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Global warning: Australia and Asia predict climate cost of Trump's agenda – live Global warning: Australia and Asia predict climate cost of Trump's agenda – live
(35 minutes later)
3.07am GMT
03:07
HOUR 20: Through the smog
Elle Hunt
We started on Lizard island and went all the way to China, by way of the Tumblrverse and a possible planet populated only by carp.
“There’s no time to lose”: a coral reef scientist urges governments to act on carbon emissions
Street violence over water supplies not some future dystopia, but a present reality in Tamil Nadu, southern India
John Connor, chief executive of the Climate Institute, comments on the slow-moving gains of climate policy
China correspondent Tom Phillips reports back from one of the largest solar farms on Earth in Qinghai province
Millennial lobby group Generation Zero gets to advocates young in New Zealand
The worst mangrove dieback in recorded history in Australia’s Northern Territory, and the ramifications for that coastline
Smog from China aggravates a severe air pollution problem in Hong Kong
Mikey Slezak looks to the future
Calla Wahlquist with the latest on “fire behaviour” analysis in Victoria, Australia’s most fire-prone state
China doubles down on its pledge to cut carbon emissions – no matter what the Donald may do
Meanwhile, here’s the carbon countdown again – only 27.5% of the total carbon budget remaining in tons (CO2-e), if we want to to limit human-induced warming to less than 2C.
And here’s a thoughtful response to CassandrasVoice’s earlier question about how long – specifically – we’ve got before climate change has severe enough impact on the majority for us to act.
Been trying to find similar information for the last 5 years. I believe if the general public were to know how climate change will impact on their day to day living, as well as when these changes will occur, there would be many more involved in climate action. But scientists are conservative creatures and putting up such predictions would inevitably be very difficult due to inherent uncertainties in the modelling, which relies on very complex algorithms. There would also be cries from the tired old deniers of alarmism which may cause wholesale derailment of any climate action. And most people I feel, would rather be ignorant of the impending doom that awaits them.
Updated
at 3.08am GMT
3.04am GMT
03:04
Tom Phillips
Li Shuo, a Beijing-based campaigner for Greenpeace, is among the activists hoping that China, the world’s largest polluter, will take up a greater leadership role on climate change in a post-Trump world.
Li is an expert in clean energy, air pollution and climate change and also studied US-China relations at Nanjing University in east China.
Writing in the Guardian today, Li argues that Trump’s election “casts a dark shadow on the prospect of future international climate cooperation” but says Beijing’s apparent willingness to take on a larger role offers some hope.
You can read Li’s full piece here:
3.00am GMT
03:00
I recently sat down over Skype with the chief executive of Greenpeace Australia Pacific, David Ritter.
I pressed him on whether or not the election of Trump in the US meant that the public has stopped caring for climate change. He was adamant that was not the case.
“There’s much that might be said about this election but i don’t think we can in any way treat it as a mandate for inaction,” he said.
“One of the sad ironies of protest electoral votes may be that some of those who have been most left behind by an economic system that is deepening inequality, and are lashing out and voting for candidates seen as anti-establishment, are also people that are at the greatest risk from global warming when we see extreme weather events, we see extreme temperatures and so on. So I don’t think there’s any doubt that inequality and climate change are intimately, intimately connected.”
Check out the full video below. And tweet your comments or thoughts to me at @mikeyslezak or to David at @David_Ritter, or leave them below in the comments.
2.53am GMT
02:53
Tom Phillips
The war on global warming is “a responsibility we must assume for future generations,” Chinese president told the world’s economic elite in Davos this week, signalling that Beijing would stay true to its pledge to cut carbon emissions, even if Donald Trump did not.
China has several reasons for sticking to its guns.
Firstly, there is consensus in China that the country is likely to be among the biggest victims of climate change: a 2015 government report warned rising sea levels, temperatures, and rainfall posed a real and present danger to hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens.
Melting glaciers in China’s extreme west and the desertification of large swaths of land in the north have set alarm bells ringing in Beijing.
Secondly, Beijing understands it must take action against deadly episodes of air pollution that are fuelling increasing public rage. China’s leaders view climate change mitigation as an effective argument with which to take on the powerful energy sector responsible for the smog, which is blamed for up to one million premature deaths per year.
Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, Beijing sees huge economic benefits in transitioning towards a consumption and services based low carbon economy and becoming a world-leader in the energy technologies of the future. Already its global dominance of the renewables market is becoming clear through billions of dollars of overseas investment last year in countries from Australia to Brazil and Pakistan.
China is now the world’s largest investor in clean energy and recently unveiled plans to pump more than $360bn into renewable energy sources by 2020.
Finally, there is the question of soft power. With a climate denier now occupying the White House, some in Beijing see a golden opportunity to boost China’s global standing by spearheading the war on global warming.
Xi’s speech at the World Economic Forum - in which he urged the world to “meet the challenges of climate change” and praised the Paris climate deal as “a hard-won achievement” - suggests China may be preparing to do just that.
“History,” the Chinese president told his audience to loud applause, “is created by the brave.”
