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Global warning: reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic about humans tackling climate change Global warning: reasons to be (cautiously) optimistic about humans tackling climate change
(35 minutes later)
12.31pm GMT
12:31
Mark Rice-Oxley
Of course, science is a vital part of our understanding of climate change, and down at the bottom of the earth, the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) are conducting a range of experiments and observations to keep tabs on any changes in conditions.
The BAS collaborated with us to get exclusive video back from the Antarctic, and my colleague Irene Baqué put together this short package to show what’s going on.
12.24pm GMT
12:24
Adam Vaughan
While flood defences are often criticised and the government is regularly accused of failing to account sufficiently for how much climate change is making it worse, the UK’s Thames barrier has been a real, unsung success story. Built in eight years, its six gates have never failed to protect London.
In the early hours of last Saturday morning, Steve East made a judgment call to protect Londoners from the Thames. Faced with tidal and weather forecasts and other data, the engineering manager of the Thames Barrier decided to raise it for the second occasion in 2017 and the 178th time since it was finished in 1982.
The result was a 3.3 metre differential – the height of the water level on the downstream side, which leads out to the North Sea, above the upstream side of central and west London, which the huge structure protects.
“It’s an art, not a science because we are making decisions on forecasts,” he tells me, as we overlook the barrier where the rotating gates are raised in times of need. East started working as an administrator at the barrier 31 years ago. Over that he time, he’s not seen a linear line showing the barrier being closed more frequently, but a more jagged line with spikes in individual years.
For example, in one recent year the barrier was closed on 50 occasions in just a three month period. Before that it had gone about two years without a closure. “It’s an easy decision to close it. The hard decision is not to close it,” he says. While closure protects Londoners and property from flooding, it also stops river traffic, wildlife such as seals, and puts a “strain on the asset”, as East puts it, wearing the barrier out.
The barrier should last until about 2070. Climate change means a 20-90cm sea level rise in the Thames by 2100, according to the Met Office and Defra, and East is clear: “There’s an acknowledgment that sea level rise will require a new barrier.”
Planning is just beginning on what location and size that barrier might take, but the project is anticipated to cost £10bn. Some of that money will go on raising and strengthening the tidal walls downstream of the barrier, and making space for water downstream to overflow into during tidal surges, such as car parks and playgrounds.
East thinks that when the barrier starts having 50 closures a year regularly – at the moment the average is four annually – that’s when a new barrier will be needed. But for now – even with the two closures in less than a month this year – “we’re a long way from that”.
Updated
at 12.27pm GMT
12.14pm GMT
12:14
Ruth Michaelson
Across the Middle East and north Africa, global warming means record temperatures, which in the summer can make life unbearable from Tehran to Tripoli.
The knock-on impact on farming in the region has been severe – indeed some people have even blamed the Arab spring partly on the way climate change has depleted agriculture.
But some enterprising farmers are finding ways to beat the drought, like this Egyptian extolling the virtues of hydroponic farming – that uses more than 95% less water by not planting in soil.
Updated
at 12.19pm GMT
12.04pm GMT
12:04
Emily Wilson
A final three tips on positive individual action here from Chris Goodall:
• For a decade, investors ignored the movement that advocated the divestment of holdings in fossil fuel companies. Large fuel companies and electricity generation businesses were able to raise the many billions of new finance they needed. Now, by contrast, money managers are increasingly wary of backing the investment plans of oil companies and switching to renewable projects. And universities and activist investors around the world are selling their holdings in fossil fuels, making it more difficult for these companies to raise new money. Vocal support for those backing out of oil, gas and coal helps keep up the pressure.
• Politicians tend to do what their electorates want. The last major UK government survey showed that 82% of people supported the use of solar power, with only 4% opposed. A similar survey in the US showed an even larger percentage in favour. The levels of support for onshore wind aren’t much lower, either in the US or the UK. We need to actively communicate these high levels of approval to our representatives and point out that fossil fuel use is far less politically popular.
• Buy gas and electricity from retailers who sell renewable power. This helps grow their businesses and improves their ability to provide cost-competitive fuels to us. Renewable natural gas is just coming on to the market in reasonable quantities in many countries and fossil-free electricity is widely available. Think about switching to a supplier that is working to provide 100% clean energy.
