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| Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live | Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.54pm GMT | |
| 21:54 | |
| Jonathan Watts | |
| More from Paulo Barret, head of Imazon, the world’s leading monitor of the Amazon rainforest. | |
| It has been argued that indigenous reserves have the best protected forest. Is that true from what you have observed? | |
| Indigenous lands and many Conservation Units (such as National Parks and National Forest) are the best protected areas. The indigenous peoples that are more protective are the ones that maintained their ancient livelihoods practices, which are dependent on healthy environment such as hunting, fishing and small scale agriculture. By being present in the areas, they also prevent timber extraction by loggers. Unfortunately, Congress wants to amend the constitution to make it harder to acknowledge land rights for indigenous people. Yesterday, the Ministry of Justice announced that it would review all demarcations of this type by Funai (The National Indian Foundation), which will further politicise the process. | |
| What more could be done in Brazil? | |
| INPE, the National Space Agency, uses satellite images to report the annual rate of deforestation and also to produce monthly alerts on hotspots of deforestation. Data from the latter - which is named DETER - is provided to the federal environmental agency to guide field inspections. Overall, the system works well, but in the past three years the government stopped publishing DETER’s data to the general public. The new Environment Minister has promised to resume monthly publication. | |
| The government should also resume the policies that had been effective including improving enforcement, implement and increase the area of Conservation Units. Additionally, government and private sector should work more on incentives for conservation, especially for small landholders. Finally, government should collect the land tax that would curb speculative deforestation and land grabbing. | |
| Looking 20 years into the future, what are the best and worst case scenarios for the Amazon? | |
| The best scenario would combine the implementation of policies that have been effective with new ones, such as incentives for conservation, with the aim of keeping the existing forest. But it is also necessary to invest in restoration given that Brazil has an estimated 28 million hectares of legal forest deficit in the whole country – about half of that in the Amazon. However, Brazil has promised to reforest only 12 million hectares up to 2030 as part of the Paris Climate Agreement. | |
| The worst scenario would be the continuation of weak government and a private sector that fails to understand the importance of forest conservation to sustainable development and fails to execute their stated commitment to zero deforestation. In that case, deforestation and forest fires would continue and we could lose 30% by 2050. That would take the forest to turning point, after which it could lose the capacity to regenerate due a combination of drier climate and frequent forest fires. | |
| Personally, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the prospects for the Amazon? | |
| I am very concerned because of the financial and political crises in Brazil that are likely to last for several years. To offset this, the private sector and the international community should increase their support for forest conservation. For example, large corporations that committed to zero-deforestation should work closely with Brazilian authorities and landholders to curb deforestation. | |
| 9.48pm GMT | |
| 21:48 | |
| Jonathan Watts | |
| The Amazon contains half the world’s remaining rainforest, with an estimated 390bn trees doing the work of storing carbon and regulating the climate. Deforestation is removing those natural air filters. | |
| Early this century, an area the size of Albania was being cleared every year. Since then, the good news is that Brazil, which contains 60% of the Amazon, has taken action to slow deforestation. But pressures on the forest are growing again. I asked Paulo Barreto, the head of Imazon, the leading independent Amazon monitoring organisation, to give me an update on the situation. | |
| Your organisation uses satellite data to measure deforestation. What do the recent results tell us? | |
| The rate of deforestation decreased nearly 80% from 2005 to 2012. But from 2012 to 2016, deforestation rates increased 75% going from 4,571 to 7,989 square kilometres. | |
| Can you explain why progress has faltered? | |
| Deforestation rates increased because after 2012 Congress and the government weakened the environmental laws by pardoning some of the illegal deforestation, reduced Conservation Units, built large infrastructure project without proper environmental licensing procedures and decreased the enforcement of environmental law. | |
| An interactive map by Global Forest Watch tracks the change in forest cover since 2001. It is impressively grim. The pink (decline) areas are far more prominent than the blue (increase) areas. What does this mean for the climate? | |
| This means that the Amazon is a large contributor to climate change by emitting greenhouse gases when the forest is burned. In fact, deforestation is responsible for about half of the Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions. | |
| Which areas have the most rapid deforestation ? | |
| Cattle ranching accounts for 65% of the deforested areas in the Amazon. Deforestation is facilitated by large infrastructure projects, which facilitated transport and attract immigration. In the past five years, this has happened near Belo Monte dam in Altamira and along the BR-163 highway in eastern Pará State and near Porto Velho, Rondônia State, where two dams have been built. | |
| On a more positive note, which areas are seeing reforestation ? | |
| Most reforestation has been by natural regeneration of forests in abandoned pasturelands. Usually, these lands are in areas with poor potential for land use intensification such as riparian areas or zones with high rainfall. | |
| 9.41pm GMT | |
| 21:41 | |
