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Global warning: live from the climate-change frontline as Trump becomes president Global warning: live from the climate-change frontline as Trump becomes president
(35 minutes later)
10.41am GMT
10:41
Jennifer Rankin
The other issue that looms for Europe is that of climate refugees. War and persecution have forced more people to flee their homes than at any time since records began. But droughts, flooding and storms are also having a catastrophic effect.
Almost 60 million people around the world fled their homes in 2014 due to conflict, according to the UN agency for refugees. In the same year, 19.3 million were forced to move because of natural disasters, a study by the Norwegian Refugee Council concluded.
Only a small number came to Europe. The majority fleeing conflict in the Middle East and Africa go to neighbouring countries or regions; most victims of extreme weather live in Asia.
Nevertheless, European Union policymakers, struggling to cope with large numbers of recently-arrived migrants, are aware that climate refugees could be on their doorstep.
This week the EU commissioner for humanitarian aid, Christos Stylianides, told the Guardian:
Europe is also surrounded by regions that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change and we can definitely not afford to ignore the links between climate change and migration.
He is careful about drawing links between climate change and migration, saying that climate change can multiply instability, conflict and state fragility, prompting people to leave their homes.
Statistics are difficult to pin down, partly because of the role environmental degradation plays in fuelling conflict. Scientists have said a devastating drought in Syria between 2006-2010 – and the weak response of Bashar al-Assad’s government – was a contributory factor to the ongoing conflict.
British economist, Nicholas Stern, has estimated that up to 200 million people could be displaced by climate change by 2050. But not all will end up in safer places. People leaving desertified villages can move to towns lying on a flood-plain. Some will not afford to be able to move: natural disasters that impoverish communities make it harder for people to start again somewhere else.
This means climate change is also likely to put more pressure on the EU’s humanitarian aid budget, worth €1.27bn (£1.1bn) in 2014. Stylianides says the EU is spending more on reducing the risk of disasters. But only 13% of EU aid is spent on prevention, while the demand for urgent humanitarian help is growing.
Updated
at 10.42am GMT
10.29am GMT
10:29
Emily Wilson
The Guardian has published a leader article on Trump and climate change today.
It makes the point that while Trump may be able to wreak a lot of damage on the climate front, it’s not all going to be up to him:
There’s no doubt the world will lose out if America decides to relinquish global leadership on battling climate change. But Mr Trump’s fossil fuel plans are likely to flounder without higher hydrocarbon prices. No one will frack for gas unless profits can be made. Coal mines won’t reopen while shale gas is cheap. Instead, self-interest will undergird the fight against global warming. China will decarbonise to ensure its citizens don’t choke to death in its cities. The costs of clean energy are tumbling too, keeping nations on the path towards decarbonisation. The price of electric vehicles is dropping; offshore wind power has become dramatically cheaper. For the first time, the costs of wind and solar power have dropped to match those of fossil fuels. Last year was the first in which renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s biggest source of power-generating capacity. Countries such as India have ambitious plans for renewable energy.
You can read the full leader here.
10.21am GMT
10:21
Mark Rice-Oxley
More on Europe in a minute, including Belgian flood defences, poor snow at ski resorts (boo hoo) and the grave threat to Chianti ...
But first something completely different. We’re going over to Facebook live to watch people draw climate change. You may laugh. This might not work. You may get a better view of what’s going on by going here.
Updated
at 10.34am GMT
10.20am GMT
10:20
Arthur Neslen
If global warming has a canary in the mine, perhaps it’s the insurance industry. After all, they are the people who have to pay out when extreme weather events hit.
And in Europe, they’ve been paying out more and more in recent years, as an extraordinary succession of flooding and storms sweep the continent.
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, have shown me data indicating that the number of devastating floods requiring big payouts has more than doubled since 1980. The firm’s latest data shows there were 30 flood events requiring insurance payouts in Europe last year – up from just 12 in 1980.
Globally, 2016 saw 384 flood disasters, compared with 58 in 1980, although the greater proportional increase probably reflects poorer flood protections and lower building standards in the developing world.
Munich Re’s Ernst Rauch told me:
In Europe, we’ve seen a steep increase in flood events related to severe convective [thunder] storms. The frequency of flash floods has increased much more than river floods since 1980.