2.50am GMT
02:50
Calla Wahlquist
Lightning struck bushland east of the coastal Victorian town of Wye River on 19 December, 2015. On 25 December the fire burned the town, destroying 116 homes.
Most of the residents had already been evacuated on the order of fire authorities, who mapped the fire behaviour, with astonishing accuracy, five days earlier.
The mapping system, called Phoenix, allows fire behaviour analysts to input data about the terrain, dryness of the fuel, predicted temperatures, and predicted wind patterns, and come up with a predicted image of fire behaviour.
Until 2010, this was done with considerably less accuracy using a pocket calculator and a slide-rule, crosshatching on paper maps. As fire behaviour analyst Andy Ackland explained in the video below, the mapping system also predicts the occurrence of convection currents, where a blast of hot air pushes through the inversion layer of the atmosphere. That’s one of the key conditions of a firestorm.
The system is used to inform public warnings and help firefighters prioritise when there are multiple fires on the same day (bushfires tend to come in crops of 12, Emergency Management commissioner Craig Lapsley said). It is also used in a strategic sense to figure out which power lines are most likely to cause devastating bushfires.Ackland said it is increasingly used to map potential changes in bushfire risk caused by long-term climate change, which is drying out the mountain ash forests around Victoria and leaving them more prone to a severe bushfire.
“Some of the most extreme fuel loads that you would see anywhere in the state are that type of mountain ash fuel,” Darrin McKenzie, deputy chief fire officer of Forest Fire Management said.
Like many Australian trees, mountain ash has evolved to use fire to regenerate, shedding long ribbons of bark to create fuel. That strategy backfires in a catastrophic fire Black Saturday in February 2009, which burned hot enough to kill the mountain ash seeds and, with that, jeopardise the whole alpine ecosystem.
Updated
at 2.52am GMT
2.41am GMT
02:41
An interesting comment below the line.
What one comes away with from this and many of the comments here, is that it will be the China, unbelievable only a few years ago, that will be the global power leading sustainability. I never thought that in my life time I would see the inevitable decline of the USA and the rise of another superpower; and less so that that would be China. Trump and the altright have done an extraordinary thing in such a short time.
2.41am GMT
02:41
Earlier today I posted an opinion piece I wrote today about panic and despair, and other emotions a lot of people feel when writing about climate change.
In that piece I mention a moment I felt almost panicked, while I was half-way through James Bradley’s brilliant novel Clade, which is set a few decades in the future. Here’s something James has written for the blog today about the process of writing a book about the future of climate change, as that change was happening:
Back in 2012, when I began writing the book that would become Clade a lot of what I was writing was science fiction. Although there was no question climate change was an urgent problem, or that its effects were already being felt, most of the direr predictions still lay somewhere over the horizon.
Yet as I wrote a peculiar and discomfiting thing began to occur. Events I was weaving into the fabric of the novel – the release of methane from the seafloor and the permafrost, mass die-offs of wildlife, the breakup of the Antarctic ice sheets, even changes in the Earth’s rotation due to the shifting weight of melting ice – started to move out of the pages of the book and into reality.
The sense of hastening intensifies with every passing day. A decade ago it was possible to say the window for stopping dangerous climate change was closing, but that’s no longer true. If you live in the Pacific, or Africa, or many other parts of the world dangerous climate change is already here. The question is no longer whether we can avert dangerous climate change but whether we can avert a runaway climate catastrophe.
There are days when I wonder whether continuing to believe that might be possible isn’t simply denial, a refusal to confront the truth. Speak to any scientist working in a field connected to climate change and you will quickly encounter a deep seam of despair. What is happening is occurring so quickly, so irrevocably it often seems overwhelming.
Yet another part of me knows this sort of despair is self-fulfilling. Change doesn’t come from giving up, it comes from practical action and engagement. But it also requires hope, and hope requires we believe change is possible.
2.37am GMT
02:37
Benjamin Haas
Hello from smoggy Hong Kong.
This the Hong Kong harbour, captured 6 hours apart. The Air Quality Index is 128 right now. #airquality #airpollution #cough pic.twitter.com/5UYhK6XCyo
Despite its reputation as a futuristic global city, Hong Kong has terrible air quality and the government has been slow to respond to the problem. Nearly all government pollution targets far exceed World Health Organization recommendations.
In terms of PM2.5, tiny particles that cause haze and have been linked to cancer, government targets are three times higher than the WHO. Even during the best year for deadly PM2.5, levels were still more than twice WHO guidelines.
Congested roads flanked by skyscrapers cause a “street canyon” effect, where pollution caused by road traffic can be trapped and recirculate, exacerbating the problem.
Hong Kong’s port, one of the busiest in the world, is also a massive source of bad air. Ships are only required to switch to cleaner fuels when docked at port, so the entire journey sailing through the city’s waters is emitting high levels pollution. On top of that, almost all of Hong Kong’s power comes from fossil fuels.
Lastly, let’s not forget Hong Kong’s neighbor to the north: China. Smog from China often wafts into Hong Kong, aggravating an already severe problem.