| Throughout his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to “save” coal mining, holding rallies where he mimed shoveling and accused Barack Obama of doing “everything he can to kill the coal industry”. Surrounded by advisers who oppose climate regulations, Trump will soon be able to hack through the rules put in place by Obama to curtail pollution. Saving coal, however, is likely out of beyond his powers. | |
| The free market, far more than regulations, has done the work of killing coal. Despite Trump’s insistence that the US is struggling for energy, the natural gas industry has created a supply glut so significant it has cut deeply into the economies of entire nations, Saudi Arabia and Russia among them. | |
| Coal couldn’t compete. Cheaper and cleaner than coal, though – not renewable or green – natural gas operations mushroomed all over the US over the last decade, so much so that they started creating earthquakes and short-lived boomtowns. Trump’s proposals would open up the US for even more gas exploration. | |
| Coal only accounts for about 30% of US electricity, down from about 50% in 2008, and its decline traces back several decades. The industry has lost about 200,000 jobs since 1980 as machines replaced humans in the mines, and as those mines delved into deeper, more expensive and dangerous mountains. Exports peaked in 2012, alongside the high points of growth in China, which has its own coal supplies and has now turned toward cleaner energy. Investment banks have also continued to back away from the industry as renewable technology has become cheaper. | |
| 9.36pm GMT | |
| 21:36 | |
| Ucilia Wang | |
| Clean energy is a hot topic for the political and business bigwigs who gather in Davos for the World Economic Forum this week. The forum has added more sessions on the subject (along with climate change) than ever before. | |
| That’s not surprising, given that solar and wind energy no longer represents mostly a badge of environmental activism. We are seeing an increasing number of companies, including Google, Apple and Ikea, that sign contracts to buy renewable electricity or even build their own solar and wind farms. That’s because the prices for these once-expensive sources of energy have dived since 2009, with 63% drop for solar contracts in the US over the past five years. | |
| Renewable energy investments, which also include geothermal and biomass, increased from $40.1bn in 2015 to $42.7bn in 2016 in the US, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. | |
| Solar being cheaper than coal? This was once unthinkable. Now, it’s already happening in some corners of the world and could spread to just about everywhere by 2025. | |
| 9.29pm GMT | |
| 21:29 | |
| Mark Oliver | |
| Ashifa Kassam, the Guardian’s Canada correspondent this week sent us this dispatch from Lennox Island, off the coast of Prince Edward Island in eastern Canada. On Lennox, she wrote, the island has lost 400 acres in just a few generations and the First Nations community is wondering if it has a future. | |
| Kassam reports that over the past three decades, Danny Tuplin has watched the island’s shoreline inch closer to his two-storey house. Only a few years ago, his home sat 10ft from the water. Then in 2004, a hurricane-strength nor’easter blizzard brought the ocean to his doorstep.“I went out the back door, I took five steps and I was in salt water,” said the 58-year-old. | |
| Touching on similar issues, we have a comment piece by Julian Brave NoiseCat, an enrolled member of the Canim Lake Band Tsq’escen in British Columbia, who says the cornerstone of the climate justice movement must be indigenous rights and sovereignty. | |
| Earlier today we published this piece by Brave NoiesCat in which he writes: | |
| “Many believe the fight to combat climate change hinges on the aligned interests of capital and state. Give the Elon Musks of the world enough time and resources and they will innovate us out of impending climate catastrophe. Get the G20 in a room and they will hammer out a deal and create regulations to enforce it. Or so the thinking in some circles goes. Yet throughout history, the interests of the state have slid into alignment with big oil and big profits rather than lining up with our rivers, our air, our wildlife and our people. | |
| On Friday, men who disavow climate change and profit mightily from fossil fuels will take charge. In a global race to the bottom, there’s no telling how far downriver these shortsighted profiteers will sell our future generations. | |
| Elsewhere on our Comment site today, commissioned for our climate blog, we have a piece by Osprey Orielle Lake, who is marching against Trump on Saturday and argues there is a link between violence against women and the Earth. | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.36pm GMT | |
| 9.22pm GMT | |
| 21:22 | |
| At the largest gathering of earth scientists in the world last month, a few lawyers had set up a booth stacked with small books for any researcher who would take it: legal advice for how to protect yourself from political persecution. “We’re worried about a lot of things,” said Lauren Kurtz, executive director of the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, adding that some scientists had received legal and even death threats. | |
| “We have people in power who’ve used legal bullying in the past,” she added, alluding to Trump’s history of using expensive lawsuits, or at least the threat of them, to attempt to silence critics. “That sort of legal bullying is going to be seen as much easier to do.” | |
| A handful of scientists have already been targeted for their week. Dr Michael Mann, currently a professor at Penn State, was sucked into a long-running legal suit when a rightwing activist group sued the University of Virginia, his former employer, to access tens of thousands of his emails. Scientists at the University of Arizona are currently enmeshed in a similar fight, and last year representative Lamar Smith, a Texas Republican, tried to subpoena scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Their argument is basically if you get the emails you’ll get the full meat of research, whereas it’s actually a way for them to take words out of context.” | |
