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Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live | Global warning: ominous signs for climate in Trump administration – live |
(35 minutes later) | |
1.23am GMT | |
01:23 | |
Calla Wahlquist | |
Victoria, the most fire-prone state in Australia, overhauled its emergency management model following the devastating Black Saturday bushfires of 9 February 2009, which killed 173 people and destroyed two small alpine towns. | |
The result was a new control structure, Emergency Management Victoria, which operates out of the State Control Centre in Melbourne. | |
On a day with a fire danger rating of extreme or above, or in the event of a natural disaster, the room fills up with the heads of Victoria’s fire and flood agencies. | |
Steve Riley, manager of the centre, talked us through it. Here’s the interview: | |
1.16am GMT | |
01:16 | |
We’re going to wrap up our Q&A with Jason Roberts in Antarctica now. Thanks to everyone for all the excellent questions. And thanks especially to Jason for taking the time out of his research down there to engage with us all. Apologies to those answers we didn’t get to. | |
To close it off, here’s one last question and answer. | |
@MikeySlezak Is Antarctic volume being affected by climate change. The deniers all say ant ice is increasing. | |
And Jason’s answer: | |
This is a question that we hear often, and it’s great that people are still asking it, and want to know the answer. There is some confusion around this due to the changing amount of sea ice, and confusion between it and grounded ice. | |
The area of sea ice is changing, due mainly to changes in the ocean currents and wind, moving the sea ice around and packing it together in areas. The ice on Antarctica (the so called grounded ice) is decreasing. | |
Like any big land mass, things vary from area to area, but overall Antarctica is losing ice. We have several independent lines of evidence to support that. The most direct way is that satellites and aircraft (including the project I’m currently in Antarctica working on) measure the height of the surface of the ice sheet using lasers and radars. They show that many of the outlet glaciers and surrounding ice catchments are lowering, which can only happen if they are losing ice. The second way is that the gravitational field of the ice can be measured from space, we can “weigh the ice sheet” and it is weighing less over time. | |
Again like any big area, things can change from year to year, but overall the pattern is that Antarctica is losing grounded ice, and especially the smaller (and therefore quicker to respond to any changes) West Antarctic region. | |
1.04am GMT | |
01:04 | |
Mike Bowers | |
Kiribati has a permanent population of around 100,000, over half live on the densely populated South Tarawa. Fresh water is drawn from wells that tap into a “water lens” which is a convex layer of fresh water that lays on top of the denser salt water. | |
It is usually the only source of fresh water. But as sea level has been rising, the salinity of the water lens on some of the outer atolls has made it unusable for human consumption. | |
This photograph shows children bathing in one of these shallow wells in South Tarawa. | |
1.04am GMT | |
01:04 | |
HOUR 18: Rounded out with a jellyfish | |
Elle Hunt | |
Over the last 60 minutes – | |
Readers have had their sometimes fairly technical questions about Antarctica answered by Jason Roberts via email, direct from Casey Station – thanks to Jason and the Australian Antarctic Division for their contribution | |
Roberts commented on the seasonal closure of the British Antarctic Survey’s Halley VI research station on the Brunt Ice Shelf, announced earlier this week as a result of uncertainty over cracks in the ice | |
We flagged a march in Sydney on Saturday, organised by Greenpeace Australia to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration | |
Mikey Slezak and WWF Australia together made you even more aware of penguins on Penguin Awareness Day (let us know when you’d like us to stop) | |
Mikey let his professionalism give way to panic (and let me just say, if Mikey’s panicking – so should the rest of us) | |
Responding to Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from New Zealand, a reader shared a graph of 400,000 years’ data to show that the worst may be yet to come | |
And we heard from Lisa Gershwin about how climate change may affect jellyfish | |
To come: reporting from Australia and we’ll venture into Asia. | |
12.57am GMT | |
00:57 | |
Elle Hunt | |
I see we are being offered access to some poor scientist stuck out in Antarctica. | |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/giant-iceberg-poised-to-break-off-from-antarctic-shelf-larsen-c | |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/17/british-antarctic-station-halley-vi-to-shut-down-winter-crack-in-ice | |
I bet he is having a cracking time :( | |
As Matthew2012 references below the line, a British research station in Antarctica has decided to relocate its 16 staff who were due to stay there over winter due to uncertainty over growing cracks in the ice. | |
The British Antarctic Survey said in a statement on Monday that the Halley VI research station would shut down over winter due to concerns over changes to the Brunt ice shelf. A station relocation further inland away from the chasm is already underway. | |
Jason Roberts says: | |
Yeah, I saw in the news about Halley VI research station having to close down over winter. The biggest factors working in Antarctica are safety and looking after the environment. You are a long way/time away from any outside help, so you need to do things properly and in a safe manner. | |