Here’s the full article.
10.06am GMT10.06am GMT
10:0610:06
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year ever, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times. Now then, something a bit different. Yesterday, the world’s leading temperature authorities announced that yes, 2016 was the hottest year on record, and that the world was on average 1.1C warmer than in pre-industrial times.
The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:The idea of rising temperatures can be hard to visualise. So why not sit back and listen to it instead:
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.13am GMT at 10.18am GMT
10.04am GMT10.04am GMT
10:0410:04
HOUR THREE: the UK, flooding – and the carbon countdown clockHOUR THREE: the UK, flooding – and the carbon countdown clock
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
So the UK is by no means immune to climate change, and in the next hour, we’ll discover that that goes for Europe too.So the UK is by no means immune to climate change, and in the next hour, we’ll discover that that goes for Europe too.
Do keep your comments coming – there’s a really vibrant debate going on below the line. If you would prefer a Spanish version, have a look at what our partners Univision are doing here. And if you fancy contributing something more artistic or visual, then Tumblr is the place to go.Do keep your comments coming – there’s a really vibrant debate going on below the line. If you would prefer a Spanish version, have a look at what our partners Univision are doing here. And if you fancy contributing something more artistic or visual, then Tumblr is the place to go.
Finally, our fact of the hour, on the hour, every hour. Well, five minutes late – sorry about that.Finally, our fact of the hour, on the hour, every hour. Well, five minutes late – sorry about that.
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.05am GMTat 10.05am GMT
9.57am GMT9.57am GMT
09:5709:57
Severin CarrellSeverin Carrell
The UK’s attempts to cut its CO2 emissions are in real danger of being undermined unless ministers tackle the continuing erosion of peatlands, which store several billion tonnes of carbon, Scottish environment campaigners have warned.The UK’s attempts to cut its CO2 emissions are in real danger of being undermined unless ministers tackle the continuing erosion of peatlands, which store several billion tonnes of carbon, Scottish environment campaigners have warned.
Recent studies estimate that damaged peatlands – most frequently found in upland areas, already release about 16m tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year through erosion, burning for grouse shooting and overgrazing. Scientists expect that to worsen dramatically as rising temperatures dry out peatland in rain-starved areas, and extreme weather events increase, without concerted effort to protect and conserve them. That in turn will increase flash flooding of lowland towns and villages.Recent studies estimate that damaged peatlands – most frequently found in upland areas, already release about 16m tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year through erosion, burning for grouse shooting and overgrazing. Scientists expect that to worsen dramatically as rising temperatures dry out peatland in rain-starved areas, and extreme weather events increase, without concerted effort to protect and conserve them. That in turn will increase flash flooding of lowland towns and villages.
Scientists estimate that Scottish peatlands, which cover about a quarter of Scotland’s landmass, lock up about 1.7 gigatonnes of CO2.Scientists estimate that Scottish peatlands, which cover about a quarter of Scotland’s landmass, lock up about 1.7 gigatonnes of CO2.
Jonny Hughes, chief executive of the Scottish Wildlife Trust and chair of the UK’s International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) peatlands project said:Jonny Hughes, chief executive of the Scottish Wildlife Trust and chair of the UK’s International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) peatlands project said:
Peatlands are just not in good enough health to withstand the effects of climate change in the coming decades.Peatlands are just not in good enough health to withstand the effects of climate change in the coming decades.
Watching peatland landscapes washed away due to climate change sounds like a dystopian nightmare. Yet climate modelling predicts it to be a very real threat, leading to the loss of millions of tonnes of carbon and the destruction of an entire living ecosystem.”Watching peatland landscapes washed away due to climate change sounds like a dystopian nightmare. Yet climate modelling predicts it to be a very real threat, leading to the loss of millions of tonnes of carbon and the destruction of an entire living ecosystem.”