Chris’s 15 things you can do to help stop manmade climate change is published in full here.
Updated
at 12.06pm GMT
12.00pm GMT
12:00
HOUR FIVE: reasons to be (cautiously) cheerful
Mark Rice-Oxley
Have we really been going five hours? We’re just getting warmed up. No pun intended. If you’re waking up in America, stay tuned: our New York office will be taking over this running article in a couple of hours, with the focus switching to the inauguration tomorrow.
In the past hour, we’ve really only had time to skim the surface of some of the good things going on in this time zone:
the Afghan hero trying to reforest an entire province
the Israelis who turn salt water into drinkable stuff – and export the technology around the world
the Swedes building a carbon sink in Stockholm
Please do post your questions for our head of environment, Damian Carrington, to answer, or you can email him on damian.carrington@theguardian.com. He’ll be with us at 1pm GMT.
And here’s another fact for you:
Right then. We’ve not nearly finished with good news so we’re going to carry on past the hour with more inspiring people and technology, starting with the Egyptian farmer beating the drought with smart water-saving kit.
Updated
at 12.02pm GMT
11.55am GMT11.55am GMT
11:5511:55
David CrouchDavid Crouch
This month sees the launch in Stockholm of the world’s first urban carbon sink. The project will trap carbon from garden waste and store it in the ground, thereby compensating for the emissions of around 700 cars.This month sees the launch in Stockholm of the world’s first urban carbon sink. The project will trap carbon from garden waste and store it in the ground, thereby compensating for the emissions of around 700 cars.
The idea is based on turning wood and other organic waste into “biochar”, produced like charcoal by heating it in the absence of oxygen. The first firings will make use of thousands of discarded Christmas trees.The idea is based on turning wood and other organic waste into “biochar”, produced like charcoal by heating it in the absence of oxygen. The first firings will make use of thousands of discarded Christmas trees.
In the shadow of a large conventional power station in the southern suburbs, the new carbon sink will produce 300 tonnes of biochar a year, which will then be used to fertilise the city’s parks and green spaces. In turn, heat generated during the process will be used to heat local apartments.In the shadow of a large conventional power station in the southern suburbs, the new carbon sink will produce 300 tonnes of biochar a year, which will then be used to fertilise the city’s parks and green spaces. In turn, heat generated during the process will be used to heat local apartments.
Simon Rea, of of Bloomberg Philanthropies, which is sponsoring the project, told me:Simon Rea, of of Bloomberg Philanthropies, which is sponsoring the project, told me:
This is the world’s first urban carbon sink. We want other cities to be inspired by Stockholm and start their own biochar production.This is the world’s first urban carbon sink. We want other cities to be inspired by Stockholm and start their own biochar production.
Combatting “climate apathy” in this way is seen as an important aspect of the project, which wants to involve Stockholmers and make them feel that they themselves have a role to play in influencing the climate.Combatting “climate apathy” in this way is seen as an important aspect of the project, which wants to involve Stockholmers and make them feel that they themselves have a role to play in influencing the climate.
The project organisers say that three more cities and a US federal state have already shown an interest: Melbourne in Australia, Mysore in India, Parma in Italy, and the state of California.The project organisers say that three more cities and a US federal state have already shown an interest: Melbourne in Australia, Mysore in India, Parma in Italy, and the state of California.
Mattias Gustafsson of Stockholm Water, told me:Mattias Gustafsson of Stockholm Water, told me:
It is just the beginning. This natural carbon sink will not save the world but we must begin to pay off our carbon debts.It is just the beginning. This natural carbon sink will not save the world but we must begin to pay off our carbon debts.
Updated
at 12.08pm GMT
11.48am GMT11.48am GMT
11:4811:48
Peter BeaumontPeter Beaumont
Israel has long experience of dealing with some of the pressing demands of climate change.Israel has long experience of dealing with some of the pressing demands of climate change.