| Barack Obama’s White House defended the climate scientists’ research; scientists now fear that the Trump administration will leave them at the mercy of lawmakers and activists with an interest in silencing scientists. In 2014 a court decided in Mann’s favor, agreeing with him that turning over research emails chilled research; discouraged collaboration; and put scientists at a competitive disadvantage. The Arizona case remains unresolved after a victory by a group funded by several energy companies. | |
| Scientists have also come to the legal group with fears for their professional future. They could be barred from grants or lose funding and effectively iced out of their own jobs, Kurtz said. “We worry about government suppression, where scientists can’t do the same research, can’t use the words climate change, modify reports to make it seem like it’s not as drastic as it is.” | |
| In turn, she said, the team of attorneys has started to research whistleblower cases, “if and when a scientist comes to us for those sorts of quandaries. A couple have stopped by to say, ‘Hey, I am employed by DOE another one by USGS. I was going to retire and now I’m not going to, because I feel like there’s a need for me to be on the front lines and fight back.’” | |
| Much of the data from federal agencies is already public, and some scientists have already begun “guerrilla archiving” to back up the climate data on non-government servers. “Who knows what will happen with the Trump administration,” Kurtz said. “They may do all sorts of back-door things. I don’t think the Trump administration is going to be super pro transparency.” | |
| Scientists: Do you have a US .gov climate database that you don't want to see disappear?Add it here:https://t.co/IEN8OUc4TrPlease share | |
| Updated | |
| at 9.40pm GMT | |
| 9.17pm GMT | 9.17pm GMT |
| 21:17 | 21:17 |
| Lauren Gambino | Lauren Gambino |
| After Donald Trump was elected in November, the mayors of more than 60 US cities sent an open letter to the president-elect urging him to work with them on combating climate change. Trump’s team has yet to respond to the letter, said Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti, a co-founder of the Mayor’s National Climate Action Agenda. | After Donald Trump was elected in November, the mayors of more than 60 US cities sent an open letter to the president-elect urging him to work with them on combating climate change. Trump’s team has yet to respond to the letter, said Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti, a co-founder of the Mayor’s National Climate Action Agenda. |
| Garcetti, who is in DC for the US Conference of mayors, said he is encouraged by the conversations he’s had this week. | Garcetti, who is in DC for the US Conference of mayors, said he is encouraged by the conversations he’s had this week. |
| “Even a change of administration cannot take away our determination and our ability to continue our progress,” Garcetti said. “Through different administrations and different congresses, most of the action has happened at the local level.” | “Even a change of administration cannot take away our determination and our ability to continue our progress,” Garcetti said. “Through different administrations and different congresses, most of the action has happened at the local level.” |
| Garcetti said he spoke to the president-elect from the C40 Climate Summit in Mexico City last month. Though he wouldn’t elaborate on details of the conversation, Garcetti described Trump as “open-minded” on the call. | Garcetti said he spoke to the president-elect from the C40 Climate Summit in Mexico City last month. Though he wouldn’t elaborate on details of the conversation, Garcetti described Trump as “open-minded” on the call. |
| Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said he’s hopeful the Trump administration will respond to the economic case for fighting climate change. | Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said he’s hopeful the Trump administration will respond to the economic case for fighting climate change. |
| “This issue goes a lot deeper than Democrats and Republicans,” Walsh said. “This goes into healthcare. … These issues all of sudden are starting to become economic issues.” | “This issue goes a lot deeper than Democrats and Republicans,” Walsh said. “This goes into healthcare. … These issues all of sudden are starting to become economic issues.” |
| Extreme storms, wildfires and droughts, sea level rising and storm surges and air pollution are not just concerns for the mayors of big, liberal cities, Garcetti and Walsh stressed. | Extreme storms, wildfires and droughts, sea level rising and storm surges and air pollution are not just concerns for the mayors of big, liberal cities, Garcetti and Walsh stressed. |
| Climate change is “not an ideological issue but an urgent one for us, that transcends partisanship with undeniable science and more importantly undeniable human impacts”. | Climate change is “not an ideological issue but an urgent one for us, that transcends partisanship with undeniable science and more importantly undeniable human impacts”. |
| 9.11pm GMT | 9.11pm GMT |
| 21:11 | 21:11 |
| Amanda Holpuch | Amanda Holpuch |
| As climate change causes parts of the earth to grow hotter and drier, it has also led to a recent surge in extremely destructive wildfires. | As climate change causes parts of the earth to grow hotter and drier, it has also led to a recent surge in extremely destructive wildfires. |
| It is difficult to link specific events, like the devastating wildfires in Tennessee’s Great Smoky Mountains last year, directly to climate change, but scientists found that a drier and warmer planet can increase the likelihood of wildfires. | It is difficult to link specific events, like the devastating wildfires in Tennessee’s Great Smoky Mountains last year, directly to climate change, but scientists found that a drier and warmer planet can increase the likelihood of wildfires. |
| “If you get conditions that are ripe for a wildfire across multiple places and at multiple times then wildfires will actually happen,” said Auroop Ganguly, an expert on climate extremes and water sustainability in Northeastern University’s department of civil and environmental engineering. | |