I have never visited Halley, but imagine that it has been designed so that it can be closed down over winter and then brought back into operational order next summer, when conditions will be more favourable. The three Australian Antarctic research stations are built on rock, so luckily we don’t have to deal with this issue. I wish our British colleagues every luck with the relocation of Halley. | |
Do you remember when we couldn't get access to the Guardian journalists Alok Jha and Laurence Topham because they were stuck in ice while reporting on, er, the lack of ice and they had to be rescued from the ice whose absence they had gone to report? | |
Thanks to BettyLousGettinOut for bringing this story from 2014 to my attention. I feel quite grateful to be reporting in relative comfort from the office in Sydney (today: overcast, grey). | |
12.54am GMT | |
00:54 | |
I’ve been in touch with Australian Jellyfish expert, Lisa-Ann Gershwin – Director of the Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Services. | |
I just got this excellent photo from Jellyfish expert @LisaGershwin: "Here's a photo of me working hard in my Jellyfish-bloom office." pic.twitter.com/1EmBxgir4q | |
She’s written this Facebbok post for us, discussing the threat of Jellyfish taking over as the climate warms. While there’s been a lot of talk of jellyfish doing well and filling the oceans, she says not all jellyfish will be winners. | |
12.50am GMT | |
00:50 | |
Elle Hunt | |
Another answer from Antarctica. | |
@ Jason Roberts | |
“The last time we were in what’s called an interglacial - when we didn’t have the big ice sheets in the northern hemisphere – that was about 120,000 years ago when the climate was about what it’s like now,” Roberts says. | |
This is perhaps an opportunity to clear up a question I had which is the ice cores are of very different lengths with Epica Dome C being the most noted at 800,000 years. | |
Is the reason that we don't have ice cores longer than 123,000 years in Greenland because : | |
A) there is believed to be no permanent ice then? | |
or | |
B) simply that the ice sheets moved at this time breaking the usable cores? | |
or | |
C) pressure and geothermal energy has melted the ice from below? | |
Jason Roberts said: | |
That’s a very good question, and slightly outside my field of study, which is strictly Antarctica, but I’ll have a go at answering it. I think there is some evidence of older ice in Greenland than 123,000 years, but none that has been successfully recovered in an ice core, and more importantly dated. In general Greenland is much closer to the equator than Antarctica, and is more sensitive to warming air temperatures, so we think that during extended warm periods it would be a much smaller ice sheet and not extend to the coast like it currently does. | |
When you drill an ice core, because of the way the ice had flowed over tens of thousands of years, the layers of ice that fell in any year get thinner and thinner, making it much more difficult to date the bottom of an ice core. In addition, the ice slowly moves so it can get folded up (think of the patterns your can see in rocks in road cuttings), and this disturbance in the ice at the bottom can make it very hard to use the very bottom of an ice core. | |
Another factor for Greenland is that it is much smaller than Antarctica, so it just takes less time for the flowing ice to move to the edge and be lost to the ocean. So the ice gets replaced over much shorter timescales than in Antarctica. | |
The geothermal energy question is good. In fact there is liquid water found at the base of Greenland in places, including the NEEM core which reached the folded ice from the last interglacial period. So yes, this is also a factor – mostly it is just a question of how long it takes for new snow to completely move to the bottom of the ice and get discharged at the edges. | |
Trust that answered your question, Matthew2012. I must admit, I’m impressed by the level of technical knowledge being displayed below the line... | |
12.47am GMT | 12.47am GMT |
00:47 | 00:47 |
Elle Hunt | Elle Hunt |
Below the line, Erik Frederiksen has responded to a quote from Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst from the Otago Regional Council, in Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from Dunedin, New Zealand. | Below the line, Erik Frederiksen has responded to a quote from Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst from the Otago Regional Council, in Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from Dunedin, New Zealand. |
From the article: | From the article: |
Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst for the Otago Regional Council. | Dr Sharon Hornblow, a natural risks analyst for the Otago Regional Council. |
“With the issue of sea-level rise we are looking at big storms increasing in frequency and severity...so people that would ordinarily have a fairly low risk of being flooded by the sea may now expect that adverse event to happen every ten years rather than every 100 years.” | “With the issue of sea-level rise we are looking at big storms increasing in frequency and severity...so people that would ordinarily have a fairly low risk of being flooded by the sea may now expect that adverse event to happen every ten years rather than every 100 years.” |
Notice how far CO2 has blown off the graph, and hence how far temperature and sea level have to rise to equilibrate with just our current forcing. | Notice how far CO2 has blown off the graph, and hence how far temperature and sea level have to rise to equilibrate with just our current forcing. |