Air pollution in Hong Kong vs Beijing last night. Hong Kong 4+ times WHO levels for deadly pollutant pm2.5, Beijing clear #climatewarning pic.twitter.com/bDANavJdlN
Hong Kong 12 hours after last tweet: air pollution blown away. Here's how my air monitor stacks up against gov readings #climatewarning pic.twitter.com/X4aMWrRu45
2.30am GMT2.30am GMT
02:3002:30
Helen DavidsonHelen Davidson
About 20% of Australia’s coastline, 11,000km is lined with 52 different species of mangroves, with more than a third of it in the Northern Territory. About 20% of Australia’s coastline – 11,000km – is lined with 52 different species of mangroves, with more than a third of it in the Northern Territory.
But last year something extraordinary occurred in the Gulf of Carpentaria, when scientists were informed of a mass dieback along a stretch about 700km long.But last year something extraordinary occurred in the Gulf of Carpentaria, when scientists were informed of a mass dieback along a stretch about 700km long.
It was the worst mangrove dieback in recorded history, covering 7,000 hectares, and came at the same time of the more highly publicised coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef. It was the worst mangrove dieback in recorded history, covering 7,000 hectares, and came at the same time as the more highly publicised coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef.
Believed due to a combination of factors related to climate change, the mangrove dieback has serious ramifications for the health of that coastline and future erosion, but went largely unnoticed at the time.Believed due to a combination of factors related to climate change, the mangrove dieback has serious ramifications for the health of that coastline and future erosion, but went largely unnoticed at the time.
“Essentially the plants died because of moisture stress and that’s linked with a combination of factors,” Professor Norman Duke, an expert in mangrove ecology from James Cook University, tells the Guardian. “Essentially the plants died because of moisture stress and that’s linked with a combination of factors,” Prof Norman Duke, an expert in mangrove ecology from James Cook University, tells the Guardian.
“High temperatures obviously, a lack of rainfall, and strangely also a temporary drop in sea level at the critical time when these plants were so stressed out because of the climate itself.“High temperatures obviously, a lack of rainfall, and strangely also a temporary drop in sea level at the critical time when these plants were so stressed out because of the climate itself.
All these factors are related to the southern oscillation index, the El Niño southern oscillation cycles, and that means that they’re related to climate in general.”All these factors are related to the southern oscillation index, the El Niño southern oscillation cycles, and that means that they’re related to climate in general.”
Duke says the dieback and subsequent response were pretty indicative of how the issue of climate change is dealt with in the NT.Duke says the dieback and subsequent response were pretty indicative of how the issue of climate change is dealt with in the NT.
“I may not be privy to all that’s going on but from my perspective, we just have to look at the example of the die back. The only reason we know is because of concerned community members sending in pictures to me and others saying: we think something’s going wrong but nobody else is interested. That took four, five, six months in 2015 from when it was first publicised.”“I may not be privy to all that’s going on but from my perspective, we just have to look at the example of the die back. The only reason we know is because of concerned community members sending in pictures to me and others saying: we think something’s going wrong but nobody else is interested. That took four, five, six months in 2015 from when it was first publicised.”
“It’s now well over a year since the dieback started and still there is no dedicated surveys going on on the ground to establish what has gone on, the extent of it, and what we can do about it and what are the consequences, which are potentially enormous.”“It’s now well over a year since the dieback started and still there is no dedicated surveys going on on the ground to establish what has gone on, the extent of it, and what we can do about it and what are the consequences, which are potentially enormous.”
Updated
at 2.49am GMT
2.28am GMT2.28am GMT
02:2802:28
Eleanor Ainge RoyEleanor Ainge Roy
When Pubudu Senanayake cycles through the Christchurch CBD he feels a quiet sense of satisfaction that New Zealanders are adapting their island home of 4.5m to be more climate-friendly. A NZ $150m cycle network in Christchurch and increased rail services in Auckland are recent wins.When Pubudu Senanayake cycles through the Christchurch CBD he feels a quiet sense of satisfaction that New Zealanders are adapting their island home of 4.5m to be more climate-friendly. A NZ $150m cycle network in Christchurch and increased rail services in Auckland are recent wins.
Senanayake is a member of youth-led lobby group Generation Zero, formed in 2011 with the aim of pushing the New Zealand government to take swifter action on climate change, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the year 2050. He says successive governments have not “understood the urgency with which we need to act”, with emissions increasing.Senanayake is a member of youth-led lobby group Generation Zero, formed in 2011 with the aim of pushing the New Zealand government to take swifter action on climate change, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the year 2050. He says successive governments have not “understood the urgency with which we need to act”, with emissions increasing.
Are ever-increasing emissions a 'moderate' response? | PM on #climatechange: moderate not extreme response needed https://t.co/kgP5DyebUJ pic.twitter.com/0faXjIO6F3Are ever-increasing emissions a 'moderate' response? | PM on #climatechange: moderate not extreme response needed https://t.co/kgP5DyebUJ pic.twitter.com/0faXjIO6F3
With over 30,000 members and high-profile, imaginative lobbying action, Generation Zero campaign as vociferously for leadership from government as they do for individual choices such as eating less meat or walking to work.With over 30,000 members and high-profile, imaginative lobbying action, Generation Zero campaign as vociferously for leadership from government as they do for individual choices such as eating less meat or walking to work.