| But even as regions become more susceptible to wildfires, there still has to be a trigger, like arson, to start the blaze. | But even as regions become more susceptible to wildfires, there still has to be a trigger, like arson, to start the blaze. |
| Ganguly compared this to a person’s general health: if someone’s all-around health is bad, he explained, that person is more susceptible to other illnesses. That person will also have a more difficult time fighting back against a sickness. Similarly, hotter and drier parts of the globe are more susceptible to wildfires and have a more difficult time responding to it. | Ganguly compared this to a person’s general health: if someone’s all-around health is bad, he explained, that person is more susceptible to other illnesses. That person will also have a more difficult time fighting back against a sickness. Similarly, hotter and drier parts of the globe are more susceptible to wildfires and have a more difficult time responding to it. |
| And scientists say the planet could become more vulnerable to wildfires. | And scientists say the planet could become more vulnerable to wildfires. |
| Fire season was longer for more than a quarter of the Earth’s surface from 1973 to 2013, according to a July 2015 study published in Nature. The study also found that climatic changes are expected to increase fire season severity in the coming decades. | Fire season was longer for more than a quarter of the Earth’s surface from 1973 to 2013, according to a July 2015 study published in Nature. The study also found that climatic changes are expected to increase fire season severity in the coming decades. |
| Updated | |
| at 9.21pm GMT | |
| 9.05pm GMT | 9.05pm GMT |
| 21:05 | 21:05 |
| So far, Donald Trump has said extremely little about how he would lead Nasa, whose administrator reports directly to the president, or the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, whose officials report to the secretary of commerce. Late in the campaign, Trump said he hoped to “free Nasa” from its logistics work in low-Earth orbit (which Nasa does little of) and instead “refocus its mission on space exploration”. | So far, Donald Trump has said extremely little about how he would lead Nasa, whose administrator reports directly to the president, or the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, whose officials report to the secretary of commerce. Late in the campaign, Trump said he hoped to “free Nasa” from its logistics work in low-Earth orbit (which Nasa does little of) and instead “refocus its mission on space exploration”. |
| “Did you ever see what’s going on with space, with Russia and different places? And us? We’re, like, we’re like watching. Isn’t that nice? So much is learned from that, too.” | “Did you ever see what’s going on with space, with Russia and different places? And us? We’re, like, we’re like watching. Isn’t that nice? So much is learned from that, too.” |
| The main suggestion of Trump’s speech, alongside his repeated denial and skepticism toward the science of global warming, is that he intends to cut Nasa’s Earth science work. Bob Walker, an adviser to the president-elect, has pushed the idea of cutting all of Nasa’s climate research in favor of deep space exploration. Climate scientists have warned this would prove a savage blow to research efforts. | The main suggestion of Trump’s speech, alongside his repeated denial and skepticism toward the science of global warming, is that he intends to cut Nasa’s Earth science work. Bob Walker, an adviser to the president-elect, has pushed the idea of cutting all of Nasa’s climate research in favor of deep space exploration. Climate scientists have warned this would prove a savage blow to research efforts. |
| Trump’s nominee for secretary of commerce is billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, who has not commented at all about how he would lead Noaa, protect US fisheries or guide climate science. Ross made his fortune, in part, by rehabilitating steel and coal companies. Trump has not said who he would name Noaa’s administrator; Obama’s first pick for the post was marine ecologist Jane Lubchenco. The current administrator of Nasa, former astronaut Charles Bolden, is expected to follow tradition for appointees when a new president takes the White House, and submit his resignation shortly after Trump is inaugurated. | Trump’s nominee for secretary of commerce is billionaire investor Wilbur Ross, who has not commented at all about how he would lead Noaa, protect US fisheries or guide climate science. Ross made his fortune, in part, by rehabilitating steel and coal companies. Trump has not said who he would name Noaa’s administrator; Obama’s first pick for the post was marine ecologist Jane Lubchenco. The current administrator of Nasa, former astronaut Charles Bolden, is expected to follow tradition for appointees when a new president takes the White House, and submit his resignation shortly after Trump is inaugurated. |
| Though Nasa has generally enjoyed bipartisan support in Congress, it has a $2bn Earth science program that many scientists fear will suffer greatly under a Republican government stocked with many climate change skeptics and deniers. The space agency’s planetary science programs may go untouched, but scientists also fear that funding will stagnate as Congress enacts new tax cuts and grapples with how to reconcile those with hugely expensive efforts to repeal healthcare reform and spend on infrastructure. | Though Nasa has generally enjoyed bipartisan support in Congress, it has a $2bn Earth science program that many scientists fear will suffer greatly under a Republican government stocked with many climate change skeptics and deniers. The space agency’s planetary science programs may go untouched, but scientists also fear that funding will stagnate as Congress enacts new tax cuts and grapples with how to reconcile those with hugely expensive efforts to repeal healthcare reform and spend on infrastructure. |