Inside the high pressure hall at the world’s largest water desalination plant on the Israeli coast near Rishon Lezion, a forest of pressure vessels is humming with the sound of sea water being made drinkable at the equivalent of 65 atmospheres.Inside the high pressure hall at the world’s largest water desalination plant on the Israeli coast near Rishon Lezion, a forest of pressure vessels is humming with the sound of sea water being made drinkable at the equivalent of 65 atmospheres.
The plant, completed just three years ago, is at the cutting edge of a desalination technology being exported around the world from China to India, to California and Australia, promising new sources of water in a warming world.The plant, completed just three years ago, is at the cutting edge of a desalination technology being exported around the world from China to India, to California and Australia, promising new sources of water in a warming world.
The success of the Sorek plant and others like it in Israel – built by Israel Desalination Engineering [IDE] – is a testament to recent leaps made in desalination technology.The success of the Sorek plant and others like it in Israel – built by Israel Desalination Engineering [IDE] – is a testament to recent leaps made in desalination technology.
One hundred years ago the British in Mandatory Palestine predicted that water would be an issue for a growing population, a challenge that has obsessed Israeli politicians over the decades.One hundred years ago the British in Mandatory Palestine predicted that water would be an issue for a growing population, a challenge that has obsessed Israeli politicians over the decades.
Today, Israel is a net exporter of water and its desalination plants provide almost 65% of the country’s potable and industrial water.Today, Israel is a net exporter of water and its desalination plants provide almost 65% of the country’s potable and industrial water.
Advances in reverse osmosis water purification technology have made it possible to build plants large and small, and increasingly environmentally friendly, allowing the production of drinkable water wherever there is access to the sea.Advances in reverse osmosis water purification technology have made it possible to build plants large and small, and increasingly environmentally friendly, allowing the production of drinkable water wherever there is access to the sea.
The process is fast and relatively cheap.The process is fast and relatively cheap.
In the space of the Guardian’s visit to the plant, sea water extracted from the Mediterranean was cleaned once by being passed through large filtration tanks, cleaned a second time, then filtered in the high pressure hall before having traces of boron removed in a cascade and then treated to soften the water and make it drinkable.In the space of the Guardian’s visit to the plant, sea water extracted from the Mediterranean was cleaned once by being passed through large filtration tanks, cleaned a second time, then filtered in the high pressure hall before having traces of boron removed in a cascade and then treated to soften the water and make it drinkable.
Udi Tirosh, of IDE, told me:Udi Tirosh, of IDE, told me:
There has long been an interest here in water recovery. Water shortages are a world issue. California has suffered six years of successive droughts. We are working on a new plant north of San Diego as well as a facility in Tienjiang south of Beijing in China which also has water shortage issues – a thermal extraction plant in this case. In India we are working on a plant for an industrial concern.There has long been an interest here in water recovery. Water shortages are a world issue. California has suffered six years of successive droughts. We are working on a new plant north of San Diego as well as a facility in Tienjiang south of Beijing in China which also has water shortage issues – a thermal extraction plant in this case. In India we are working on a plant for an industrial concern.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.50am GMTat 11.50am GMT
11.38am GMT11.38am GMT
11:3811:38
Emily WilsonEmily Wilson
Terry Macalister, formerly the Guardian’s energy editor and now on the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series steering committee, has just sent this blog post in to us:Terry Macalister, formerly the Guardian’s energy editor and now on the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series steering committee, has just sent this blog post in to us:
Terry writes:Terry writes:
Global carbon emissions could be cut by one third within 12 months if affluent westerners changed their way of life, according at least to one leading climate change scientist.Global carbon emissions could be cut by one third within 12 months if affluent westerners changed their way of life, according at least to one leading climate change scientist.
Kevin Anderson, professor of energy and climate change at the UK’s Manchester University, says a major reduction in personal air travel is a key starting point.Kevin Anderson, professor of energy and climate change at the UK’s Manchester University, says a major reduction in personal air travel is a key starting point.
More than half of the Co2 pollution which causes global warming comes from the 10% best-off people on the planet, he argues.More than half of the Co2 pollution which causes global warming comes from the 10% best-off people on the planet, he argues.