A number of members, “empowered to act” while at university, have gone onto work for NGOs or in government, says Senanayake. “We try to increase youth participation in the civic process and help youth gain more skills and knowledge to have an impact at the policy level.”A number of members, “empowered to act” while at university, have gone onto work for NGOs or in government, says Senanayake. “We try to increase youth participation in the civic process and help youth gain more skills and knowledge to have an impact at the policy level.”
For Senanayake and his fellow climate warriors the pay-off is clear: a sustainable New Zealand for decades to come.For Senanayake and his fellow climate warriors the pay-off is clear: a sustainable New Zealand for decades to come.
“Climate change is not just an environmental issue. The symptoms are environmental but the issue is social and economic. And the urgency with which we need to take action makes me pretty devoted to it.”“Climate change is not just an environmental issue. The symptoms are environmental but the issue is social and economic. And the urgency with which we need to take action makes me pretty devoted to it.”
It’s official: 2016 was the WARMEST 🌡year on record in #NewZealand since 1909, based on NIWA’s seven-station series. #NZACS #climate pic.twitter.com/9FcW1v2hrlIt’s official: 2016 was the WARMEST 🌡year on record in #NewZealand since 1909, based on NIWA’s seven-station series. #NZACS #climate pic.twitter.com/9FcW1v2hrl
2.25am GMT2.25am GMT
02:2502:25
My colleague Tom Phillips has just filed this piece from Qinghai province in western China.My colleague Tom Phillips has just filed this piece from Qinghai province in western China.
Tom is back from spending two (freezing cold) days there on the Tibetan plateau visiting what is reputedly the largest solar farm on earth and one of a growing number of super-sized symbols of China’s quest to transform itself from climate villain to green superpower.Tom is back from spending two (freezing cold) days there on the Tibetan plateau visiting what is reputedly the largest solar farm on earth and one of a growing number of super-sized symbols of China’s quest to transform itself from climate villain to green superpower.
“The scale of the solar park is just extraordinary and building it was clearly a huge, huge task,” says Tom. “Engineers there told me thousands of workers had taken part in construction, braving temperatures as low as -20C to turn the region into a sea of silicon panels.”“The scale of the solar park is just extraordinary and building it was clearly a huge, huge task,” says Tom. “Engineers there told me thousands of workers had taken part in construction, braving temperatures as low as -20C to turn the region into a sea of silicon panels.”
You can read the full piece below and come back soon for more from Tom.You can read the full piece below and come back soon for more from Tom.
2.17am GMT2.17am GMT
02:1702:17
John Connor has been the chief executive of the Climate Institute in Australia for 10 years. In that time, he’s seen federal climate policy begin to be established, only to be dismantled and then replaced by ongoing stagnation.John Connor has been the chief executive of the Climate Institute in Australia for 10 years. In that time, he’s seen federal climate policy begin to be established, only to be dismantled and then replaced by ongoing stagnation.
I spoke with him and asked him whether the lack of movement meant the climate movement had been doing things wrong, whether Trump’s election was the death knell for the Paris Agreement, and what individuals could do to help prevent climate change.I spoke with him and asked him whether the lack of movement meant the climate movement had been doing things wrong, whether Trump’s election was the death knell for the Paris Agreement, and what individuals could do to help prevent climate change.
Watch the video here:Watch the video here:
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.27am GMTat 2.27am GMT
2.14am GMT2.14am GMT
02:1402:14
Michael SafiMichael Safi
Parched reservoirs, street violence over dwindling water supplies, and the emergence of a “water mafia” sound like some fevered vision of a future dystopia. Except, all three are already happening in parts of southern India, and most acutely in Tamil Nadu.Parched reservoirs, street violence over dwindling water supplies, and the emergence of a “water mafia” sound like some fevered vision of a future dystopia. Except, all three are already happening in parts of southern India, and most acutely in Tamil Nadu.
One of India’s wealthiest and best developed states, Tamil Nadu is nonetheless in the grip of its worst water shortage on record. This year’s monsoon brought less than half the usual rainfall. The reservoirs that supply Chennai, the capital, are at around 13% capacity – and the state still must weather six hot months before the monsoon rains returns in July.One of India’s wealthiest and best developed states, Tamil Nadu is nonetheless in the grip of its worst water shortage on record. This year’s monsoon brought less than half the usual rainfall. The reservoirs that supply Chennai, the capital, are at around 13% capacity – and the state still must weather six hot months before the monsoon rains returns in July.
Rural areas already appear to already be in crisis: India’s human rights agency estimates at least 106 farmers have killed themselves in the past month.Rural areas already appear to already be in crisis: India’s human rights agency estimates at least 106 farmers have killed themselves in the past month.
It isn’t all down to climate change. “The way Tamil Nadu is geographically rendered denies it access to precipitation,” says Jayshree Vencatesan, the managing trustee at the environmental group, Care Earth Trust. Mismanagement of crops and existing water resources also takes some share of the blame.It isn’t all down to climate change. “The way Tamil Nadu is geographically rendered denies it access to precipitation,” says Jayshree Vencatesan, the managing trustee at the environmental group, Care Earth Trust. Mismanagement of crops and existing water resources also takes some share of the blame.