| Thomas Zurbuchen, Nasa’s new associate administrator told reporters last month that he stands by the priorities and data he prepared for the incoming administration. “The principles we drew out are the principles that we would use in any administration,” he said, adding that he urged scientists to “focus on the data that we get and not amplify the noise.” | Thomas Zurbuchen, Nasa’s new associate administrator told reporters last month that he stands by the priorities and data he prepared for the incoming administration. “The principles we drew out are the principles that we would use in any administration,” he said, adding that he urged scientists to “focus on the data that we get and not amplify the noise.” |
| “Behave like scientists, and talk like scientists, passionately,” he continued. “Talk about science in away we know that’s affecting life on earth.” | “Behave like scientists, and talk like scientists, passionately,” he continued. “Talk about science in away we know that’s affecting life on earth.” |
| Updated | |
| at 9.23pm GMT | |
| 9.00pm GMT | 9.00pm GMT |
| 21:00 | 21:00 |
| HOUR 14: climate change cuisine | HOUR 14: climate change cuisine |
| As Ucilia Wang and Jonathan Watts reported earlier, climate change will affect just about every detail of daiy life, from your morning coffee to chocolate to a glass of wine. Later on we’ll hear how this increasing aridity is going to affect your meal – breakfast, lunch, dinner and dessert. | As Ucilia Wang and Jonathan Watts reported earlier, climate change will affect just about every detail of daiy life, from your morning coffee to chocolate to a glass of wine. Later on we’ll hear how this increasing aridity is going to affect your meal – breakfast, lunch, dinner and dessert. |
| We’re also going to hear about the steps climate scientists can take to defend themselves in the age of Trump | We’re also going to hear about the steps climate scientists can take to defend themselves in the age of Trump |
| Fifteen things you can do to make a difference | Fifteen things you can do to make a difference |
| Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms | Adam Gabbatt on New York’s rooftop solar farms |
| George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’ | George Monbiot: ‘Commentators seek glimpses of light in Trump’s position. There are none’ |
| The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China | The world’s biggest solar farm springs up – in China |
| The ever-popular climate quiz | The ever-popular climate quiz |
| And the climate clock, still ticking away | And the climate clock, still ticking away |
| Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: global warming is not a concept created by the Chinese #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/kIKvPg0Ugn | Fact checking @realDonaldTrump: global warming is not a concept created by the Chinese #GlobalWarning https://t.co/3n8F5fS2EE pic.twitter.com/kIKvPg0Ugn |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.16pm GMT | at 9.16pm GMT |
| 8.54pm GMT | 8.54pm GMT |
| 20:54 | 20:54 |
| Ucilia Wang | Ucilia Wang |
| Renewable energy has long been considered a liberal cause championed by tree huggers on the ground and Democrats in governments. That political divide showed up in election campaign contributions historically as well. But during the 2016 election cycle, the solar and wind trade groups gave more money to Republicans than Democrats running for federal offices for the first time, reported Reuters. | Renewable energy has long been considered a liberal cause championed by tree huggers on the ground and Democrats in governments. That political divide showed up in election campaign contributions historically as well. But during the 2016 election cycle, the solar and wind trade groups gave more money to Republicans than Democrats running for federal offices for the first time, reported Reuters. |
| Their bets may pay off as they face a new administration with a new president who thinks solar and wind are expensive and sees wind turbines as bird killers that also ruin views of his golf courses. | Their bets may pay off as they face a new administration with a new president who thinks solar and wind are expensive and sees wind turbines as bird killers that also ruin views of his golf courses. |
| Roughly $400,000 from wind and solar political action committees (Pac) went to dozens of federal election candidates. Among the Republicans are Senator Dean Heller of Nevada, Representative Tom Reed of New York and Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, who together received more than 40% of the federal campaign contributions from the Solar Energy Industries Association Pac. | |
| That shift in money politics reflects the reality that many red states are home to large solar and wind farms. Take a look at the top 10 states with the most solar energy generation and you will find Arizona, North Carolina and Texas on the list. The top wind energy states include Texas, Oklahoma and Iowa. | That shift in money politics reflects the reality that many red states are home to large solar and wind farms. Take a look at the top 10 states with the most solar energy generation and you will find Arizona, North Carolina and Texas on the list. The top wind energy states include Texas, Oklahoma and Iowa. |
| Lobbying across political lines also makes sense because the country’s energy market is made up of more than 3,000 utilities and regulated mostly by states. Local politicians, regardless of their party affiliation, are particularly keen to support businesses that bring jobs and tax revenues. | Lobbying across political lines also makes sense because the country’s energy market is made up of more than 3,000 utilities and regulated mostly by states. Local politicians, regardless of their party affiliation, are particularly keen to support businesses that bring jobs and tax revenues. |
| Updated | |
| at 9.22pm GMT | |
| 8.48pm GMT | 8.48pm GMT |
| 20:48 | 20:48 |
| Encroaching into homes and dinner tables, rich and poor alike, climate change plays no favorites – it will take your chocolate. | Encroaching into homes and dinner tables, rich and poor alike, climate change plays no favorites – it will take your chocolate. |