Updated
at 10.22am GMT
9.52am GMT9.52am GMT
09:5209:52
Emily WilsonEmily Wilson
Here are three more tips on individual action you can take to help, courtesy of Chris Goodall:Here are three more tips on individual action you can take to help, courtesy of Chris Goodall:
LEDs (light-emitting diodes) have become cheap and effective. If you have any energy-guzzling halogen lights in your house – many people have them in kitchens and bathrooms – it makes good financial and carbon sense to replace as many as possible with their LED equivalents. They should last at least 10 years, meaning you avoid the hassle of buying new halogen bulbs every few months. Not only will your CO2 footprint fall, but because LEDs are so efficient, you will also help reduce the need for national grids to turn on the most expensive and polluting power stations at peak demand times on winter evenings.LEDs (light-emitting diodes) have become cheap and effective. If you have any energy-guzzling halogen lights in your house – many people have them in kitchens and bathrooms – it makes good financial and carbon sense to replace as many as possible with their LED equivalents. They should last at least 10 years, meaning you avoid the hassle of buying new halogen bulbs every few months. Not only will your CO2 footprint fall, but because LEDs are so efficient, you will also help reduce the need for national grids to turn on the most expensive and polluting power stations at peak demand times on winter evenings.
Frequent use of a tumble dryer will add to your energy bill to an extent that may surprise you. But when buying a new appliance, don’t assume you will benefit financially from buying the one with the lowest level of energy consumption. There’s often a surprising premium to really efficient fridges or washing machines.Frequent use of a tumble dryer will add to your energy bill to an extent that may surprise you. But when buying a new appliance, don’t assume you will benefit financially from buying the one with the lowest level of energy consumption. There’s often a surprising premium to really efficient fridges or washing machines.
Consume less. Simply buying less stuff is a good route to lower emissions. A new woollen man’s suit may have a carbon impact equivalent to your home’s electricity use for a month. A single T-shirt may have caused emissions equal to two or three days’ typical power consumption. Buying fewer and better things has an important role to play.Consume less. Simply buying less stuff is a good route to lower emissions. A new woollen man’s suit may have a carbon impact equivalent to your home’s electricity use for a month. A single T-shirt may have caused emissions equal to two or three days’ typical power consumption. Buying fewer and better things has an important role to play.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.54am GMTat 9.54am GMT
9.49am GMT9.49am GMT
09:4909:49
Damian CarringtonDamian Carrington
Turning our attention to the UK, climate change is already affecting parts of Britain, principally by increasing the risk of extreme flooding and heatwaves, and on Wednesday the government accepted almost all of the current and future risks set out by its official advisors, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).Turning our attention to the UK, climate change is already affecting parts of Britain, principally by increasing the risk of extreme flooding and heatwaves, and on Wednesday the government accepted almost all of the current and future risks set out by its official advisors, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
The CCC’s report, published in July, concluded the UK was poorly prepared for global warming and set out six priority risk areas. The first two were rated as high risk now, with more action needed.The CCC’s report, published in July, concluded the UK was poorly prepared for global warming and set out six priority risk areas. The first two were rated as high risk now, with more action needed.
Flooding already causes £1bn of damage every year on average but the risks will rise yet further as climate change leads to more intense rainfall, bringing floods to places not currently in danger. The number of households at significant risk of flooding will more than double to 1.9m by 2050, if the global temperature rises by 4C.Flooding already causes £1bn of damage every year on average but the risks will rise yet further as climate change leads to more intense rainfall, bringing floods to places not currently in danger. The number of households at significant risk of flooding will more than double to 1.9m by 2050, if the global temperature rises by 4C.
The deadly heatwave of 2003, which peaked at 38.5C in the UK, will be a normal summer by the 2040s, leading to heat-related deaths more than tripling. There are currently no policies to ensure homes, schools, hospitals and offices remain tolerable in high heat.The deadly heatwave of 2003, which peaked at 38.5C in the UK, will be a normal summer by the 2040s, leading to heat-related deaths more than tripling. There are currently no policies to ensure homes, schools, hospitals and offices remain tolerable in high heat.
Severe water shortages are expected as summers get drier and, by the 2050s, will extend across the UK. If temperatures are driven up significantly, many places in the UK will have a demand for water 2.5 times greater than that available.Severe water shortages are expected as summers get drier and, by the 2050s, will extend across the UK. If temperatures are driven up significantly, many places in the UK will have a demand for water 2.5 times greater than that available.
Climate change is likely to drive food prices up, with extreme weather leading to lost crops and price shocks. About 40% of UK food is imported, making the UK vulnerable to droughts and floods driven by climate change around the world.Climate change is likely to drive food prices up, with extreme weather leading to lost crops and price shocks. About 40% of UK food is imported, making the UK vulnerable to droughts and floods driven by climate change around the world.