But the annual monsoon season, the state’s lifeline, is bringing less rain than it used to. And when it does finally pour, the storms are intense and brutal, causing destructive floods of the kind that have ravaged Chennai each December of the past two years, killing over 300 people.But the annual monsoon season, the state’s lifeline, is bringing less rain than it used to. And when it does finally pour, the storms are intense and brutal, causing destructive floods of the kind that have ravaged Chennai each December of the past two years, killing over 300 people.
And though researchers are yet to study the link, Vencatesan says the state is “consistently warmer” than in the past. “You don’t really have a great seasonality. So, you have a monsoon, that’s followed by an intense summer – and there’s an immediate drying up of the system,” she says.And though researchers are yet to study the link, Vencatesan says the state is “consistently warmer” than in the past. “You don’t really have a great seasonality. So, you have a monsoon, that’s followed by an intense summer – and there’s an immediate drying up of the system,” she says.
Tamil Nadu has been forced to beg surrounding states for help. In September, it won a legal battle with neighbouring Karnataka state for more access to water from the Cauvery, a river the two states share. But Karnataka too is desperately thirsty. The result was days of anti-Tamil violence in the streets of the Karnataka capital, Bangalore, including the torching of dozens of Tamil-owned vehicles and businesses. Demonstrators carried signs that read: “We will give blood, but not Cauvery.”Tamil Nadu has been forced to beg surrounding states for help. In September, it won a legal battle with neighbouring Karnataka state for more access to water from the Cauvery, a river the two states share. But Karnataka too is desperately thirsty. The result was days of anti-Tamil violence in the streets of the Karnataka capital, Bangalore, including the torching of dozens of Tamil-owned vehicles and businesses. Demonstrators carried signs that read: “We will give blood, but not Cauvery.”
Some unscrupulous water-tanker drivers have begun to exploit the situation. Vencatasan says hundreds are involved in buying water from farmers, and hauling it to villages where supplies are low. There they hock it for a steep markup. “They haven’t reached the point of forming cartels yet,” Vencatasan says. “But they are a water mafia.”Some unscrupulous water-tanker drivers have begun to exploit the situation. Vencatasan says hundreds are involved in buying water from farmers, and hauling it to villages where supplies are low. There they hock it for a steep markup. “They haven’t reached the point of forming cartels yet,” Vencatasan says. “But they are a water mafia.”
2.14am GMT2.14am GMT
02:1402:14
Elle HuntElle Hunt
We’ve collaborated with Tumblr to create a “quilt” of user-submitted messages and artwork about climate change for this Global Warning project. Here’s my new favourite submission:We’ve collaborated with Tumblr to create a “quilt” of user-submitted messages and artwork about climate change for this Global Warning project. Here’s my new favourite submission:
“A world full of carp is probably not the long-term goal”. Let us know if you disagree in the comments!“A world full of carp is probably not the long-term goal”. Let us know if you disagree in the comments!
2.10am GMT2.10am GMT
02:1002:10
After speaking with Anne Hoggett about the devastating bleaching that hit the Great Barrier Reef, I asked her what she thinks individuals can do to help stop climate change to protect the reef from bleaching.After speaking with Anne Hoggett about the devastating bleaching that hit the Great Barrier Reef, I asked her what she thinks individuals can do to help stop climate change to protect the reef from bleaching.
Here’s what she said:Here’s what she said:
Let our government know that you want them to take meaningful action to contain carbon emissions - now. There’s no time to lose.Let our government know that you want them to take meaningful action to contain carbon emissions - now. There’s no time to lose.
Throughout the afternoon, we’re going to hear from a number of people about what they think individuals can do to help stop climate change.Throughout the afternoon, we’re going to hear from a number of people about what they think individuals can do to help stop climate change.
2.07am GMT2.07am GMT
02:0702:07
HOUR 19: Adding sugar to water to mask saltHOUR 19: Adding sugar to water to mask salt
Elle HuntElle Hunt
I’ve got to say, the hours are flying by as we steer the live blog back to London. It’s 1pm here in Sydney, it’s pouring down with rain, and Mikey Slezak has just inhaled a cheeseburger in between blog posts.I’ve got to say, the hours are flying by as we steer the live blog back to London. It’s 1pm here in Sydney, it’s pouring down with rain, and Mikey Slezak has just inhaled a cheeseburger in between blog posts.