| Cacao trees grow in rainforest climates that will only become drier in the next few decades, depriving the plants of the large amounts of water they need to grow. Research collated by Noaa and the IPCC suggests that climate change will force the best land for growing chocolate into higher altitudes, creating a slew of conflicts for farmers and industries, especially in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, where a huge amount of the world’s cacao is grown. Over the last 40 years, the world’s available land for cocoa growth has declined 40%; the temperature in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire is expected to rise two degrees Celsius over the next 40. | Cacao trees grow in rainforest climates that will only become drier in the next few decades, depriving the plants of the large amounts of water they need to grow. Research collated by Noaa and the IPCC suggests that climate change will force the best land for growing chocolate into higher altitudes, creating a slew of conflicts for farmers and industries, especially in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, where a huge amount of the world’s cacao is grown. Over the last 40 years, the world’s available land for cocoa growth has declined 40%; the temperature in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire is expected to rise two degrees Celsius over the next 40. |
| Growers in some regions are trying to breed drought-resistant plants to survive the worsening conditions, while others are replanting sections of rainforest to mimic cacao’s natural habitats, in a method called cabruca in Brazil. Coffee will fare even worse than cacao, suffering from the increasing heat as well as the aridity, and beer production, reliant on a large amount of water for processing hops, has already been affected at dozens of breweries. | Growers in some regions are trying to breed drought-resistant plants to survive the worsening conditions, while others are replanting sections of rainforest to mimic cacao’s natural habitats, in a method called cabruca in Brazil. Coffee will fare even worse than cacao, suffering from the increasing heat as well as the aridity, and beer production, reliant on a large amount of water for processing hops, has already been affected at dozens of breweries. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.18pm GMT | at 9.18pm GMT |
| 8.35pm GMT | 8.35pm GMT |
| 20:35 | 20:35 |
| Ucilia Wang | Ucilia Wang |
| Climate change has already encroached into grocery stores and restaurant menus, as it kills crops and makes it harder to keep fruit, vegetables and livestock alive. Global warming is also draining our drinks, including one of the oldest human libations: wine. | Climate change has already encroached into grocery stores and restaurant menus, as it kills crops and makes it harder to keep fruit, vegetables and livestock alive. Global warming is also draining our drinks, including one of the oldest human libations: wine. |
| A warming climate will affect the quality and yield of the grapes, with mixed results around the world. Rising temperatures could help growers in some regions, for instance helping France in particular grow premium grapes. | A warming climate will affect the quality and yield of the grapes, with mixed results around the world. Rising temperatures could help growers in some regions, for instance helping France in particular grow premium grapes. |
| But the same can’t be said for California, the biggest wine producing state in the country. Rising temperatures, coupled with persistent drought and the likelihood of more extreme hot and wet days ahead, are gradually making the state less habitable for its notable varietals, including chardonnay and cabernet. | But the same can’t be said for California, the biggest wine producing state in the country. Rising temperatures, coupled with persistent drought and the likelihood of more extreme hot and wet days ahead, are gradually making the state less habitable for its notable varietals, including chardonnay and cabernet. |
| Grape growers have been taking note of the effect of global warming. How they deal with it will influence the role the US is the global wine industry, where the country is among the top five wine grape growing and wine-producing nations. | Grape growers have been taking note of the effect of global warming. How they deal with it will influence the role the US is the global wine industry, where the country is among the top five wine grape growing and wine-producing nations. |
| Some vintners are using technology to help them cope. For example, they are using sensors and drones to monitor soil quality and planting more cover crops to retain moisture in the ground. They are turning to owls and falcons to fight the growing army of pests such as mice and voles. They are also recycling the precious water more, in some cases relying on giant bins of earthworms to do the job. | Some vintners are using technology to help them cope. For example, they are using sensors and drones to monitor soil quality and planting more cover crops to retain moisture in the ground. They are turning to owls and falcons to fight the growing army of pests such as mice and voles. They are also recycling the precious water more, in some cases relying on giant bins of earthworms to do the job. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.18pm GMT | at 9.18pm GMT |
| 8.24pm GMT | 8.24pm GMT |
| 20:24 | 20:24 |
| Kevin Rawlinson | Kevin Rawlinson |
| In London, the live panel debate is underway off at Guardian headquarters. A room full of members, readers and activists joins the actor and entrepreneur, Lily Cole, the author and academic, Dr Jonathan Rowson, and the Green party’s science and technology spokesperson, Esther Obiri-Darko. Also on the panel are the chief executive of Friends of the Earth, Craig Bennett and the “renegade economist” Kate Raworth. | In London, the live panel debate is underway off at Guardian headquarters. A room full of members, readers and activists joins the actor and entrepreneur, Lily Cole, the author and academic, Dr Jonathan Rowson, and the Green party’s science and technology spokesperson, Esther Obiri-Darko. Also on the panel are the chief executive of Friends of the Earth, Craig Bennett and the “renegade economist” Kate Raworth. |