We could blow much further off that chart. | We could blow much further off that chart. |
(The graph of 400,000 years of data Erik meant to link to is here.) | (The graph of 400,000 years of data Erik meant to link to is here.) |
Eleanor noted that 2016 was the hottest year on record for New Zealand, with droughts in the North Island and 11m of rain on the west coast of the South Island. | Eleanor noted that 2016 was the hottest year on record for New Zealand, with droughts in the North Island and 11m of rain on the west coast of the South Island. |
Eleanor is based in Dunedin and says the southern university town is being seen as a litmus test for how the rest of the country may fare in the coming years, with numerous flat, low-lying beach side communities built on marshy land mere metres above the sea. | Eleanor is based in Dunedin and says the southern university town is being seen as a litmus test for how the rest of the country may fare in the coming years, with numerous flat, low-lying beach side communities built on marshy land mere metres above the sea. |
“It all comes down to the fact that New Zealanders love to live by the ocean,” Dr Hornblow told Eleanor. “But if we were planning those homes with the wisdom we have today, we would not have people living there at all, or be building on those flat areas so close to the sea.” | “It all comes down to the fact that New Zealanders love to live by the ocean,” Dr Hornblow told Eleanor. “But if we were planning those homes with the wisdom we have today, we would not have people living there at all, or be building on those flat areas so close to the sea.” |
12.38am GMT | 12.38am GMT |
00:38 | 00:38 |
I don’t normally write about personal things, but recently I’ve been thinking about people’s emotional responses to the devastation that climate change has been causing – and will cause in the future. | I don’t normally write about personal things, but recently I’ve been thinking about people’s emotional responses to the devastation that climate change has been causing – and will cause in the future. |
For years I’ve understood the crisis we’re facing, but I’ve managed to maintain a kind of professional distance from it – not feeling enormously strong emotions about it. | For years I’ve understood the crisis we’re facing, but I’ve managed to maintain a kind of professional distance from it – not feeling enormously strong emotions about it. |
But recently that’s change. Here are my thoughts about why. | But recently that’s change. Here are my thoughts about why. |
12.31am GMT | 12.31am GMT |
00:31 | 00:31 |
A question from Twitter this time, about a reported increase of ice and snow in Antarctica. | A question from Twitter this time, about a reported increase of ice and snow in Antarctica. |
@MikeySlezak Hello. A question for Jason Roberts in Antarctica: Is there actually an increase of ice/snow there or was that just a 'blip'? | @MikeySlezak Hello. A question for Jason Roberts in Antarctica: Is there actually an increase of ice/snow there or was that just a 'blip'? |
Jason Roberts responds: | Jason Roberts responds: |
Like anything involving such a big area as Antarctica, things vary a lot across the continent. From an Australian context, just think about floods and bushfires happening at the same time. | Like anything involving such a big area as Antarctica, things vary a lot across the continent. From an Australian context, just think about floods and bushfires happening at the same time. |
In general Antarctica as a whole is losing some ice, with this mainly happening in West Antarctica (the bit on the South American side of the Trans Antarctic Mountains). On the larger East Antarctic side, things are a bit more in balance, with some areas losing ice, and some currently gaining ice through extra snowfall. | In general Antarctica as a whole is losing some ice, with this mainly happening in West Antarctica (the bit on the South American side of the Trans Antarctic Mountains). On the larger East Antarctic side, things are a bit more in balance, with some areas losing ice, and some currently gaining ice through extra snowfall. |
Of course getting detailed measurements is difficult in Antarctica (there are only a few weather stations) so we rely a lot on satellites to make these measurements, so there is some uncertainty about just how large some of the changes are. | Of course getting detailed measurements is difficult in Antarctica (there are only a few weather stations) so we rely a lot on satellites to make these measurements, so there is some uncertainty about just how large some of the changes are. |
To make things harder, things are changing with time as well – again, just think in an Australian context, some years are wetter than others. | To make things harder, things are changing with time as well – again, just think in an Australian context, some years are wetter than others. |
12.26am GMT | 12.26am GMT |
00:26 | 00:26 |
In Sydney Australia, there is going to be a march on the first full day after Trump is inaugurated. Greenpeace and other NGOs will be there marching to demonstrate on both climate change, and women’s rights. | In Sydney Australia, there is going to be a march on the first full day after Trump is inaugurated. Greenpeace and other NGOs will be there marching to demonstrate on both climate change, and women’s rights. |
Updated | Updated |
at 12.29am GMT | at 12.29am GMT |
12.25am GMT | 12.25am GMT |
00:25 | 00:25 |
Another missive from the Casey Station on Antarctica. | Another missive from the Casey Station on Antarctica. |
I have another set for Jason! | I have another set for Jason! |