The proportion of prime farmland is expected to fall from 38% to 9% with significant warming, and crop growing in eastern England and Scotland could be ended by degraded soil and water shortages. Warming seas are pushing key species northwards, which may affect the entire marine food chain.The proportion of prime farmland is expected to fall from 38% to 9% with significant warming, and crop growing in eastern England and Scotland could be ended by degraded soil and water shortages. Warming seas are pushing key species northwards, which may affect the entire marine food chain.
New dangers may invade the UK as the climate gets warmer and requires urgent research. “The impacts are potentially high for otherwise healthy people, animals and plants,” the report states. “Higher temperatures will lead to an increased risk of the Asian tiger mosquito, the vector of Chikungunya virus, dengue fever and Zika virus. The current risk remains low, but may increase in the future.”New dangers may invade the UK as the climate gets warmer and requires urgent research. “The impacts are potentially high for otherwise healthy people, animals and plants,” the report states. “Higher temperatures will lead to an increased risk of the Asian tiger mosquito, the vector of Chikungunya virus, dengue fever and Zika virus. The current risk remains low, but may increase in the future.”
The CCC also warned that climate-stoked wars and migration around the world could have very significant consequences for the UK, through disrupted trade and more military intervention overseas.The CCC also warned that climate-stoked wars and migration around the world could have very significant consequences for the UK, through disrupted trade and more military intervention overseas.
On Wednesday, environment minister Lord Gardiner saidOn Wednesday, environment minister Lord Gardiner said
Our changing climate is one of the most serious environmental challenges that we face as a nation and that is why we are taking action, from improving flood defences across the country to securing our critical food and water supplies.Our changing climate is one of the most serious environmental challenges that we face as a nation and that is why we are taking action, from improving flood defences across the country to securing our critical food and water supplies.
Professor Hugh Montgomery, at University College London added:Professor Hugh Montgomery, at University College London added:
Acting on climate change can also boost people’s health. If we get it right, our efforts to tackle climate change avoid some of these risks, and directly benefit health: renewable power doesn’t generate health-damaging pollutants, for example, while walking or cycling improves health.”Acting on climate change can also boost people’s health. If we get it right, our efforts to tackle climate change avoid some of these risks, and directly benefit health: renewable power doesn’t generate health-damaging pollutants, for example, while walking or cycling improves health.”
And with that in mind, here come some more tips:And with that in mind, here come some more tips:
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.50am GMTat 9.50am GMT
9.35am GMT9.35am GMT
09:3509:35
James WalshJames Walsh
We’ve had some great comments below the line this morning. If you have any questions for our head of environment, Damian Carrington, please post them there. We’ll hold an answer session at 1pm.We’ve had some great comments below the line this morning. If you have any questions for our head of environment, Damian Carrington, please post them there. We’ll hold an answer session at 1pm.
Herewith some intriguing comments.Herewith some intriguing comments.
Stefana Broadbent wonders about a “spiral of silence” caused by people fearing to speak out:Stefana Broadbent wonders about a “spiral of silence” caused by people fearing to speak out:
Thank you for this front page rolling update. The importance of your constant reminder of the topic is really crucial. In a recent series of studies we saw that people rarely talk about climate change at home or with friends even though they are extremely worried about it. https://medium.com/if-you-want-to/silence-about-climate-change-doesnt-mean-behaviours-aren-t-changing-56b1cbdbf440#.rs589m3my. This "spiral of silence" is brought about by the feeling that people around us don't share the concern and it could be embarrassing to raise the issue. Your articles therefore not only inform but reassure many of us that the topic is important and we are not alone in our concern. Interestingly we also found that people are silently changing their habits much more than they publicly discuss. This at least is encouraging.Thank you for this front page rolling update. The importance of your constant reminder of the topic is really crucial. In a recent series of studies we saw that people rarely talk about climate change at home or with friends even though they are extremely worried about it. https://medium.com/if-you-want-to/silence-about-climate-change-doesnt-mean-behaviours-aren-t-changing-56b1cbdbf440#.rs589m3my. This "spiral of silence" is brought about by the feeling that people around us don't share the concern and it could be embarrassing to raise the issue. Your articles therefore not only inform but reassure many of us that the topic is important and we are not alone in our concern. Interestingly we also found that people are silently changing their habits much more than they publicly discuss. This at least is encouraging.