| Opening the debate, the panel members discussed how to be about the political and economic change necessary to protect the environment. Cole told the audience that the most effective option for individuals was to vote with their wallets. | Opening the debate, the panel members discussed how to be about the political and economic change necessary to protect the environment. Cole told the audience that the most effective option for individuals was to vote with their wallets. |
| One of the main areas I’ve focused on is how I spend my money. I’m not perfect with it, I’m as guilty as most westerners of buying too much... But, because the world is so driven by economics and so driven by money right now, the only way you’re going to communicate to businesses is by starving their bottom line. | One of the main areas I’ve focused on is how I spend my money. I’m not perfect with it, I’m as guilty as most westerners of buying too much... But, because the world is so driven by economics and so driven by money right now, the only way you’re going to communicate to businesses is by starving their bottom line. |
| Obiri-Darko added that such a change needed a combination of “people power” and government accountability; saying that one or the other alone would not bring it about. She said that, where she knocks on doors in south west London, air pollution was a major concern and only when climate change began to affect people would they start to demand action from their elected officials. | Obiri-Darko added that such a change needed a combination of “people power” and government accountability; saying that one or the other alone would not bring it about. She said that, where she knocks on doors in south west London, air pollution was a major concern and only when climate change began to affect people would they start to demand action from their elected officials. |
| Raworth cited Donald Trump’s presidential election campaign as an example of what she characterised as an obsession with growth at the expense of other issues, such as the protection of the environment. | Raworth cited Donald Trump’s presidential election campaign as an example of what she characterised as an obsession with growth at the expense of other issues, such as the protection of the environment. |
| Raworth agreed that Trump has an “old-fashioned economic mindset” and his election was unlikely to be helpful to those who sought to fight climate change. But he said, looking at the bigger picture, the election of a US president - possibly only for four years - should not been seen as a catastrophic event, adding that Trump can be influenced because of the extent to which he cares about his esteem. | Raworth agreed that Trump has an “old-fashioned economic mindset” and his election was unlikely to be helpful to those who sought to fight climate change. But he said, looking at the bigger picture, the election of a US president - possibly only for four years - should not been seen as a catastrophic event, adding that Trump can be influenced because of the extent to which he cares about his esteem. |
| Bennett agreed that there was cause for optimism, arguing that movements have never brought about major societal changes unopposed. | Bennett agreed that there was cause for optimism, arguing that movements have never brought about major societal changes unopposed. |
| It was only when the campaigns to abolish slavery were doing really well that the pro-slavery movement formed. They said ‘this will harm my competitiveness, we can’t possibly afford this, it’s going to cost jobs’. Almost identical arguments to those used now by people campaigning against action on climate change. | It was only when the campaigns to abolish slavery were doing really well that the pro-slavery movement formed. They said ‘this will harm my competitiveness, we can’t possibly afford this, it’s going to cost jobs’. Almost identical arguments to those used now by people campaigning against action on climate change. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.02pm GMT | at 9.02pm GMT |
| 8.13pm GMT | 8.13pm GMT |
| 20:13 | 20:13 |
| Jonathan Watts | Jonathan Watts |
| The cup of coffee that millions of us woke up with this morning was more likely to have come from Brazil than another nation. But this ritual will become rarer and more expensive, according to forecasts that climate change will cut the bean-growing belt by half here and across the world over the next 35 years. | The cup of coffee that millions of us woke up with this morning was more likely to have come from Brazil than another nation. But this ritual will become rarer and more expensive, according to forecasts that climate change will cut the bean-growing belt by half here and across the world over the next 35 years. |
| Drought and rising average temperatures are already a growing worry for farmers such as Maria Assunção da Silva, whose family has grown coffee in Minas Gerais since the 19th century. | Drought and rising average temperatures are already a growing worry for farmers such as Maria Assunção da Silva, whose family has grown coffee in Minas Gerais since the 19th century. |
| The business has rarely been tougher than in the past four years. In 2013, the drought was so severe the beans formed as empty husks. Since then, he says, the weather has been destructively unpredictable. It has been dry in the usual rainy season, which results in smaller beans. In the usual dry season, it rains, which makes it difficult to process the harvest. | The business has rarely been tougher than in the past four years. In 2013, the drought was so severe the beans formed as empty husks. Since then, he says, the weather has been destructively unpredictable. It has been dry in the usual rainy season, which results in smaller beans. In the usual dry season, it rains, which makes it difficult to process the harvest. |
| “What we have been seeing in these past years has been hindering our production,” Silva says. | “What we have been seeing in these past years has been hindering our production,” Silva says. |