In the past hour:In the past hour:
Guardian Australia’s photographer extraordinaire Mike Bowers shared a shot and a story from his trip to Kiribati, featuring prominently in our coverage today as a site on the bleeding-edge of rising sea levelsGuardian Australia’s photographer extraordinaire Mike Bowers shared a shot and a story from his trip to Kiribati, featuring prominently in our coverage today as a site on the bleeding-edge of rising sea levels
Jason Roberts answered just one more question for us from Casey Station in AntarcticaJason Roberts answered just one more question for us from Casey Station in Antarctica
My colleague Calla Wahlquist reported back on how Victoria, the most fire-prone state in Australia, approaches bushfire managementMy colleague Calla Wahlquist reported back on how Victoria, the most fire-prone state in Australia, approaches bushfire management
David Tong, now of WWF New Zealand, gave a chilling account of household items being taken by rising sea levels in Kiribati – and locals putting sugar in their water “to counteract the salty taste”David Tong, now of WWF New Zealand, gave a chilling account of household items being taken by rising sea levels in Kiribati – and locals putting sugar in their water “to counteract the salty taste”
We heard from Lock the Gate, a group of Astralian farmers concerned about coal mining and gas extractionWe heard from Lock the Gate, a group of Astralian farmers concerned about coal mining and gas extraction
Michael Safi, the Guardian’s Asia correspondent, reported from Delhi on plans for the largest electricity rollout in historyMichael Safi, the Guardian’s Asia correspondent, reported from Delhi on plans for the largest electricity rollout in history
Even the Sydney Opera House faces problems posed by climate change, Guardian Australia’s Joshua Robertson foundEven the Sydney Opera House faces problems posed by climate change, Guardian Australia’s Joshua Robertson found
A coral reef biologist who’s been based on Lizard Island in far north Queensland for almost three decades reports back on the challengesA coral reef biologist who’s been based on Lizard Island in far north Queensland for almost three decades reports back on the challenges
Here’s a talking point for you to deliberate in the comments:Here’s a talking point for you to deliberate in the comments:
@mlle_elle I have a question about climate change, I'm not sure whether to be optimistic or pessimistic about the future?@mlle_elle I have a question about climate change, I'm not sure whether to be optimistic or pessimistic about the future?
Onwards and upwards.Onwards and upwards.
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.12am GMTat 2.12am GMT
2.01am GMT2.01am GMT
02:0102:01
Yesterday I spoke with coral reef biologists Anne Hoggett. She’s lived and worked on Lizard Island in remote far North Queensland for almost three decades. She is now director of the Australian Museum’s research station there.Yesterday I spoke with coral reef biologists Anne Hoggett. She’s lived and worked on Lizard Island in remote far North Queensland for almost three decades. She is now director of the Australian Museum’s research station there.
Lizard Island was at the epicentre of the disastrous bleaching that killed about a fifth of the coral on the entire Great Barrier Reef.Lizard Island was at the epicentre of the disastrous bleaching that killed about a fifth of the coral on the entire Great Barrier Reef.
Check out the interview below, where Anne describes what it has been like living there, and watching the impacts of climate change hit her remote home.Check out the interview below, where Anne describes what it has been like living there, and watching the impacts of climate change hit her remote home.
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.07am GMTat 2.07am GMT
1.55am GMT
01:55
Joshua Robertson
The business case for adapting to climate change has dawned on a growing number of organisations in Australia, including the stewards of the Sydney Opera House.
The opera house is among the 10 best business cases in Australia to show how it could be done, according to a Griffith University report launched last month.
The climate change risks to the World Heritage-listed building range from underground water leaks from rising sea levels and water pressure, damage from more severe storms with high winds, and flooding from more intense rainfall and run-off.
The opera house has now factored in a 90cm sea level rise into its 10-yearly building renewal program. Managers told the Griffith researchers that assuming the need for climate change adaptation in its investments was a responsible “use of taxpayers’ money”.
Other cases include the insurer Suncorp, which sees a growing cost of natural disasters in northern Australia in the form of cyclones, floods and hail storms as “the game changer and catalyst for change and action”.
Over the last seven years in Queensland alone, insurers paid out $1.44 in claims for every $1 they collected in premiums, the study said.
After Queensland’s costly 2011 floods, Suncorp assessed the cost of a levee to protect the flood-prone town of Roma at $11m – the same as it cost the government to provide emergency helicopter rescues for one flood.
“This presented a very strong business case for the [Queensland] government to fund the levee, which they did,” the study said.
Suncorp told the researchers that while the insurance industry has a “pretty good understanding of what the cost will look like”, this did not necessarily extend to the human costs, which are only apparent when disaster hits and insurers “turn up on the ground and start helping people rebuild their homes”.
“At that point, it becomes evident that there is a range of risks and damages that are not ‘carried on anyone’s balance sheet’, for instance, mental health issues,” the study said.
Updated
at 2.03am GMT
1.49am GMT
01:49
Elle Hunt
AlexMourinho raises an interesting point: could the way forward from our changing climate be posed by philosophy?
Philosophy in school.
Mandatory.
Thinking citizens is the only way out of this mess called civilisation.
On the subject of science intersecting with philosophy, on Wednesday I went scuba-diving off the north shore of Sydney with Peter Godfrey-Smith, an academic philosopher who’s written a book about the consciousness of cephalopods.
Other Minds: The Octopus, the Sea, and the Deep Origins of Consciousness is currently available in the US and due for release in the UK and Australia in February; Godfrey-Smith’s New York Times column about octopuses and ageing is a taster.