Another Guardian commenter discusses the importance of finding common ground, regardless of wider political stances:Another Guardian commenter discusses the importance of finding common ground, regardless of wider political stances:
Thanks Guardian for putting climate change so prominently centre stage for this troubling regime change.Thanks Guardian for putting climate change so prominently centre stage for this troubling regime change.
I've been banging on in comment for a while now, that while this transition is extremely depressing there is also are also valuable opportunities.I've been banging on in comment for a while now, that while this transition is extremely depressing there is also are also valuable opportunities.
First , Rex Tillerson is an advocate of revenue neutral carbon taxation. This is exactly the kind of policy that many climate activists have been pressing for while without getting any traction with mainstream politicians.First , Rex Tillerson is an advocate of revenue neutral carbon taxation. This is exactly the kind of policy that many climate activists have been pressing for while without getting any traction with mainstream politicians.
It's an attractive policy because it fits all political persuasions including the ideology of the kind of folks that have just voted for Trump. Lets face it , we weren't doing enough anyway, this kind of radical tax overhaul to reflect the external costs of fossil fuels is the only way forward.It's an attractive policy because it fits all political persuasions including the ideology of the kind of folks that have just voted for Trump. Lets face it , we weren't doing enough anyway, this kind of radical tax overhaul to reflect the external costs of fossil fuels is the only way forward.
Let's exploit this apparent common ground with a key member of this incoming administration and hold him to his own words.Let's exploit this apparent common ground with a key member of this incoming administration and hold him to his own words.
And this commenter wonders about personal responsibility.And this commenter wonders about personal responsibility.
I haven't flown anywhere for some years for personal or financial reasons. My last trip was to Paris on Eurostar. Most people fly because its cheaper. I would travel everywhere by train if fares were more reasonable. My partner is Norwegian and we did the trip there on the ferry from Newcastle but it no longer runs and he can fly cheaper to Oslo than we can travel from Yorkshire to London. I know several people who have relatives In Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They have to fly. Maybe if alternatives were as cheap as flying we could cut down short haul significantly.I haven't eaten meat since 1979. I don't miss it. Many people I know have cut down on meat but more for health reasons.My problem is my house built in 1916. Its been a financial struggle to maintain let alone insulate it or put in double glazing which seems very poor in the UK. People I know who have it are always complaining that it fails and often needs fixing. I have no cavity walls. I have thick or insulated curtains in most rooms and I don't have heating all day. In the winter I often sit in bed if I'm reading or on the laptop to keep warm. I don't actually like central heating. It bungs up my nose and makes my eyes dry.I haven't flown anywhere for some years for personal or financial reasons. My last trip was to Paris on Eurostar. Most people fly because its cheaper. I would travel everywhere by train if fares were more reasonable. My partner is Norwegian and we did the trip there on the ferry from Newcastle but it no longer runs and he can fly cheaper to Oslo than we can travel from Yorkshire to London. I know several people who have relatives In Australia, New Zealand and Canada. They have to fly. Maybe if alternatives were as cheap as flying we could cut down short haul significantly.I haven't eaten meat since 1979. I don't miss it. Many people I know have cut down on meat but more for health reasons.My problem is my house built in 1916. Its been a financial struggle to maintain let alone insulate it or put in double glazing which seems very poor in the UK. People I know who have it are always complaining that it fails and often needs fixing. I have no cavity walls. I have thick or insulated curtains in most rooms and I don't have heating all day. In the winter I often sit in bed if I'm reading or on the laptop to keep warm. I don't actually like central heating. It bungs up my nose and makes my eyes dry.