“Let’s be clear about this. If the top 10 high emitters – people like you and me and others – if we reduce our carbon footprint just to the level of the average European it would be a one-third cut in global emissions.“Let’s be clear about this. If the top 10 high emitters – people like you and me and others – if we reduce our carbon footprint just to the level of the average European it would be a one-third cut in global emissions.
“I genuinely think we could achieve it in one year but we would have to think that climate change is a very serious issue and that has big political implications.”“I genuinely think we could achieve it in one year but we would have to think that climate change is a very serious issue and that has big political implications.”
Anderson, who already avoids flying where he can, made his comments in the run up to a talk he will give on 9 March at Cambridge University.Anderson, who already avoids flying where he can, made his comments in the run up to a talk he will give on 9 March at Cambridge University.
This is part of a new town and gown initiative, the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series, designed to rekindle more debate on global warming.This is part of a new town and gown initiative, the Cambridge Climate Lecture Series, designed to rekindle more debate on global warming.
Anderson is convinced that wealthy westerners must act decisively and radically to change their lifestyles.Anderson is convinced that wealthy westerners must act decisively and radically to change their lifestyles.
“Those of us who are high emitters … need to rapidly curtail how often we fly. We should not be flying on any occasion business class or first class because that has far higher emissions. We need to find alternatives to flying.“Those of us who are high emitters … need to rapidly curtail how often we fly. We should not be flying on any occasion business class or first class because that has far higher emissions. We need to find alternatives to flying.
“But in addition, we need to make sure that we are not living in larger houses and have many houses, and drive larger cars.“But in addition, we need to make sure that we are not living in larger houses and have many houses, and drive larger cars.
“Our high incomes allow us to have status in society and typically have larger carbon footprints. It is a real challenge for us in that position because we have to significantly change in the short-term our lives and find other ways of seeing value for hard work.”“Our high incomes allow us to have status in society and typically have larger carbon footprints. It is a real challenge for us in that position because we have to significantly change in the short-term our lives and find other ways of seeing value for hard work.”
Anderson plans to use his talk to explain what kind of personal, societal and corporate changes need to be made in Britain to meet the UK government’s commitment under the Paris climate change agreement.Anderson plans to use his talk to explain what kind of personal, societal and corporate changes need to be made in Britain to meet the UK government’s commitment under the Paris climate change agreement.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.52am GMTat 11.52am GMT
11.30am GMT11.30am GMT
11:3011:30
Sune Engel RasmussenSune Engel Rasmussen
Afghanistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change – but some people are trying to make a difference.Afghanistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change – but some people are trying to make a difference.
An estimated 80% of Afghanistan’s natural resources have been destroyed over four decades of conflict, Ahmad Seyer, director of the Rural Green Environmental Organisation (RGEO) and one of the few Afghan charities working to mitigate the effects of climate change, has told me.An estimated 80% of Afghanistan’s natural resources have been destroyed over four decades of conflict, Ahmad Seyer, director of the Rural Green Environmental Organisation (RGEO) and one of the few Afghan charities working to mitigate the effects of climate change, has told me.
Seyer, a civil engineer by training, worked to protect the environment since the mid-1990s, during the Taliban regime, when he worked with international agencies. But it was not until three years ago that he really became aware of the problems associated with climate change. Since then, climate change has been an integral part of the environment awareness training his organisation provides to mosques and schools.Seyer, a civil engineer by training, worked to protect the environment since the mid-1990s, during the Taliban regime, when he worked with international agencies. But it was not until three years ago that he really became aware of the problems associated with climate change. Since then, climate change has been an integral part of the environment awareness training his organisation provides to mosques and schools.
In most villages where I go, they actually understand. Climate change is visible to them now. There is not enough snow, and not enough rain.In most villages where I go, they actually understand. Climate change is visible to them now. There is not enough snow, and not enough rain.
RGEO works across 90 villages in Badakhshan in Afghanistan’s remote northeast to protect biodiversity. Only three percent of Afghanistan’s surface is covered by forests. Loggers and people in need of wood to burn during winter threaten what is left.RGEO works across 90 villages in Badakhshan in Afghanistan’s remote northeast to protect biodiversity. Only three percent of Afghanistan’s surface is covered by forests. Loggers and people in need of wood to burn during winter threaten what is left.