1.45am GMT
01:45
Michael Safi
Hello from Delhi, India’s heaving capital, where, inside government ministries, plans are being devised for the largest electricity rollout in history. India will need to supply power to nearly 600m new consumers by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. How they choose to do so matters to the entire planet.
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, takes climate change seriously. Extreme weather across the country, including droughts, storms, and the severest heat wave on record killed nearly 1,600 Indians, it was reported this week. Food yields are already estimated to have fallen by 6% because of higher temperatures – a phenomenon that might claim 160,000 Indian lives each year by 2050.
But Modi is also emphatic that climate change “is not of [India’s] making”. Historically, the country accounts for just 3% of the world’s total carbon emissions since 1890. India is unapologetic about potentially tripling its coal use by 2030 if it means connecting every village to the grid and powering new schools, jobs and homes for hundreds of millions of its citizens.
Averting a catastrophic increase in carbon emissions will come down to how much of that energy can be generated cleanly. India’s renewable energy target is hugely ambitious: an installed capacity of 175GW by 2022. To put that into perspective, the current capacity of India’s entire grid is around 310GW.
So far, India doesn’t appear to be on track to hit the 175GW target – but that’s missing the point. In pursuit of such a bold aim, it has already added nearly 15GW in renewable capacity, and attracted billions of dollars in investment. The southern state of Tamil Nadu is now the site of one of the world’s largest solar power plants. India’s total renewable capacity could increase by more than 50% in the next year alone. It has already predicted it will exceed its Paris targets by nearly 60% – and do so three years early.
So, while the next posts will explore the threats posed by climate change to India, it’s worth remembering: there’s some cause for optimism, too.
Updated
at 2.19am GMT
1.42am GMT
01:42
Lock the Gate is a large group of farmers and other citizens concerned about coal mining and gas extraction. They’ve successfully fought coal seam gas extraction along the east coast of Australia, and have emerged as a force to be reckoned with.
The group has just released an analysis suggesting coal mining is responsible for about half the dangerous particulate pollution in New South Wales.
Georgina Woods is the New South Wales campaign coordinator at Lock the Gate and has sent this in:
As well as dealing with more extreme droughts as global warming worsens, regional communities in Australia are suffering localised impacts of coal mining.
Lock the Gate Alliance, a network of community groups protecting their land and water from coal and gas mining, has today released analysis showing coal mining is responsible for the majority of dangerous particulate air pollution in New South Wales.
Roughly half of this is created by five of the biggest mines. They’re all in the Hunter Valley – an important agricultural region, which is home to renowned wineries and horse studs.
The state’s most-polluting coal mines are choking the Hunter Valley’s skies, damaging the health of local people and their children, contributing to the hundreds of deaths in NSW that are caused every year by particulate pollution.
This analysis is part of Lock the Gate’s submission to the NSW’s government’s Clean Air Plan, which closes for consultation today.
Updated
at 2.09am GMT
1.35am GMT
01:35
Elle Hunt
A big-picture question posed by CassandrasVoice in the comments: how long have we got?
This is a question I'd love answered by any expert who wants to weigh in:
Since a friend who works in sustainable agriculture said to me that she thought we had a 50:50 chance of becoming grandparents (i.e., that we had perhaps another 25 years before the world stops supporting human populations) I've been trying to find anything at all that quantifies the impending disaster. And it's hard to find! I read about increasing temperatures, rising seas, the sixth extinction, but it's still hard to find anybody willing to say: according to this model, if nothing changes, we have X years left before Specific Bad Things affect our daily lives.
Do you think that climate scientists should team up with communications experts and find a way to paint a stark picture of how things will (may) be, day to day, in the next generation? Just like putting faces to things like the refugee crisis helps move along the appetite for political change, it might help to have snapshots of different populations and how they'll suffer? Including and especially in the west?
It’s a tough one, but if you’ve got thoughts or ideas, we’d love to hear them.
1.31am GMT
01:31
We’ve heard about the impact of rising sea levels in Kiribati, and Guardian Australia’s Mike Bowers’ personal recollection of his visit there – now David Tong, now a campaigner at WWF in New Zealand, has written about his time in South Tarawa, an atoll of only 16 sq km of land, last September.
Love to Choi, Kiribati's #climate change officer, but he's wrong to say there are no deniers there. There are two. https://t.co/vK0mIgJakP
It’s quite a chilling account of living on the front line of rising sea waters.
“Climate change impacts are real and obvious. On my first day in Bairiki, I walked along the beach behind the President’s house. The sea wall was broken in several places, and the beach was littered with rubbish. I couldn’t understand where all the rubbish came from – were the broken TVs from passing cruise ships or something?
“My I-Kiribati colleagues explained that the rubbish on the beaches had mostly come from people’s houses. With the highest point on Tarawa only 3m above sea level, storm surges and king tides flood homes, pulling people’s property back with them. Over the following weeks and months, the sea dumps its takings back on the beaches.”
David Tong said that a storm surge following Cyclone Pam flooded South Tarawa’s maternity hospital, with flooding reaching hundreds of metres inland, killing pandanus trees and destroying taro pits.