Also in the news, there appears to be more sea ice around Antarctica. Can you please explain how a warming climate can cause "more" sea ice to be present? What does this mean to the ice on the continent? | Also in the news, there appears to be more sea ice around Antarctica. Can you please explain how a warming climate can cause "more" sea ice to be present? What does this mean to the ice on the continent? |
Jason Roberts: | Jason Roberts: |
That’s an interesting question about the sea ice, and one that keeps coming up. | That’s an interesting question about the sea ice, and one that keeps coming up. |
While the air temperature and temperature at the surface of the ocean is important in forming sea ice, probably the biggest factor controlling how much sea ice is around Antarctica is the ocean currents (and the wind patterns over the water). These move the sea ice around, and can cause it to build up in certain areas as it all gets pushed together. Once this happens, it can influence the ocean, for example waves get damped out by the sea ice, which stop them breaking up the sea ice. So it is more to do with the changes in ocean and wind patterns than temperature. | While the air temperature and temperature at the surface of the ocean is important in forming sea ice, probably the biggest factor controlling how much sea ice is around Antarctica is the ocean currents (and the wind patterns over the water). These move the sea ice around, and can cause it to build up in certain areas as it all gets pushed together. Once this happens, it can influence the ocean, for example waves get damped out by the sea ice, which stop them breaking up the sea ice. So it is more to do with the changes in ocean and wind patterns than temperature. |
There isn’t much direct coupling between the changes in the sea ice and ice on the continent. Most Antarctic sea is only one year old (although there are areas of so-called “multi-year sea ice”), while the ice on the continent is much older, tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The things that affect the ice on the continent are the amount of snow that falls to replenish it, the air temperature over summer for melting it, and how stable the ice shelves are that help hold back the glaciers. | There isn’t much direct coupling between the changes in the sea ice and ice on the continent. Most Antarctic sea is only one year old (although there are areas of so-called “multi-year sea ice”), while the ice on the continent is much older, tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The things that affect the ice on the continent are the amount of snow that falls to replenish it, the air temperature over summer for melting it, and how stable the ice shelves are that help hold back the glaciers. |
Keep your questions coming below the line. | Keep your questions coming below the line. |
12.21am GMT | 12.21am GMT |
00:21 | 00:21 |
WWF Australia has jumped on the penguin awareness day bandwagon too, and included a some punny jokes in their Facebook post. | WWF Australia has jumped on the penguin awareness day bandwagon too, and included a some punny jokes in their Facebook post. |
12.18am GMT | 12.18am GMT |
00:18 | 00:18 |
Elle Hunt | Elle Hunt |
Jason Roberts of the Australian Antarctic Division has replied to CgGc13’s question below the line on the impact of the breaking up of the Lambert ice sheet. | Jason Roberts of the Australian Antarctic Division has replied to CgGc13’s question below the line on the impact of the breaking up of the Lambert ice sheet. |
Questions for Jason Roberts when he comes on. In recent news, the Lambert ice sheet (shelf) is setting up to break apart again. When this goes, what will the result be for West Antarctica? Do you see this having any impact on the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet? | Questions for Jason Roberts when he comes on. In recent news, the Lambert ice sheet (shelf) is setting up to break apart again. When this goes, what will the result be for West Antarctica? Do you see this having any impact on the much larger East Antarctic ice sheet? |
Jason says: | Jason says: |
The ice shelf that has a major rift in it is the Larsen ice shelf. Parts of this ice shelf collapsed around 10 years ago, that time is just disintegrated, while this time in looks like calving a big iceberg. The previous collapse reduced the forces holding back the glaciers that feed this ice shelf, and the speed up (more than doubling their speed) in the following years, although I think the most recent studies are showing that they are starting to slow back down. We can probably expect similar behaviour when this shelf calves this time. | The ice shelf that has a major rift in it is the Larsen ice shelf. Parts of this ice shelf collapsed around 10 years ago, that time is just disintegrated, while this time in looks like calving a big iceberg. The previous collapse reduced the forces holding back the glaciers that feed this ice shelf, and the speed up (more than doubling their speed) in the following years, although I think the most recent studies are showing that they are starting to slow back down. We can probably expect similar behaviour when this shelf calves this time. |
On a global scale, the glaciers feeding the Larsen are fairly small and don’t contain a huge amount of ice. But their significance is more that they are the canary in the coal mine, showing us how vulnerable these ice shelves are to changes in the surrounding ocean. | On a global scale, the glaciers feeding the Larsen are fairly small and don’t contain a huge amount of ice. But their significance is more that they are the canary in the coal mine, showing us how vulnerable these ice shelves are to changes in the surrounding ocean. |