RGEO has reforested 200,000 trees to help absorb greenhouse gases and provide protection for communities during flash floods, which hit Badakhshan almost every year. Last year, following a 6.6 magnitude earthquake, a flood destroyed over 800 homes in the province.RGEO has reforested 200,000 trees to help absorb greenhouse gases and provide protection for communities during flash floods, which hit Badakhshan almost every year. Last year, following a 6.6 magnitude earthquake, a flood destroyed over 800 homes in the province.
However, while a more sustainable environment would help boost livelihoods in the long term, for many families, economic concerns, compounded by war and unemployment, are more immediate.However, while a more sustainable environment would help boost livelihoods in the long term, for many families, economic concerns, compounded by war and unemployment, are more immediate.
Farmers have had to sell livestock to survive. Many migrate to Iran to work as day labourers, and some choose to join the insurgency, Seyer said.Farmers have had to sell livestock to survive. Many migrate to Iran to work as day labourers, and some choose to join the insurgency, Seyer said.
“Compared to previous years, people have become so poor,” he said.“Compared to previous years, people have become so poor,” he said.
In 2015, RGEO received the UN’s Equator Prize, which has helped boost funding for his organisation. It now runs on about $100,000 over the next couple of years, about half of which is provided by the United Nations Development Program.In 2015, RGEO received the UN’s Equator Prize, which has helped boost funding for his organisation. It now runs on about $100,000 over the next couple of years, about half of which is provided by the United Nations Development Program.
Faced with the task of convincing fellow Afghans, living in dire conditions, to care about the environment, Seyer said he was dismayed to see the incoming American president scoff at climate change.Faced with the task of convincing fellow Afghans, living in dire conditions, to care about the environment, Seyer said he was dismayed to see the incoming American president scoff at climate change.
“This is not a joke. Please fight against climate change,” he said, addressing Donald Trump. “NGOs can’t do this alone. Hundreds of people can’t do it; thousands of people can’t do it. Everybody needs to come together.”“This is not a joke. Please fight against climate change,” he said, addressing Donald Trump. “NGOs can’t do this alone. Hundreds of people can’t do it; thousands of people can’t do it. Everybody needs to come together.”
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.36am GMTat 11.36am GMT
11.22am GMT11.22am GMT
11:2211:22
Emily WilsonEmily Wilson
Back to more positive actions that individuals can take. For obvious reasons most of these tips (again from Chris Goodall) focus on what wealthier citizens (which includes most westerners) can do. Here are three:Back to more positive actions that individuals can take. For obvious reasons most of these tips (again from Chris Goodall) focus on what wealthier citizens (which includes most westerners) can do. Here are three:
• The CO2 impact of goods and services is often strikingly different from what you’d expect. Mike Berners-Lee’s book How Bad Are Bananas? takes an entertaining and well-informed look at what really matters. Bananas, for example, are fine because they are shipped by sea. But organic asparagus flown in from Peru is much more of a problem.• The CO2 impact of goods and services is often strikingly different from what you’d expect. Mike Berners-Lee’s book How Bad Are Bananas? takes an entertaining and well-informed look at what really matters. Bananas, for example, are fine because they are shipped by sea. But organic asparagus flown in from Peru is much more of a problem.
• Invest in your own sources of renewable energy. Putting solar panels on the roof still usually makes financial sense, even after most countries have ceased to subsidise installation. Or buy shares in new cooperatively owned wind, solar or hydroelectric plants that are looking for finance. The financial returns won’t be huge – perhaps 5% a year in the UK, for example – but the income is far better than leaving your money in a bank.• Invest in your own sources of renewable energy. Putting solar panels on the roof still usually makes financial sense, even after most countries have ceased to subsidise installation. Or buy shares in new cooperatively owned wind, solar or hydroelectric plants that are looking for finance. The financial returns won’t be huge – perhaps 5% a year in the UK, for example – but the income is far better than leaving your money in a bank.