And finally LordInsect asked for a graphic on carbon emissions. I’m happy to say we have two:And finally LordInsect asked for a graphic on carbon emissions. I’m happy to say we have two:
And this:And this:
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.43am GMTat 9.43am GMT
9.18am GMT9.18am GMT
09:1809:18
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
Before we move on to Europe and the UK, this is a neat piece of work from my colleague Nick Evershed, the Guardian’s head of data and interactives in Australia. It shows how much carbon we are emitting right now – and how much we have “left to burn” if we want to keep global warming within the 2C band considered crucial by scientists to prevent serious damage to the planet.Before we move on to Europe and the UK, this is a neat piece of work from my colleague Nick Evershed, the Guardian’s head of data and interactives in Australia. It shows how much carbon we are emitting right now – and how much we have “left to burn” if we want to keep global warming within the 2C band considered crucial by scientists to prevent serious damage to the planet.
Nick’s calculated that in just the 24 hour lifespan of this blog, the world will pump out more than 112m tons. Hard to visualise? Well let’s let the doomsday clock do the work:Nick’s calculated that in just the 24 hour lifespan of this blog, the world will pump out more than 112m tons. Hard to visualise? Well let’s let the doomsday clock do the work:
9.08am GMT9.08am GMT
09:0809:08
HOUR TWO: Africa – droughts, ice melt and rising tidesHOUR TWO: Africa – droughts, ice melt and rising tides
Mark Rice-OxleyMark Rice-Oxley
So in summary, we’ve been focussed on Africa over the past hour:So in summary, we’ve been focussed on Africa over the past hour:
rising sea levels in Alexandriarising sea levels in Alexandria
disappearing glaciers in Mt Kenyadisappearing glaciers in Mt Kenya
an insurgency partially caused by climate change in west Africaan insurgency partially caused by climate change in west Africa
and hungry people in the southand hungry people in the south
And here’s another fact for our post-truth world:And here’s another fact for our post-truth world:
Since you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQSince you’re here, we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever – but far fewer are paying for it, and advertising revenues are falling fast. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. The Guardian’s journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe that independent reporting and plurality of voices matter. If everyone who reads our reporting helps to pay for it, our future would be much more secure. Support us with a monthly payment or a one-off contribution. - Guardian HQ
9.01am GMT9.01am GMT
09:0109:01
Jason BurkeJason Burke
In South Africa meanwhile, an interesting distinction: while you might find plenty of climate change denial in western countries or oil powers, or even in the White House (from tomorrow), it’s not a common feature of local conversation here.In South Africa meanwhile, an interesting distinction: while you might find plenty of climate change denial in western countries or oil powers, or even in the White House (from tomorrow), it’s not a common feature of local conversation here.
Melissa Fourie, executive director of the Centre for Environmental Rights, told me:Melissa Fourie, executive director of the Centre for Environmental Rights, told me:
In South Africa, there has been very little of the climate denialist narrative you still see in the US and elsewhere. The South African government has been vocal in its commitment to the fight against climate change for many years, and there is a genuine popular understanding of the problem and consequences of climate change.In South Africa, there has been very little of the climate denialist narrative you still see in the US and elsewhere. The South African government has been vocal in its commitment to the fight against climate change for many years, and there is a genuine popular understanding of the problem and consequences of climate change.
One reason for that is that ordinary people can already see the effects of climate change very clearly. The devastating drought that has plagued South Africa for the past two years, with ruinous knock-on effects on the rural economy and food prices, is a very real and tangible reminder of our vulnerability to climate change. We really are at the coalface of climate change, so to speak.One reason for that is that ordinary people can already see the effects of climate change very clearly. The devastating drought that has plagued South Africa for the past two years, with ruinous knock-on effects on the rural economy and food prices, is a very real and tangible reminder of our vulnerability to climate change. We really are at the coalface of climate change, so to speak.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.01am GMTat 9.01am GMT
8.54am GMT8.54am GMT
08:5408:54
Jason BurkeJason Burke
I’ve been talking to Johannes Wedenig, country representative for Unicef in Malawi about the situation there.I’ve been talking to Johannes Wedenig, country representative for Unicef in Malawi about the situation there.
He says climate change is making the weather hotter and more variable.He says climate change is making the weather hotter and more variable.
From 2000 to 2009 droughts effected 8.5 million people in Malawi, and floods affected 1.2 million. From 2010 to 2016 we have already reached 8.4 million people affected by drought and 875,000 by flooding. So we will see at least a third more over the decade if the trend continues.From 2000 to 2009 droughts effected 8.5 million people in Malawi, and floods affected 1.2 million. From 2010 to 2016 we have already reached 8.4 million people affected by drought and 875,000 by flooding. So we will see at least a third more over the decade if the trend continues.