| Others have fared worse. In Espirito Santo recently, the worst drought in 80 years forced farmers to dig up thousands of arid robusta coffee trees and switch to alternative crops. Warehouses in the region were down to a quarter of their capacity. Exports of conilon, a variety of robusta, fell 90%. With prospects poor for this year, many warehouses are expected to close. | Others have fared worse. In Espirito Santo recently, the worst drought in 80 years forced farmers to dig up thousands of arid robusta coffee trees and switch to alternative crops. Warehouses in the region were down to a quarter of their capacity. Exports of conilon, a variety of robusta, fell 90%. With prospects poor for this year, many warehouses are expected to close. |
| Growers say the weather is becoming more erratic and extreme. São Paulo’s coffee producers suffered dire water shortages in 2015, but when the rains finally came, it was often in intense downpours that led to flood damage. While the main temperature trend is of warming, some crops were hit by frost in freakish cold spells last winter - in the middle of the hottest year ever recorded in the world. “What is certain is that the weather is more unstable and unpredictable,” noted agronomy engineer and coffee farmer, Pedro Ronca. | Growers say the weather is becoming more erratic and extreme. São Paulo’s coffee producers suffered dire water shortages in 2015, but when the rains finally came, it was often in intense downpours that led to flood damage. While the main temperature trend is of warming, some crops were hit by frost in freakish cold spells last winter - in the middle of the hottest year ever recorded in the world. “What is certain is that the weather is more unstable and unpredictable,” noted agronomy engineer and coffee farmer, Pedro Ronca. |
| Overall, improved production techniques and well-timed rains for the main arabica crop ensured a good national harvest and a stabilisation of prices. But scientists and environmental groups warn the situation will become more difficult in the years ahead in Brazil and other coffee-producing nations. | Overall, improved production techniques and well-timed rains for the main arabica crop ensured a good national harvest and a stabilisation of prices. But scientists and environmental groups warn the situation will become more difficult in the years ahead in Brazil and other coffee-producing nations. |
| “Increasing temperatures and extreme weather events will cut the area (in the world) suitable for production by up to 50%, erode coffee quality, and increase coffee prices for consumers,” predicted a Climate Institute study last year. | “Increasing temperatures and extreme weather events will cut the area (in the world) suitable for production by up to 50%, erode coffee quality, and increase coffee prices for consumers,” predicted a Climate Institute study last year. |
| Earlier research by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, suggested none of the current coffee producing regions in Brazil would have the ideal conditions (average temperatures of 18-22C, ample rain and no frost) by 2080. “Once full climate change effects are experienced, Brazil may face challenges to remain a major coffee producing country,” the authors noted. | Earlier research by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, suggested none of the current coffee producing regions in Brazil would have the ideal conditions (average temperatures of 18-22C, ample rain and no frost) by 2080. “Once full climate change effects are experienced, Brazil may face challenges to remain a major coffee producing country,” the authors noted. |
| This grim scenario is far from inevitable. As well as global efforts to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change, Brazilian officials, scientists and farmers are moving to adapt. | This grim scenario is far from inevitable. As well as global efforts to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change, Brazilian officials, scientists and farmers are moving to adapt. |
| Eduardo Assad, of the government’s agriculture research institute Embrapa, believes there is considerable potential to move coffee production to the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Currently that is not feasible due to frost, but this risk will decline if temperatures rise by 2C. | Eduardo Assad, of the government’s agriculture research institute Embrapa, believes there is considerable potential to move coffee production to the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Currently that is not feasible due to frost, but this risk will decline if temperatures rise by 2C. |
| Even so, this would require huge disruption to Brazil’s agriculture, particularly to coffee farmers who usually require 15 to 20 years for a return on their investment. For now, most would rather stay put and use technology and chemicals to cope with rising climate challenges. | Even so, this would require huge disruption to Brazil’s agriculture, particularly to coffee farmers who usually require 15 to 20 years for a return on their investment. For now, most would rather stay put and use technology and chemicals to cope with rising climate challenges. |
| Silva is investing in a coffee drier because he cannot depend on the sun, more anti-fungicide chemicals because the risks from unseasonal rain have increased, and to counter the rising temperatures he is planting new heat-resistant varieties of coffee and insulating the soil with straw. | Silva is investing in a coffee drier because he cannot depend on the sun, more anti-fungicide chemicals because the risks from unseasonal rain have increased, and to counter the rising temperatures he is planting new heat-resistant varieties of coffee and insulating the soil with straw. |
| “We don’t think the weather conditions will improve, so we are trying to adapt to the new climate variation,” he says. | “We don’t think the weather conditions will improve, so we are trying to adapt to the new climate variation,” he says. |
| Such measures push up his costs and the global value of beans, but, if the forecasts are correct, it is only the start of the rise in price that we will all pay for our morning cup of coffee | Such measures push up his costs and the global value of beans, but, if the forecasts are correct, it is only the start of the rise in price that we will all pay for our morning cup of coffee |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.27pm GMT | at 8.27pm GMT |