• Buy from companies that support the switch to a low-carbon future. An increasing number of businesses are committed to 100% renewable energy. Unilever, the global consumer goods business, says its operations will be better than carbon-neutral by 2030. Those of us concerned about climate change should buy from businesses acting most aggressively to reduce their climate impact.• Buy from companies that support the switch to a low-carbon future. An increasing number of businesses are committed to 100% renewable energy. Unilever, the global consumer goods business, says its operations will be better than carbon-neutral by 2030. Those of us concerned about climate change should buy from businesses acting most aggressively to reduce their climate impact.
11.13am GMT11.13am GMT
11:1311:13
Emily WilsonEmily Wilson
Over the next hour we’re going to try to focus on the positive. We’ll look more at what we can all do as individuals, and at inspirational work both locally and internationally to combat manmade climate change.Over the next hour we’re going to try to focus on the positive. We’ll look more at what we can all do as individuals, and at inspirational work both locally and internationally to combat manmade climate change.
It’s really easy to feel despairing and overwhelmed about climate change. Personally I found this piece by Chris Goodall today to be both inspiring and cheering. He writes about how he used to believe that only massive government subsidies would make clean energy a success, which basically meant it would be a failure. Now he admits he was “completely wrong” about that, and argues that the end of the fossil-fuel era is already in sight:It’s really easy to feel despairing and overwhelmed about climate change. Personally I found this piece by Chris Goodall today to be both inspiring and cheering. He writes about how he used to believe that only massive government subsidies would make clean energy a success, which basically meant it would be a failure. Now he admits he was “completely wrong” about that, and argues that the end of the fossil-fuel era is already in sight:
In fact, optimism about successfully tackling climate change has never been more justified, because 2016 was the year in which it finally became obvious that the world had the technology to solve the problem. Even as the political environment has darkened, the reasons have strengthened for believing that a complete transition to low-carbon energy is practical and affordable within one generation.In fact, optimism about successfully tackling climate change has never been more justified, because 2016 was the year in which it finally became obvious that the world had the technology to solve the problem. Even as the political environment has darkened, the reasons have strengthened for believing that a complete transition to low-carbon energy is practical and affordable within one generation.
The full article is here.The full article is here.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.13am GMTat 11.13am GMT
11.09am GMT11.09am GMT
11:0911:09
HOUR FOUR: Europe, from peak to coast. Plus the climate change symphonyHOUR FOUR: Europe, from peak to coast. Plus the climate change symphony
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
So Europe might not be on the frontline of climate change but it’s already feeling the depradations of flooding, drought, and rising sea levels.So Europe might not be on the frontline of climate change but it’s already feeling the depradations of flooding, drought, and rising sea levels.
Over the past hour we’ve reported on:Over the past hour we’ve reported on:
•In Italy, questions as to whether climate change might transform wine making.•In Italy, questions as to whether climate change might transform wine making.
•Insurers reporting a sharp increase in weather-related payouts.•Insurers reporting a sharp increase in weather-related payouts.
•And we are still trying to draw climate change.•And we are still trying to draw climate change.
Finally, another fact for you:Finally, another fact for you:
Since you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQSince you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.25am GMTat 11.25am GMT
10.57am GMT10.57am GMT
10:5710:57
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
Of course, different parts of Europe face different challenges.Of course, different parts of Europe face different challenges.
In Spain, Sam Jones reports that some forecasters believe that southern Spain will be reduced to desert by 2100 if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked.In Spain, Sam Jones reports that some forecasters believe that southern Spain will be reduced to desert by 2100 if the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked.
Researchers looked at the consequences for vegetation in the Mediterranean basin under a variety of possible temperature rises. In the worst case scenario – which would see global temperatures rising by nearly 5C by the end of the century – deserts would expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and deciduous forests would be replaced by Mediterranean vegetation. Roughly a third of Spain would find itself as arid by then as the Tabernas desert in Almería is today.Researchers looked at the consequences for vegetation in the Mediterranean basin under a variety of possible temperature rises. In the worst case scenario – which would see global temperatures rising by nearly 5C by the end of the century – deserts would expand northwards across southern Spain and Sicily, and deciduous forests would be replaced by Mediterranean vegetation. Roughly a third of Spain would find itself as arid by then as the Tabernas desert in Almería is today.