But I’ve seen from my own experience that it’s the variability of weather phenomena that poses the greatest challenges to farmers in Malawi, especially when combined with an already fragile situation. People are selling their last assets and so are going into the next cycle even poorer, and unpredictability makes it very hard to plan and adapt.But I’ve seen from my own experience that it’s the variability of weather phenomena that poses the greatest challenges to farmers in Malawi, especially when combined with an already fragile situation. People are selling their last assets and so are going into the next cycle even poorer, and unpredictability makes it very hard to plan and adapt.
Wedenig says these changes affect the poor disproportionately.Wedenig says these changes affect the poor disproportionately.
I’ve travelled widely in Africa but when I got here last year I was really shocked by the amount of acutely malnourished children. You wouldn’t necessarily expect to see such a severe impact here but Malawi shows the impact of climate change compounded by other factors such as soil degradation, population pressure and an over-reliance on a single crop (food source) as a result of past policy decisions.I’ve travelled widely in Africa but when I got here last year I was really shocked by the amount of acutely malnourished children. You wouldn’t necessarily expect to see such a severe impact here but Malawi shows the impact of climate change compounded by other factors such as soil degradation, population pressure and an over-reliance on a single crop (food source) as a result of past policy decisions.
My colleague John Vidal was in Malawi at the end of last year, and wrote movingly about the food shortages there. Here is his piece.My colleague John Vidal was in Malawi at the end of last year, and wrote movingly about the food shortages there. Here is his piece.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.56am GMTat 8.56am GMT
8.46am GMT8.46am GMT
08:4608:46
Murithi MutigaMurithi Mutiga
In east Africa, concerns are growing that the continent’s second highest peak, Mt Kenya, could be totally ice free within decades.In east Africa, concerns are growing that the continent’s second highest peak, Mt Kenya, could be totally ice free within decades.
The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that 80% of East Africa’s glaciers have been lost since 1900. Mt Kenya has lost 92% of its glacial clover over the last century.The United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that 80% of East Africa’s glaciers have been lost since 1900. Mt Kenya has lost 92% of its glacial clover over the last century.
Scientists are divided over the precise causes of the steady retreat of the glaciers but many blame rising temperatures driven by climate change.Scientists are divided over the precise causes of the steady retreat of the glaciers but many blame rising temperatures driven by climate change.
The consequences have been dire for locals. Glacial melt is one of the contributors to river flow in the region and many rivers have been drying up in recent years.The consequences have been dire for locals. Glacial melt is one of the contributors to river flow in the region and many rivers have been drying up in recent years.
Seven million people depend on agriculture fed by the vital Mt Kenya water catchment area, which provides the bulk of the tea and coffee exports that are critical to Kenya’s economy. The area also hosts heavily visited national parks and reserves.Seven million people depend on agriculture fed by the vital Mt Kenya water catchment area, which provides the bulk of the tea and coffee exports that are critical to Kenya’s economy. The area also hosts heavily visited national parks and reserves.
Although Africa has made a negligible contribution to the greenhouse emissions that cause climate change, many parts of the continent are expected to bear a great burden from the results of climate change.Although Africa has made a negligible contribution to the greenhouse emissions that cause climate change, many parts of the continent are expected to bear a great burden from the results of climate change.
Mathenge wa Iregi, who as a Gikuyu elder has spent many years offering prayers in the forests of Mt Kenya, says he does not need scientists to point out the dramatic changes upending people’s lives and considers the stance of climate-change skeptics like US president-elect Donald Trump baffling.Mathenge wa Iregi, who as a Gikuyu elder has spent many years offering prayers in the forests of Mt Kenya, says he does not need scientists to point out the dramatic changes upending people’s lives and considers the stance of climate-change skeptics like US president-elect Donald Trump baffling.
You just need to open your eyes. Mt Kenya was once a striking and impressive site and we even named it in reference to the glacial cover. Everything has changed within our lifetime. And that is simply because we human beings do not respect nature.You just need to open your eyes. Mt Kenya was once a striking and impressive site and we even named it in reference to the glacial cover. Everything has changed within our lifetime. And that is simply because we human beings do not respect nature.