past. The harvest period used to be around 1 October, he said, but now it is happening between 1-15 September, often because of heatwaves. These are occurring with greater frequency and intensity in the summer months, leading to a faster maturation of the grapes. | |
It means that in the future, in a decade to three decades from now, grapes in the Chianti region may require irrigation, which is not required now. | |
“If we look to the models, with the projected increases in temperature, there will be a water shortage and probably in the future – 10 or 20 or 30 years – we should require some irrigation for grapes. It means we should have some reservoirs of water,” he said. | |
Maracchi said the issue is not necessarily at the top of farmers’ minds, though it should be. | |
“You know, up until the time comes that they can see some effect from the economic point of view, they are not concerned,” he said. “They should be, in my opinion, because climate change is a general problem and we [will] have a lot of trouble.” | |
It is not just an Italian phenomenon. In its 2016 global wine output estimate, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine last year said it expected global wine production to drop by about 5% due to “climatic events”, causing steep drops in production in Chile and Argentina. | |
While the group did not point a finger of blame at climate change specifically, it suggested that global warming, coupled with natural climate variability, were causing a profound change in the wine business, and had made 2016 one of the worst wine production periods in the past two decades. | |
10.41am GMT | 10.41am GMT |
10:41 | 10:41 |
Jennifer Rankin | Jennifer Rankin |
The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect. | The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect. |
Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded. | Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded. |
Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia. | Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia. |
Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep. | Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep. |
This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian: | This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian: |
Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration. | Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration. |
He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes. | He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes. |
Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict. | Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict. |
British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else. | British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else. |
This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing. | This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing. |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.42am GMT | at 10.42am GMT |
10.29am GMT | 10.29am GMT |
10:29 | 10:29 |
Emily Wilson | Emily Wilson |
The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today. | The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today. |
It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him: | It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him: |
There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy. | There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy. |
You can read the full leader here. | You can read the full leader here. |
10.21am GMT | 10.21am GMT |
10:21 | 10:21 |
Mark Rice-Oxley | Mark Rice-Oxley |
More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ... | More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ... |
But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here. | But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here. |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.34am GMT | at 10.34am GMT |
10.20am GMT | 10.20am GMT |
10:20 | 10:20 |
Arthur Neslen | Arthur Neslen |
If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit. | If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit. |
And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent. | And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent. |
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980. | Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980. |
Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world. | Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world. |
Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me: | Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me: |
In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980. | In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980. |
Here’s the full article. | Here’s the full article. |
10.06am GMT | 10.06am GMT |
10:06 | 10:06 |
Mark Rice-Oxley | Mark Rice-Oxley |
Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times. | Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times. |
The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead: | The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead: |
Updated | Updated |
at 10.18am GMT | at 10.18am GMT |