As one ecologist has pointed out, a rise of nearly 5C would be “like bringing Casablanca to Madrid”.As one ecologist has pointed out, a rise of nearly 5C would be “like bringing Casablanca to Madrid”.
This warming has implications for the Alps too. The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner, says that in the Italian resort of Obereggen, sometimes it has not been cold enough to give the town much time to crank up its snow production.This warming has implications for the Alps too. The Guardian’s Stephanie Kirchgaessner, says that in the Italian resort of Obereggen, sometimes it has not been cold enough to give the town much time to crank up its snow production.
Resident Thomas Ondertoller told her:Resident Thomas Ondertoller told her:
Last year we had one week to make the snow. We use a lot of water, and a lot of technical expertise, to make as much snow as possible, because usually after that there is a warm period.Last year we had one week to make the snow. We use a lot of water, and a lot of technical expertise, to make as much snow as possible, because usually after that there is a warm period.
For the passionate skier, the product is perfect. For the romantic skier, something is missing,” he says.For the passionate skier, the product is perfect. For the romantic skier, something is missing,” he says.
Further north, it is the sea, not the snow that is the problem, Jennifer Rankin reports from Belgium.Further north, it is the sea, not the snow that is the problem, Jennifer Rankin reports from Belgium.
Authorities in Flanders, guardians of Belgium’s 73km strip of coastline, are spending €8m (£6.9m) to investigate whether they can build an island to keep the rising tide at bay. The newest bit of Belgium would be off the coast of Knokke, the genteel resort best known for its picturesque dunes and posh golf course. Under an early plan, the island would be 40 hectares big, but could be made 10 times larger over time.Authorities in Flanders, guardians of Belgium’s 73km strip of coastline, are spending €8m (£6.9m) to investigate whether they can build an island to keep the rising tide at bay. The newest bit of Belgium would be off the coast of Knokke, the genteel resort best known for its picturesque dunes and posh golf course. Under an early plan, the island would be 40 hectares big, but could be made 10 times larger over time.
Across the border, the Dutch have built the world’s biggest storm barrier, near Rotterdam. The Maeslant barrier – two enormous steel gates almost as long as the Eiffel tower – is designed to protect the port city and the rest of southern Holland from a once in a 10,000-year storm.Across the border, the Dutch have built the world’s biggest storm barrier, near Rotterdam. The Maeslant barrier – two enormous steel gates almost as long as the Eiffel tower – is designed to protect the port city and the rest of southern Holland from a once in a 10,000-year storm.
Peter Persoon, an engineer-turned-tour guide, said:Peter Persoon, an engineer-turned-tour guide, said:
What we tell the people here in the Netherlands is, if the country is flooded the damage will be at least €700bn.What we tell the people here in the Netherlands is, if the country is flooded the damage will be at least €700bn.
If you instead spend every year one billion euros, you spread the bill over 700 years. That is, I think, the Dutch way.”If you instead spend every year one billion euros, you spread the bill over 700 years. That is, I think, the Dutch way.”
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.02am GMTat 11.02am GMT
10.55am GMT10.55am GMT
10:5510:55
Stephanie KirchgaessnerStephanie Kirchgaessner
For years, the biggest problem facing vineyard owners in Tuscany’s Chianti region has been the prevalence of scavaging wild boars in the area, a relatively modern phenomenon in the ancient winemaking region.For years, the biggest problem facing vineyard owners in Tuscany’s Chianti region has been the prevalence of scavaging wild boars in the area, a relatively modern phenomenon in the ancient winemaking region.
But the threat of climate change could soon eclipse the havoc that has been wrought by the swine, according to a local climatologist who said changes in temperature are already having an effect on wine production in Italy.But the threat of climate change could soon eclipse the havoc that has been wrought by the swine, according to a local climatologist who said changes in temperature are already having an effect on wine production in Italy.