“I heard talk of people putting sugar in their water, to counteract the salty taste. ... Already on Abiang, the nearest outlying island to Tarawa, salt water is bubbling up from the soil at king tides.”
I-Kiribati are working to develop salt-resistant crops, and President Mamau has pledged to make a plan for every community and every island. “Our choices in the rich world will decide whether that’s possible,” said David Tong, who’s returning to Kiribati in February: “The place gets under your skin.”
1.23am GMT
01:23
Calla Wahlquist
Victoria, the most fire-prone state in Australia, overhauled its emergency management model following the devastating Black Saturday bushfires of 9 February 2009, which killed 173 people and destroyed two small alpine towns.
The result was a new control structure, Emergency Management Victoria, which operates out of the State Control Centre in Melbourne.
On a day with a fire danger rating of extreme or above, or in the event of a natural disaster, the room fills up with the heads of Victoria’s fire and flood agencies.
Steve Riley, manager of the centre, talked us through it. Here’s the interview:
1.16am GMT
01:16
We’re going to wrap up our Q&A with Jason Roberts in Antarctica now. Thanks to everyone for all the excellent questions. And thanks especially to Jason for taking the time out of his research down there to engage with us all. Apologies to those answers we didn’t get to.
To close it off, here’s one last question and answer.
@MikeySlezak Is Antarctic volume being affected by climate change. The deniers all say ant ice is increasing.
And Jason’s answer:
This is a question that we hear often, and it’s great that people are still asking it, and want to know the answer. There is some confusion around this due to the changing amount of sea ice, and confusion between it and grounded ice.
The area of sea ice is changing, due mainly to changes in the ocean currents and wind, moving the sea ice around and packing it together in areas. The ice on Antarctica (the so called grounded ice) is decreasing.
Like any big land mass, things vary from area to area, but overall Antarctica is losing ice. We have several independent lines of evidence to support that. The most direct way is that satellites and aircraft (including the project I’m currently in Antarctica working on) measure the height of the surface of the ice sheet using lasers and radars. They show that many of the outlet glaciers and surrounding ice catchments are lowering, which can only happen if they are losing ice. The second way is that the gravitational field of the ice can be measured from space, we can “weigh the ice sheet” and it is weighing less over time.
Again like any big area, things can change from year to year, but overall the pattern is that Antarctica is losing grounded ice, and especially the smaller (and therefore quicker to respond to any changes) West Antarctic region.
1.04am GMT
01:04
Mike Bowers
Kiribati: The 33 atolls and reef islands straddle the equator and are spread across an area of over 3 million square miles. The eastern Line Islands are the first place in the world to greet the sun everyday as the international date line has to bend around them so that they are on the same day as the rest of the group.
For the population of 100,000 the issues facing them are complex and urgent. Extreme weather events, storm surges and tides are eroding and threatening the precious land space.
More than half the population live on the main island of Tarawa. The delicate fresh water supplies that sit underneath most of the islands in what is called a water “lens” which is basically fresh water that floats on the denser salt water that surrounds the islands.
The encroaching sea is making much of this supply brackish and in some cases unusable, it is also affecting the soils and in some villages the former growing areas have become a saline desert which will not support any life.
Garbage and leaching from heavy metals which lie all over the islands also contaminate the precious water supplies. The infant and under 5 mortality rate sits at a shocking 56 deaths per 1000 live births (2015 UN Inter agency group) In 2014 the Kiribati Government purchased about 20 square kilometres on the island of Vanua Levu in Fiji to for Agricultural projects and fish farming.
For the people of Kiribati climate change is not an argument, they live with the changes every day in complex ways that make their lives difficult and their future uncertain. They seem genuinely surprised when you tell them that there are people in Australia who don’t believe that anything is happening to the climate of the world.
As I photographed Toani Benson standing in water on the ruins of a shop on Abaiang Island where he used to fill his scooter as a school child in the mid nineties remarked “perhaps you should bring those people here.”
This photograph shows children bathing in one of these shallow wells in South Tarawa.
Updated
at 1.36am GMT
1.04am GMT
01:04
HOUR 18: Rounded out with a jellyfish
Elle Hunt
Over the last 60 minutes –
Readers have had their sometimes fairly technical questions about Antarctica answered by Jason Roberts via email, direct from Casey Station – thanks to Jason and the Australian Antarctic Division for their contribution
Roberts commented on the seasonal closure of the British Antarctic Survey’s Halley VI research station on the Brunt Ice Shelf, announced earlier this week as a result of uncertainty over cracks in the ice
We flagged a march in Sydney on Saturday, organised by Greenpeace Australia to coincide with Donald Trump’s inauguration
Mikey Slezak and WWF Australia together made you even more aware of penguins on Penguin Awareness Day (let us know when you’d like us to stop)
Mikey let his professionalism give way to panic (and let me just say, if Mikey’s panicking – so should the rest of us)
Responding to Eleanor Ainge Roy’s report from New Zealand, a reader shared a graph of 400,000 years’ data to show that the worst may be yet to come
And we heard from Lisa Gershwin about how climate change may affect jellyfish
To come: reporting from Australia and we’ll venture into Asia.