Giampiero Maracchi, a professor at the University of Florence and expert in sustainability and agriculture, says rising temperatures have already increased the amount of sugar in wines from the north to the south of Italy, though the change might not yet be noticeable.Giampiero Maracchi, a professor at the University of Florence and expert in sustainability and agriculture, says rising temperatures have already increased the amount of sugar in wines from the north to the south of Italy, though the change might not yet be noticeable.
“For the time being, there has been no real negative effect on quality. For the future, it is yet to be seen,” he said.“For the time being, there has been no real negative effect on quality. For the future, it is yet to be seen,” he said.
There has been another change related to climate that is sure to have a bigger impact: harvests in Chianti are now happening earlier than in the past. The harvest period used to be around 1 October, he said, but now it is happening between 1-15 September, often because of heatwaves. These are occurring with greater frequency and intensity in the summer months, leading to a faster maturation of the grapes.There has been another change related to climate that is sure to have a bigger impact: harvests in Chianti are now happening earlier than in the past. The harvest period used to be around 1 October, he said, but now it is happening between 1-15 September, often because of heatwaves. These are occurring with greater frequency and intensity in the summer months, leading to a faster maturation of the grapes.
It means that in the future, in a decade to three decades from now, grapes in the Chianti region may require irrigation, which is not required now.It means that in the future, in a decade to three decades from now, grapes in the Chianti region may require irrigation, which is not required now.
“If we look to the models, with the projected increases in temperature, there will be a water shortage and probably in the future – 10 or 20 or 30 years – we should require some irrigation for grapes. It means we should have some reservoirs of water,” he said.“If we look to the models, with the projected increases in temperature, there will be a water shortage and probably in the future – 10 or 20 or 30 years – we should require some irrigation for grapes. It means we should have some reservoirs of water,” he said.
Maracchi said the issue is not necessarily at the top of farmers’ minds, though it should be.Maracchi said the issue is not necessarily at the top of farmers’ minds, though it should be.
“You know, up until the time comes that they can see some effect from the economic point of view, they are not concerned,” he said. “They should be, in my opinion, because climate change is a general problem and we [will] have a lot of trouble.”“You know, up until the time comes that they can see some effect from the economic point of view, they are not concerned,” he said. “They should be, in my opinion, because climate change is a general problem and we [will] have a lot of trouble.”
It is not just an Italian phenomenon. In its 2016 global wine output estimate, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine last year said it expected global wine production to drop by about 5% due to “climatic events”, causing steep drops in production in Chile and Argentina.It is not just an Italian phenomenon. In its 2016 global wine output estimate, the International Organisation of Vine and Wine last year said it expected global wine production to drop by about 5% due to “climatic events”, causing steep drops in production in Chile and Argentina.
While the group did not point a finger of blame at climate change specifically, it suggested that global warming, coupled with natural climate variability, were causing a profound change in the wine business, and had made 2016 one of the worst wine production periods in the past two decades.While the group did not point a finger of blame at climate change specifically, it suggested that global warming, coupled with natural climate variability, were causing a profound change in the wine business, and had made 2016 one of the worst wine production periods in the past two decades.
10.41am GMT10.41am GMT
10:4110:41
Jennifer RankinJennifer Rankin
The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect.The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect.
Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded.Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded.
Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia.Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia.
Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep.Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep.
This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian:This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian:
Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration.Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration.
He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes.He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes.
Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict.Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict.
British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else.British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else.
This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing.This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing.
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at 10.42am GMTat 10.42am GMT
10.29am GMT10.29am GMT
10:2910:29
Emily WilsonEmily Wilson
The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today.The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today.
It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him:It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him:
There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy.There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy.
You can read the full leader here.You can read the full leader here.
10.21am GMT10.21am GMT
10:2110:21
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ...More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ...
But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here.But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here.
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at 10.34am GMTat 10.34am GMT
10.20am GMT10.20am GMT
10:2010:20
Arthur NeslenArthur Neslen
If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit.If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit.
And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent.And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent.
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980.Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980.
Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world.Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world.
Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me:Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me:
In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980.In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980.
Here’s the full article.Here’s the full article.
10.06am GMT10.06am GMT
10:0610:06
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times.Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times.
The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:
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at 10.18am GMTat 10.18am GMT